Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
California Energy Crisis
• Electricity and energy
• What happened in California?
• Utility deregulation in NE and Maine
• Future trends, including renewables
• The big picture
What is electricity?
• Electricity is a naturally occurring physical
force created by the interaction of
negatively and positively charged particles.
– Benjamin Franklin, 1752 (electricity transmitted from
lightning to iron spike to key)
– Michael Faraday, 1831 (generated electricity by rotating
magnets around a coil of wires)
– Thomas Edison, 1882 (world’s first electricitygenerating
plant, NY)
Electricity Flow, 1999
(Quadrillion Btu)
Consumer Prices, 1999
Electricity Net Generation by
Source, 1999
California Utility Generation by
Primary Energy Source, 1998
Electricity Net Generation at
Electric Utilities
Vertically Integrated Utility
Generation
(Power Plants)
Transmission
Networks
(Grid)
Local
Distribution
System
Final
Customers
(Retail Sales)
Why Deregulate?
ANSWER: Inefficient market
(move from monopoly to market and
choice)
CALIFORNIA DEREGULATION
Then Now
• Utilities owned generating • Plants sold to private
plants, prices regulated companies. Prices set at
auction by CA Power
Exchange.
• Utilities owned
transmission lines • Transmission lines, grids
in Independent System
Operator (np)
• Utilities own distribution
systems to homes and
businesses • Utilities still own
distribution systems
California Energy Crisis
Wholesale Electricity Costs
• 1999 $7.4 billion
• 2000 $27 billion
• 2001(6mo) >$20 billion
– CA now has longterm contracts (peak purchase)
Who are the Players?
• Energy producers (natural gas, nuclear, coal,
other)
• Marketers/Traders (buysell energy and/or buy
sell electricity)
• Power Plants (Utilities and others)
• Transmission(Utilities, ISOs, RTOs)
• Distribution (Utilities to users)
• Regulators (State and Federal)
Who to blame?
• Generating capacity tight; few nonutility owners; few new
plants
• Long–term contracts not allowed; spot purchases required
• Demand increased 25%; supply increased 6% in 10 yrs
• Transmission lines/infrastructure constraints
• Natural gas prices much higher than normal
• California electricity rates frozen (at utilities’ request);
couldn’t pass price increases on to consumers
• Generators and fuel suppliers were reluctant to sell to
bankrupt utilities
• Poor sight by FERC, state regulators
UK Electricity Deregulation
New England Utilities
• Nine plants built since 1998. 30 plants
under construction.
• Demand at a steady pace.
• Increased dependence on natural gas.
• Utilities use long term contracts (20% spot)
• NE imports from other states (Canada, also)
New Approach to Deregulation
• Electricity is a special • Think distributed
commodity generation/”off grid”
• Better wholesale market • Improve transmission
design (less spot market infrastructure
use) • Use gas storage to
• Create realtime pricing moderate volatility
for consumers • Reevaluate regulatory
• Provide transparency, system
efficiency, choice • Use lifecycle analyses
• Add cogenerating • Anticipate surprises
capacity/rethink size
New Utility Generating Units
by year of entry into service
125 1,250
Number of
new units
100 1,000
75 750
50 500
25 250
Maximum
new size, MW
0 0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Sources: US Energy Information Administration; Rocky Mountain Institute
Natural Gas Overview
Power Shopping
A variety of distributed-generation technologies are available or under development.
Costs of producing power can vary widely, depending on location, size, use and fuel prices,
but here are estimates:
* Per kilowatt-hour, without subsidies. For comparison, the average U.S. retail electricity price
earlier this year 6.9 cents per kwh.
Source: Department of Energy; National Renewable Energy Laboratory;
American Wind Energy Association; manufacturers
Marketing Renewables
• Life cycle analysis/resource equity
– Goal of true cost of all energy sources
– Level playing field
• Cogeneration
– How/should/could renewables integrate with fossil fuels
– Production, storage, utilization issues
– Scale issues (distributed energy)
• Energy price and supply
– Conservation, efficiency, volatility, reliability, technology
– BP(solar), Shell(hydrogen, geothermal), Texaco(fuel
cells)
– Choice, diversity
Food for Thought
• 40% of world not on grid (>2 billion people)
• Increased energy demand in China ( 58%/yr)
• 20,000 gas wells drilled in US last 12 mos; deliverability
increased by 4%
• What happens when the world economy recovers?
Demand>supply
World Consumption of EndUse
Fuels, %
1997 11 Coal 8 2020
Forecast
1 Renewables 2
4 Heat 3
18 Gas 18
49 Oil 49