Use of risk information for Disaster

Risk Management

Cees van Westen

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION

Hyogo Framework for Action
Priorities for action 2005 - 2015:
1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with
a strong institutional basis for implementation
2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning
3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety
and resilience at all levels
4. Reduce the underlying risk factors
5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels
For more information:
http://www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa/hfa.htm

ISL 2004
Disaster Risk Management
 Disaster Risk Management
Pre-disaster activities Post-disaster activities
Risk Emergency Rehabilitation-
Mitigation Risk transfer Preparedness
identification response reconstruction
Insurance,
Hazard Warning
Structural and reinsurance of Rehabilitation,
assessment systems,
non-structural public Humanitarian reconstruction of
(frequency, communication
works and infrastructure assistance damaged critical
magnitude, systems,
actions and private infrastructure
location) protocols
assets
Financial
market Macroeconomic and
Clean-up,
Vulnerability instruments Contingency budget
Land-use temporary
assessment (catastrophe planning (utility management
planning and repairs and
(population and bonds, companies, (stabilization,
building codes restoration of
assets exposed) weather- public services) protection of social
services
indexed hedge expenditures)
funds)
Public services Damage
Risk assessment Financial with safety Networks of assessment Revitalization of
(function of incentives for regulations emergency and affected sectors
hazards and preventive (e.g. energy, responders identification (e.g. exports,
vulnerability) behavior water, (local, national) of priorities tourism, agriculture)
transportation) for recovery
Hazard Mobilization of
Education,
monitoring and recovery Incorporation of risk
training and Financial
forecasting Shelter facilities, resources management in
awareness about protection
(space-time evacuation plans (public- reconstruction
risks and strategies
modeling, multilateral, processes
prevention
scenario building) insurance)
 Risk Governance Framework

 The aim of Risk

governance is to
involve the
various
stakeholders
within all aspects
of risk
management.
 Risk
communication is
central.

The International Risk Governance Council Risk Governance Framework

( Source: IRGC, 2006)
Stakeholders
Aspects in stakeholder involvement
Aspect Question
Are stakeholders identified (through a proper process - including
Identification
prioritisation)?
Representation Are all relevant social groups represented?
Engagement Are all relevant social groups motivated to engagement?
Access to Share of stakeholders that regularly take part in information
Information meetings
Are the stakeholders interested in having information, in the
Interest
outcome?
Do the stakeholders trust the decision makers, institutions and
Trust
information available?
Acceptance -
Do the stakeholders accept the process?
Process
Acceptance -
Do the stakeholders accept the outcome?
Outcome
Are stakeholders engaged in dialogue with listening and mutual
Dialogue
understanding?
Do the financial resources available meet the needs of the
Financial
governance process defined?
Do the personnel resources available in expertise and capacity
Personnel
meet the needs of the governance process defined?
Time Is there calendar time to meet the governance process defined?
Stakeholders
 A stakeholder is any individual or group:
 with an interest in the success or failure of an organization/ project/ endeavor in
delivering intended results.
 affected by the outcome of the project.
 might be called on to provide input, feedback, or authorization for the use case.
 Beneficiary: a stakeholder with an interest in the positive outcome of
the project without actively participating
 Risk information consumers (RC): refers to governmental and non-
governmental institutions (national, regional, local) as well as to
communities and individuals, who may require “information on risk” as
an input to carry out their specific tasks.
 Risk information providers (RP): governmental and non-governmental
institutions (national, regional, local), who are requested to provide the
required data inputs to carry through the decision making process
concerning risk assessment (the technical aspects); this includes
providers of basic data as well as providers of information on risk.
 Who is what?
Stakeholder Role Explanation
Local RC Local communities are supposed to be direct beneficiaries of risk management policies.
Communities They could be regarded as “information consumers” when they make use of participatory mechanisms
to take part in the decision making process, and therefore would require to be informed about the
topics under discussion (defining insurance policies, land use management plans, etc.)
Communities can also take part in the risk assessment process as “information providers”, especially
when considering issues related to vulnerability assessment (risk perception, etc.)

