An era of

uncertainty
 Attack on America
 Strikes against Afghanistan & Iraq
 Economic global recession
 Arab spring
 Rise of ISIS
 Brexit
 Trump’s victory
Brexit; A blow to
globalization
 Nov 2016- Trump’s victory
 The shockwaves were felt as far away as Japan

 Future trend in Europe???

 The Coming Anarchy By Robert D. Kaplan

(Future wars on tribal, communal & ethnic
basis)
 End of 30 years’ dominance of Neo-liberalism
(gave thrust of globalization)….free market, free
trade, liberty, freedom
 Reaganomics & Thatchernomics
 Nativism, racism, Tribalism…best source for
human security.
 No place for immigrants
 Voting along nationalist or far-right lines.
Neoliberalism- Free trade,
minimum restrictions on
trade, de- regulation,
individual liberty,
common good, liberal
values, right to choose,
Trump has attacked
integration, open borders. Neoliberalism

It all benefitted elites & Trump’s radical foreign policy

MNCs
Shunned notion of the us
'upholding liberal values

Now Liberalism under Re-invented greatness in, “Make

question at its home America great again”,
ground Hilary stood for status quo.
Rise of far- right She & US media was much in
thrall of neoliberalism
 American exceptionalism (American liberal
values)…Back to isolation
 End of US global role?
 Philippines’ president announces , no more
dependence on US
 Back to state sovereignty?
 Era of Realism
 End of Liberalism & liberal values? All human
beings deserve respect, multiculturism
 End of Francis Fukuyuma’s history thesis …..the
liberal democracies is the future of the world
 France- Marine Le Pen.
 Nigel Farage in UK.
 Greet Wilders in Denmark
 Popularity of Markel (for accommodating
refugees) in Germany dented
 Rise of Modi,
 Rise of Islamic fundamentalism
 Xenophobia & racism
 3 US presidents, Reagan, Bush jr & Trump have
already eroded economic, political & social
liberalism
 Now drastic reorientation of the global order
 Failures of international institutions to uphold
values of liberty & human security
 Rise of unhindered realism, new alliances & the
decadence of liberal internationalism
 1. Controversy
 First, by staking out controversial stands on
legitimate issues – immigration and trade – in his
announcement speech on June 16, nearly 17 months before the general election,
when he called illegal immigrants from Mexico “
 2. Celebrity
 . Trump
That has continued due to the second reason for his success: celebrity

is probably the most famous, though far from the

richest, American billionaire.
 Cable news channel producers quickly figured that Trump was good for
ratings. As a result, he has received
three times as much
news coverage as all other Republican candidates
(at one point there were 17) put together.
 Trump had received the equivalent of $3 billion in free advertising from the media coverage his campaign
commanded.
 3. Populist Revolt Against Immigration and
Trade
 : ‘It Is Time for Us to Come Together’
 But immigration and trade seem virtually
certain to be at the top of the list. Trump bet his
whole campaign on the idea that popular
hostility to liberal immigration and free trade
policies would propel him to the White House.
 4. Voter frustration/ Silent Trump Vote
 . During the Obama presidency, Republican
voters have been increasingly disenchanted with
the party’s leaders. They were frustrated when, despite Republican capture of
the House of Representatives in 2010, 2012 and 2014 and the Senate in 2014, those leaders were

unable to turn campaign promises into laws.

 5. Outsiders Against Insiders
 6. America, the Divide
 Trump Triumphs Over Clinton With Promise of
Change
 Above all, the 2016 election made clear that
America is a nation deeply divided along racial,
cultural, gender and class lines.
 Under normal circumstances, one would expect the new president to attempt to rally the nation behind a message
of unity.
 But Trump will not be a normal president. He won the White House by waging one of the most divisive and
polarizing campaigns in American political history. It is entirely possible that he may choose to govern using the
same strategy of divide and conquer.
Trump
Rocks
The future-
 Globalization- Leading to discontentment
Liberals want the best
possible future for all of
mankind

