TRAFFIC

ENGINEERING
Prioritizing Long Term Multimodal
Transportation Policies
 GOAL
Develop and
demonstrate
methodology for the
use of scenario
based policy making
and planning by the
Multimodal Office

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 OBJECTIVES
▪ Review scenario based planning
▪ Identify and classify scenarios
▪ Identify policies specific to time horizons, regions,
and modes
▪ Develop methods to compare policies used with
scenarios (cost effectiveness, ROI, etc.)
▪ Provide examples of all the above
▪ Make recommendations for the long range plan

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 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

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 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

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 REGIONS

▪ Three regions are more manageable

Source: http://www.tfhrc.gov/pubrds/06sep/images/dep2.gif
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 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

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 TIME HORIZONS
▪ 20 years  20 years
▪ 10 years  10 years
▪ 5 years  5 years

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 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

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 TYPES OF SCENARIOS
▪ Spatial
▪ Economical
▪ Demographical
▪ Number of households, in/out-migration
▪ Other
▪ Environmental
▪ Availability of energy resources
▪ National emergencies
▪ Natural disasters

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 SPATIAL SCENARIOS
▪ Urban core repopulates
▪ People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchang
▪ Public transportation increases, clean transportation

▪ Sprawl accelerates
▪ Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increas
▪ Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion

▪ Information technology amenities grow

▪ More workers telecommute so sprawl continues
▪ Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas

▪ Region undivided
▪ Shift job and household growth from west to east

▪ Transit oriented development

▪ More people live and work closer to transit
Sources:
www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
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www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
 ECONOMICAL SCENARIOS
▪ Regional economy strengthens
▪ Many workers move to region, sprawl continues
▪ Global trade intensifies
▪ Population decreases, increased use of
automobiles
▪ Energy cost rises
▪ People relocate to more transit-oriented
locations
▪ Decreased use of automobile, air quality
increases
▪ Infrastructure investment expands
Sources:
▪ May draw people to area in the long run
www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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 DEMOGRAPHICAL SCENARIOS
▪ In-migration increases
▪ Total population increases, increased use of auto
▪ Out-migration increases
▪ Population decreases, increased use of auto
▪ More households
▪ Increased household growth to balance forecast
job growth

Sources:
www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf

www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-
documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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 OTHER SCENARIOS
▪ “Green” region emphasized
▪ Use of public transit, bike, etc.
▪ Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland
security tightened
▪ Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation
▪ Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not
emphasized
▪ Carbon constrained future
▪ Energy constrained future
Sources:
www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
▪ Global price shocks and shortages
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

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 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

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 SUGGESTED POLICIES
▪ Set of policies presented by Vtrans2025
▪ Presented in phase 3 final report to General
Assembly
▪ Focuses on four policy areas
▪ Funding/Investment
▪ Land use
▪ Connectivity
▪ Priority Setting

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 FUNDING/INVESTMENT
▪ Invest More in Transportation
▪ User fees and taxes must be increased, new sources of
funding, such as indexing fuel taxes to inflation, and
greater use of tolling and General Funds must be
considered in order to address investment needs and
increase system capacity.

▪ Support Transit
▪ Remove Bias
▪ The state should not bias the local choice of transit
versus roadways by the way in which it funds the modes

▪ Fund Rail
▪ Protect Transportation Trust Fund Revenues

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 LAND USE
▪ Strengthen Planning Including Modeling Land Use
Impacts
▪ Strengthen local and regional planning and
enhance the role of the state as a reliable and
active partner in those planning efforts.
▪ Manage Access
▪ Implement access management policies that
ensure greater compatibility of land use and
transportation priorities
▪ Consider State Versus Local Roles
▪ Address the Transportation/Land Use Conflict

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 CONNECTIVITY
▪ Improve Connections
▪ Think Multimodal
▪ Transit, pedestrian, bike and rail-friendly design
features included in new construction
▪ Take the Lead
▪ Virginia must lead in connectivity of interstate
corridors
▪ Invest in Technology
▪ Maximize the efficiency of the existing
transportation system through developing
technology

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 PRIORITY SETTING
▪ Use Objective Criteria
▪ Establish objective criteria for all modes in order to
measure success of projects and predict success of
investments
▪ Plan Multimodal
▪ Continue development of the Multimodal
Investment Network (MIN) approach as a
framework for planning and prioritizing multimodal
projects at the state level

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 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

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 EVALUATION TOOLS FOR POLICIES
▪ Return on Investment
▪ Cost-benefit analysis
▪ Risk Analysis
▪ Impact Analysis
▪ Sensitivity Analysis
▪ Systems Analysis and Integration

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 QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION

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