Local authorities RC Local authorities are mostly using risk information for local decision making. They normally do not
have the capacity to generate risk information on their own.
Governmental RC Ministries use risk information in their planning processes, they main role is as “information
organizations - RP consumers”. However, in many cases, the different sectors make use of their own technical resources
sectors to produce risk assessment studies; in this case they are also “providers” of information.
National basic RP For instance national bureau of statistics, topographic surveys. Though they produce “general
data producers purpose” information, they are relevant for the risk assessment process.
National thematic RP For instance: meteorological, seismological, geological that, generally, should be considered and
organizations “information producers”
Disaster RP A disaster management organization is both generating risk information, and is also using this
management RC information for early warning, preparedness planning and disaster prevention.
organization
Private sector RP Consultants can be important source for specific data for hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment. A
RC special case is also the insurance industry, which can be a RP as RC at the same time. Sometimes the
entire process of hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment is done entirely by a consulting company.
The private sector as a whole is also RC as beneficiary of disaster risk reduction
NGO RC NGO’s often are actively involved in collecting relevant hazard and vulnerability data at community
RP level.
They can also be RC
Universities RP Universities can be active in generating hazard and risk information. They can sometimes have the
main role in this process
International RP International organization can bring in additional support for generating hazard and risk information
organizations RC (e.g. World Bank)
They also require risk information for making sound investments.
 Risk communication
Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information about risks
among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general
public.

 who (Source) Environmental Social context Information Information Message Receiver

cues sources channels content characteristics
 says what
(Message)
 via what Risk identification: “Is there a
Predecisional

medium real threat I need to pay

attention to?”
processes

(Channel)
Risk assessment: “Do I need to Information needs assessment:
 to whom take protective action?” “What information do I need?”

(Receiver)
 and directed at Protective action search: “What
can be done to achieve
Communication action
assessment: “Where and how can
what kind of protection?” I obtain this information?”

change (Effect). Protective action assessment:

Communication action
“What is the best method of
protection?” implementation: “Do I need the
information now?”

Protective action implementation:

“Does protection action need to
be taken now?”
Risk communication: Netherlands
Information and communication
Risk visualization
 Statistical information per administrative unit (country, province,
municipality, or neighborhood)
 Risk curves
 Maps which shows the spatial variation of risk over an area
 WebGIS applications that allow the user to combine different types of
information, and display information such as:
 Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouses, where through internet
basic GIS data can be shared among different technical and scientific
organizations involved in hazard and risk assessment.
 Animations showing the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and
risk
 What to visualize for whom?
Stakeholder Purpose Type of risk visualization
General public General information on risks over large Basic WebGIS applications in which they can overlay the
areas location of major hazard types with high resolution
imagery or topographic maps.
Awareness raising Animations (what if scenarios)
Community-based DRR projects Simple maps of the neighborhood with risk class,
buildings and other features
Businesses Investment policies, and location planning General information about hazards and risks in both
graphical and map format.
Technical staff of Land use regulation / zoning Map with simple legend in three classes: construction
(local) authorities restricted, construction allowed, further investigation
required.
Building codes Maps indicating the types of building allowed (building
type, number of floors)
Spatial planning Hazard maps, with simple legends related to probabilities
and possible consequences
Environmental Impact Assessment Maps and possible loss figures for future scenarios
Disaster preparedness Real time simple and concise Web-based information in
both map and graphical forms
Decision makers / Decision making on risk reduction measures Statistical information, loss exceedance curves, F-N
local authorities curves, maps.
Investments Economic losses, projected economic losses for future
scenarios.
Strategic Environmental Assessment General statistical information for administrative units.
NGO’s Influence political decisions in favor of This can vary from simple maps to Web-based
environment and sustainable development applications, depending on the objectives of the NGO
Scientists / technical Hazard information exchange to public and WebGIS applications where they can access the basic
staff of hazard data other agencies information
producers Exchange of basic information for hazard Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouse for
and risk assessment exchanging information
Insurance industry Development of insurance policy Loss Exceedance Curves of economic losses, F-N curves

Media Risk communication to public, Animations of hazard phenomena that clearly illustrate
the problems.
 Risk visualization: example 1.
http://www.grid.unep.ch/activities/earlywarning/preview/index.php
Risk visualisation: example 2

http:// www.risicokaart.nl
 Web-GIS: RiskCity

http://geoserver.itc.nl:8181/cartoweb3/WebRiskCity/WebRiskCity.html
Risk Atlases: example
Java,Indonesia
 Risk atlas: example Andean countries

http://www.comunidadandina.org/predecan/atlasweb/index.html

Earthquake Volcanoes Landslides Debrisflow Flooding Cold Drought Tsunami

Population
Roads
Electrical
energy system

Oil
infrastructure
Harbours
Airports

Agriculture
 Tools for risk reduction measures

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION

Risk reduction
R = f (H, V, C)
R = Risk
H = Hazard
V = Vulnerability
C = Coping capacity

Risk can be reduced by:

 Reducing the hazard
 Reducing the vulnerability of
the elements at risk
 Reducing the amount of the
elements at risk
 Increasing the coping capacity
Risk reduction strategies