Liberty & equality

Justice
HRs
 Neo-liberalism- with laissez-faire economic
liberalism. economic ideology based on
privatization, deregulation, globalization and tax
cuts.
 Freedom usually means to be free from
something, whereas Liberty usually means to
be free to do something, although both refer to
the quality or state of being free. Jefferson's use
of the terms almost always reflected those
meanings.
 Jeffersonian Perspective: Freedom, Liberty,
Rights
3. Trump’s cabinet
 US
 General James Mattis,

a known
Realist as Defence secretary
 Will Trump’s Working-Class Loyalists Pay the Price of His Economic Surge? A market upswing signals the

president-elect may be good for the economy after all — but mostly for the already wealthy .
•Mitt Romney run foreign policy
•An interventionist

•He ll hire & bring back

those who fought Iraq, Libya

 Secretary of State, Bob Corker, defender of Iraq
war, criticized Obama’s policy of reducing forces in
Afghanistan, critic of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons
•Trump’s choice of retired Lieutenant General
Mike Flynn, the former head of the Defense
Intelligence Agency and his chief national adviser
during the long campaign, to serve as his national
security adviser is also telling. As DIA chief from 2012 to
2014, Flynn pushed back against the White House narrative
that al-Qaeda’s “core” was “decimated,” and that ISIS was
the “junior varsity” team of terrorism. Flynn's military
career was primarily operational, with numerous combat
arms, conventional and special operations senior
intelligence assignments. He co-authored a report in
January 2010 through the Center for a New American
Security entitled Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making
Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan
Steve Bannon- chief strategist and Senior
Counselor for the Presidency of Donald
Trump. An Anti-globalist
Bannon was executive chair of Breitbart
News, a far-right
Bannon's association with the alt-right
movement, along with his aforementioned
alleged anti-Semitic remarks, have
contributed to accusations of white
nationalism Bannon denies the
characterization, telling the Hollywood
Reporter,
"I'm not a white nationalist,
I'm a nationalist.
I'm an economic nationalist
Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. ambassador to
Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations.

The choice of staunch partisans like Rudy Giuliani,

or a hard-right skeptic of multilateralism like
former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John
Bolton
Right-wing
media
mogul and
anti-
globalist
bomb-
thrower
Steve
Bannon as
White
House
chief
strategist
Nikki Haley as Ambassador to
and senior
UN
counselor.
An Indian -American
Farage as ambassador
to United States
 Willing to oppose Trump, some Senate
Republicans gain leverage
4. Domestic/ foreign policy
 Any moves by Donald Trump to ban Muslims from
entering the United States or bring back waterboarding to
interrogate suspects could have repercussions for some of his sprawling foreign
business interests -- from his golf course in Scotland to luxury resorts in Indonesia.
 A review of press releases published on the Trump Organization website shows that 15 of 25 new
acquisitions or joint ventures announced over the past five years were overseas. These include the
purchase of golf courses in Ireland and Scotland and deals to license his name to developers and
manufacturers in Dubai, Indonesia, India, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Mexico and Panama.
 The deals underscore the potential conflicts of interest Trump will face after he is sworn in as
president on Jan. 20 and his vulnerability to criticism that he is open to foreign influence. Foreign
governments could potentially seek to exploit Trump's business interests to affect his decision
making, or to punish him through his pocket book for decisions they object to.
 BACKLASH
 Trump could face a backlash against his
business interests in Middle Eastern and Asian
markets if he follows through with his
campaign promise to ban Muslims from
entering the United States, and continues to be
open to restoring waterboarding - a form of
interrogation widely viewed as torture - or
creating a national registry for Muslims,
analysts said.
 “If the Muslim registry is introduced, he will
have serious issues finding Muslim local
 Immigration
 Populism- Power of regular people in the control
of Govt. (Discontented people)
 Jobs/ outsourcing- Effect of free trade, economic
recession, effects of Globalization/Neoliberalism
•Populist mean interests of
 Made in America general people contrasting
 America first with the interests of the elite

