Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Climate Variability
& Climate Change
EESC W4400x
Fall 2006
• Forecast interpretation:
Identify influencing factors and uncertainties
for climate predictions on time scales, from
seasonal-to-interannual forecasts to climate
change projections.
Sept. 5, 2006 EESC W4400x 3
OUTLINE
• “Climate”
• Models
Remove mean
• Empirical/statistical
Describe relationship between observed parameters
(e.g. sea surface temperature and rainfall)
• Numerical/dynamical
Based on set of mathematical equations describing
physical processes, that allow the system to evolve in
time
• Physical/dynamical equations
- 3-D equations of motion (conservation of momentum)
- Continuity equation (conservation of mass)
- Thermodynamic equation (conservation of energy)
- Equation of state for air
- Balance equation for water vapor
• Parameterizations
Small-scale processes that are treated statistically and their
effects related to average conditions over much longer periods of
time and larger space scales
e.g. clouds, radiative transfer, turbulence
Temperature as Function of
Daisy Coverage
T = Tmax – αD (2)
(2)
D 0 : T To
2(T To )
T 0 : T To
T
0
To D
x x
Tmax
Surface Snow/Ice
temperature coverage