 Make America great again •Economic populism

 Trump and Putin want to reset U.S.-Russian
relations on the basis of a shared worldview.
But that might just increase the chances of a
conflict.
 NATO , Ukraine, ME
 he's been interested in real estate
developments in Russia for 30 years
 EU & NATO
 Trump: "you will hear some things tomorrow"
 Britain tells Trump: 'There is no vacancy' for Farage as
ambassador to United States
 Blair to start anti-populist movement. He says
immigration is good for uk. Globalist vs populist is the
new politics. Divided we stand, united we rise.
 Scared of Russia
 Trump, “Policy of fear”
 Outcome seen as catastrophic across Europe
 Uncertainty of ties, future NATO
 France- Marine Le Pen.
 Nigel Farage in UK.
 Greet Wilders in Denmark
 Angela Merkel

Nationalist / populist
movements
 One test case could be China, which the Trump
Organization has identified as a “top priority
among high-potential emerging markets,”
according to a 2013 press release. On the
campaign trail, Trump threatened to label China
a currency manipulator and impose import
tariffs on Chinese imports.
 Suisheng Zhao, a China expert at the University
of Denver, said if Trump did impose tariffs and
more robustly challenged China’s interests in the
South China Sea, Beijing could tell Chinese
businesses to abandon any talks or deals with the
Trump Organization.
 Trump-branded property could also present a
target for bombings or other kinds of attacks
 Trump was a relentless critic of China's trade policies
during the campaign. But he's had his eye on China's fast-
growing property market since February 2008, when
he signed a memorandum of understanding with the
Evergrande Real Estate Group to develop an office tower in
t Guangzhou, worth more than $700 million at the time.
The partnership fell apart .
 In 2012, the Trump Hotel Collection (THC) opened an office
in Shanghai with 10 employees, the company's first branch
office in Asia. The company hired Jie "Robby" Qiu as its
chief country executive. In 2013, Qiu helped THC sign a
memorandum of understanding with the State Grid
Corporation of China, which provides electricity to 1.1
billion people in China and is listed by Forbes as the
world's second largest company by revenue.
 Plans to build 20 to 30 Trump and Scion Hotels in major
Chinese cities.
 Trump's pullout of TPP opens way for China
 Signed in Feb 2016 in New zealand
 TOKYO/SYDNEY An Asia-Pacific trade deal
stands almost no chance of working now that
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has pulled
the plug on it, proponents of the pact said on
Tuesday, opening the way for China to assume
the leadership mantle on trade.
 on the campaign trail, Trump also spoke
critically of the Saudi government and recently
called for a ban on oil imports from the
kingdom.
 Defeat the ideology of radical Islamic terrorism
just as we won the Cold War.
 ISIS
 Strong supporter of Israel
 Not on priority list
 Already tilt towards India
 India. Business, economic ties Trump has
licensed his brand to Trump Tower Mumbai, a
luxury condo project
 “Indians should be happy that they have a friend in
white house”.
 Pakistan- May be ignored
 Pressure to do more
 Nuclear weapons

 Afghanistan- India as favorite

 Role of Romney as Secretary of State
 …..Brexit, Trump…. Domino effect
 The politics on the basis of nationalism,
nativism, racism- Far Right

 Modi
 Islamic fundamentalism
 East- West clash
 Blow to Globalization/ Neoliberalism
 End of Liberalism & liberal values? All human
beings deserve respect, multiculturism
 End of Francis Fukuyuma’s history thesis
…..the liberal democracies is the future of the
world
 Era of Realism

 Now drastic reorientation of the global order
 Failures of international institutions to uphold
values of liberty & human security
 Rise of unhindered realism, new alliances & the
decadence of liberal internationalism
 The age of Disruptive politics- Radically
reconfiguring, creating crisis. Innovation by
politician to take uncertain risks.
Politicians need to stay in
front of their message. On-
experimenting with new technologies and
demand political news
strategies. By taking more calculated
channels risks in the
would allow
politician unprecedented
politics access to voter’s living
 Trump will be unpredictable rooms. Platforms such as
xBox Live, which currently
has 48 million members, and
Google’s Chromecast would
 Era of Global uncertainty be great places to start.
 what job is Donald Trump really trying to get
done? Maybe Donald, being as smart as he is,
knows full well the job is not to become President
but rather to create a crisis for the political status
quo.
 While the benefits to Donald of running are self-
evident—enormous, invaluable promotion of the
Trump brand along with basking in the limelight
of hyper-celebritydom—what if the real job is
simply to highlight the absurdity of the existing
system?
 …. finally illuminate for Americans the highly
dysfunctional, polarized political system that is
simply collapsing, like a black hole, under its
 DONALD J. TRUMP’S VISION

 Peace through strength will be at the center of our foreign

policy. We will achieve a stable, peaceful world with less
conflict and more common ground.
 Advance America’s core national interests, promote
regional stability, and produce an easing of tensions in the
world. Work with Congress to fully repeal the defense
sequester and submit a new budget to rebuild our depleted
military.
 Rebuild our military, enhance and improve intelligence and
cyber capabilities.
 End the current strategy of nation-building and regime
change.
 Ensure our security procedures and refugee policy takes
into account the security of the American people.
 Read Donald J. Trump’s Plan to Make America Safe and
Respected Again.
 Work with our Arab allies and friends in the Middle East
in the fight against ISIS.
 Pursue aggressive joint and coalition military operations
to crush and destroy ISIS, international cooperation to
cutoff their funding, expand intelligence sharing, and
cyberwarfare to disrupt and disable their propaganda
and recruiting.
 Defeat the ideology of radical Islamic terrorism just as we
won the Cold War.
 Establish new screening procedures and enforce our
immigration laws to keep terrorists out of the United
States.
 Suspend, on a temporary basis, immigration from some
of the most dangerous and volatile regions of the world
that have a history of exporting terrorism.
 Establish a Commission on Radical Islam to
identify and explain to the American public the
core convictions and beliefs of Radical Islam, to
identify the warning signs of radicalization,
and to expose the networks in our society that
support radicalization.
 KEY ISSUES
 ISIS is responsible for the deaths of more than 1,000
people outside of Iraq and Syria. [The New York
Times, July 16, 2016]
 In 2014, ISIS was operating in some seven nations.
Today they are fully operational in 18 countries with
aspiring branches in six more regions, for a total of 24
branches. [NBC News, Aug. 8, 2016]
 Iran, the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism, is
now flush with $150 billion in cash released by the
United States – plus another $400 million in ransom.
[The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 3, 2016]
 CONTRAST WITH HILLARY CLINTON
 Before the Obama-Clinton Administration took over:
Libya was stable, Syria was under control, Egypt was
ruled by a secular president and an ally of the United
States, Iraq was experiencing a reduction in violence, the
group that would become what we now call ISIS was
close to being extinguished, and Iran was being choked
off by economic sanctions.
 Fast-forward to today: Libya is in ruins, our ambassador and three
other brave Americans are dead, ISIS has gained a new base of
operations, Syria is in the midst of a disastrous civil war, ISIS
controls large portions of territory, a refugee crisis now threatens
Europe and the United States, terrorists have gained a foothold in
the Sinai desert, Iraq is in chaos, and ISIS is on the loose. ISIS has
spread across the Middle East, and into the West.
 The Obama-Clinton election-driven timetable for
withdrawal from Iraq led directly to the rise of ISIS.
[Donald J. Trump Press Release, July 28, 2016]
 Secretary Hillary Clinton’s forceful advocacy for the
intervention in Libya to build a Democracy is regarded as
President Obama’s worst mistake. In addition, under
Secretary Clinton, regime change in Syria and the
overthrowing of Mubarak in Egypt destabilized the
world. [Donald J. Trump Press Release, July 28, 2016]
 Hillary Clinton’s State Department admitted five
refugees and one translator who were later charged with
terrorism and related crimes. [Donald J. Trump Press
Release, Aug. 15, 2016]
 Trump is neither conservative nor
neoconservative. Nor is he reliably realist,
idealist, or neo-isolationist. His tightly drawn
circle of loyal aides and adult children reflect
only the light of the “army of one” at their center.
As America’s first commander-in-chief in waiting
never to have served in government or the
military, Trump lacks the kind of biographical
paper trail that might bring into sharper focus his
vague convictions. But it’s not quite that simple.
 Trump believes in a strong military, but is
dismissive of past military entanglements. He is
pro-Israel, supports Britain’s decision to quit the
European Union, and is unusually simpatico with
Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. “But none of
that amounts to a coherent worldview, which is
one of the problems you have in judging a leader
who does not read, and feels no need to
fundamentally educate himself on the
international system that the United States has
created over more than half a century,” Cohen
said.
 There are also clues in the rapidly expanding
circle of advisers and top officials he is now
recruiting and appointing, including;
 retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn as
national security adviser;
 Kansas Representative Mike Pompeo as CIA
director;
 Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions as attorney
general;
 Secretary of State include Tennessee Senator Bob
Corker, known for reaching across the political
aisle;
 Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. ambassador to
Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations.
 The choice of staunch partisans like Rudy Giuliani,
 or a hard-right skeptic of multilateralism like
former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John
Bolton
 Republican National Committee chairman
Reince Priebus as White House chief of staff;
 and right-wing media mogul and anti-globalist
bomb-thrower Steve Bannon as White House
chief strategist and senior counselor.
 The evidence thus far suggests that Trump is a
pragmatist who possesses a mercantilist instinct
and boundless confidence in his ability to
negotiate trade deals that put “America First.”
He is likely to be more aggressive in targeting
Islamist terrorist groups such as the Islamic State,
and staunching the flow of illegal immigrants.
Trump also seems determined to
continue stoking the fires of nationalism and
aggrieved populism that swept him into office.
 His approach to allies and adversaries alike
will almost certainly be transactional and non-
judgmental of authoritarian regimes. Above all,
the picture that emerges is of a commander-in-
chief untethered from the orthodoxies of the
post-World War II, U.S.-constructed liberal
international order, suggesting the potential for
one of the most disruptive presidencies in
modern history.
 Of course, even if theories of Trump-as-
pragmatist hold up, the hard-right nationalists
that helped deliver him to power are anything
but. In searching for a historical antecedent to the
Trump phenomenon, political scientist and
historian Walter Russell Mead, professor of
foreign affairs and humanities at Bard College,
harkened all the way back to the fiery
nationalism and populism of Andrew Jackson.
 reflexively support Israel,
 demand an overwhelming response to terror
attacks,
 agitate for tight immigration controls,
 resist diplomacy with Iran and North Korea,
 want the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay
to remain open,
 maintain a cynical stance towards the United
Nations,
 doubt climate change science,
 and believe in torture’s effectiveness.
 That sounds an awful lot like an amalgam of
Trump foreign policy pronouncements. “Donald
Trump, for now, is serving as a kind of blank
screen on which Jacksonians project their hopes,”
Mead wrote. “Combining a suspicion of Wall
Street, a hatred of the cultural left, a love of
middle class entitlement programs, and a fear of
free trade, Jacksonian America has problems
with both Republican and Democratic agendas.”
 Rock the World
 In recasting the Republican agenda by merging hard-
nosed mercantilism with Jacksonian ideals, Trump’s
election has sent much of the world reeling. That was
the subtext to President Barack Obama’s trip to Europe
this week: to assure rattled NATO allies that his
successor remains committed to the trans-Atlantic
alliance. It explains why German Chancellor Angela
Merkel sent Trump a pointed note of congratulations
on his victory that made future cooperation contingent
on his adherence to common values, such as
democracy and human rights, heretofore taken for
granted.
 The shockwaves were felt as far away as Japan.
They help explain Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe’s decision to drop everything and
fly to New York to meet with Trump on
Thursday afternoon in order to “build trust” in
a relationship that Abe calls “the cornerstone of
Japan’s diplomacy and security.”
 authoritarian and nationalist leaders who frequently
suffer the lash of U.S. criticism under current
international norms have applauded Trump’s victory.
That list includes Putin, Egyptian military coup leader
and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Turkey’s
increasingly authoritarian President Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan. The Trump campaign’s plan to move the U.S.
embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and its new policy
statement that West Bank settlements are no longer seen
as an obstacle to peace, has already prompted right-wing
members of the Israeli government to declare the death of
the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a
U.S. policy embraced by Republican and Democratic
presidents going back four decades. “The era of the
Palestinian state is over,” crowed right-wing Israeli
education minister Naftali Bennett, leader of the pro-
settlement Jewish Home party.
 Guessing who will fill top administration jobs is
a venerable Washington parlor game. These
picks matter. George W. Bush’s transition team,
for instance, stocked his national security
apparatus with prominent neoconservatives who
championed an assertive U.S. foreign policy
promoting democracy and confrontation with
America’s adversaries. After the attacks on 9/11,
those neoconservatives and their allies forcefully
and successfully advocated for the invasion of
Iraq.
 Trump’s personnel choices figure to be especially
revealing, given his thin resume, either signaling
a more incremental approach, or else a radical
departure from past U.S. foreign and national
security policy
 In Trump’s first major personnel announcement,
concerning both Priebus and Bannon, the president-elect
highlighted the essential duality between pragmatists
and populist ideologues. Subsequent choices will provide
clues to whether the pragmatists or ideological populists
are ascendant. Establishment favorites being floated for
Secretary of State include Tennessee Senator Bob Corker,
known for reaching across the political aisle; Zalmay
Khalilzad, the former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan,
Iraq, and the United Nations, and the highest-ranking
Muslim American in the administration of George W.
Bush; and even former Republican presidential
contender Mitt Romney. The choice of staunch partisans
like Rudy Giuliani, or a hard-right skeptic of
multilateralism like former U.S. ambassador to the
United Nations John Bolton, would be interpreted as a
turn away from traditional diplomacy.
 Trump’s choice of retired Lieutenant General
Mike Flynn, the former head of the Defense
Intelligence Agency and his chief national
adviser during the long campaign, to serve as his
national security adviser is also telling. As DIA
chief from 2012 to 2014, Flynn pushed back
against the White House narrative that al-
Qaeda’s “core” was “decimated,” and that ISIS
was the “junior varsity” team of terrorism.
 For years, Flynn had served as the chief
intelligence officer for Joint Special Operations
Command as it hunted Islamist terrorists and
insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan. “We killed
and captured a lot of al-Qaeda leaders, but they
were always replaced by other true believers. …
The claim that this enemy was on the run was a
lie.”
 Flynn also backs Trump’s call for a “reset” with
Russia. Among the president-elect’s many
controversial foreign policy positions, none has
shaken traditional U.S. allies more than his
enduring affinity for Putin. When asked if, as
president, he would come to the aid of NATO
allies attacked by Russia, he waffled.
 NATO allies are especially worried that in recalibrating
relations, Trump might bargain away Western sanctions
on Moscow for its annexation of Crimea and support for
separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. They also worry that
he will not back NATO pledges to deploy more troops to
eastern European member states frightened by Putin’s
aggression next door. This week, Trump took a
congratulatory phone call from Putin, and the two
leaders spoke of developing a “strong and enduring”
relationship. It now seems clear that part of Trump’s
“secret plan” to defeat ISIS has been to align with Russia
in combating the group, which could upend current U.S.
policy supporting Syrian rebels against the regime of
Russian ally Bashar al-Assad.
 Trump is smart and savvy, and he realizes that
Russia also has a problem with radical Islamist
terrorism, and if we can work together on that
threat maybe we can leverage that cooperation to
address other issues. So this outreach is all about
creating options in his dealings with Russia, just
as he wants to create more options in dealing
with China. That’s where Trump’s real strength
lies—he’s a master negotiator, and that requires
having options.”
 “You know, the U.S. presidency is unlike any
other job on earth, and only God knows what
it’ll do to Donald Trump,” Cohen said. “Or him
to it.”
 Gen Mattis is known for implementing
the COIN strategy.
 "Mad Dog Mattis


Persian Gulf War


Invasion of Afghanistan

Iraq War

• Invasion of Iraq

• First Battle of Fallujah

• Second Battle of Fallujah