 Structural measures:
refer to any physical construction to reduce or avoid
possible impacts of hazards, which include engineering
measures and construction of hazard-resistant and
protective structures and infrastructure
 Non-Structural measures:
refer to policies, awareness, knowledge development,
public commitment, and methods and operating practices,
including participatory mechanisms and the provision of
information, which can reduce risk and related impacts.
Risk reduction strategies

 Avoidance (eliminate) i.e. modify the hazard

 Reduction ( mitigate) i.e. modify the
susceptibility of hazard damage and disruption.
 Transference (outsource or insure) i.e. modify
the impact of hazards on individuals and the
community.
 Retention ( accept and budget)
Risk reducing measures
Structural measures
Any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible
impacts of hazards
 engineering measures
 construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures
and infrastructure
 retrofitting
Building design to withstand hazards in
Mountain areas

 Foundation
 Base plate foundation
 Basement
 Waterproof concrete
 Enhancement openings and sealing
 Backflow flaps
 First & second floor
 Reinforcement of supporting walls
 Roof
 Reinforcement of roof
 Building openings
 Decrease amount and area of windows
in hazard direction
 Avalanche shutters
 Temporary preventive measures (to
close openings)

Fuchs et al., 2011

Building design to withstand hazards in
Mountain areas
Measure Increase in construction costs
Reinforcement of the hillside outer wall 17
Reinforcement of the structural slab 30
Reinforcement of the truss 10
Reduction of eaves (decrease in roof area) -16
Avalanche-proof window and window shutters 67
Above flood-level light shafts +23 23
Total costs of the prototype reinforced building 8

Fuchs et al., 2011

Risk reducing measures
- structural

Dunes

Dikes
and
polders

Dams and barriers

Example: the Netherlands
 To avoide future flood
losses a secondary
channel & island are
planned.
 Restrictive development
and some removal of
existing buildings
 (Preparedness measures)

 Early Warning
 Preparedness and contingency planning
 Emergency management (e.g. shelter
facilities, evacuation plans)
 Example: MARSOP3
 Crop Yield Forecasting
 Joint Research Centre (JRC)
of the EC, Alterra, VITO,
Meteoconsult.
 This system includes:m
 management of a
meteorological database,
 an agro-meteorological model
and database,
 low resolution satellite
information,
 statistical analyses of data
 crop yield forecasting
 publishing of bulletins
containing analysis,
forecasts and thematic maps
on crop yield expectations
using a Web-GIS application
USGS PAGER
 After the magnitude and hypocenter of an earthquake are
determined, PAGER retrieves any intensities reported by people in
the epicenteral region via the online USGS "Did You Feel It?"
system. The colored circles show the reported intensity at a city
and the circle's size is proportional to population.
 PAGER generates a soil/rock site-specific ground-motion
amplification map based on topographic slope. This map accounts
for the tendency of soft-soil sites to experience stronger ground
motion amplification than rock sites.
 Information about the fault geometry and size (black rectangle) is
added when it becomes available. The ShakeMap system then
produces regional ground shaking estimates (yellow contours) using
the reported intensities, the site-specific ground-motion
amplification map, and seismic wave attenuation equations that
account for the variation of seismic shaking intensity with
magnitude, distance and depth.
 The ShakeMap system then converts the estimated ground motions
to a map of seismic intensity.
 The population affected at each intensity level is computed and
intensities and populations at nearby cities tabulated by combining
the map of intensity with the Landscan population database.
CATS: Consequences Assessment Tool
Set (http://cats.saic.com/
 Effects Assessment (Number of Persons,
 US tool (FEMA & U.S. by Category)
Department of Defense's  Mortality from Radiation Exposure

Defense Threat Reduction  Mortality and Incapacitation from Biological Agent

Agency )
 Technological Hazard/Effects
Models
 High Explosive (Blast damage model )
 Toxic Industrial Materials/Hazmat
 Biological and Chemical Agent Release
 Nuclear and radiological Hazards
Exposure
 Mortality, Incapacitation, Visual Impairment &
Threshold Symptoms from Chemical Agent Exposure
 At-Risk Assessment (Number of Items, by
Category, Exposed in a Specified Range)
 Population, Infrastructure, Residential Structures
 Resource Sustainability Analysis
 Commodity and Medical Resource Locations
 Emergency Response Resource Locations
 Roadblocks

 NOAA Oil Spill Model

 Mass Destruction Hazard/Effects
Models
 Nuclear, Biological and Chemical
 Natural Hazard/Effects Models
 Earthquake
 Hurricane
 Storm Surge
Simulation exercise
 use the risk information that you have generated in the previous
exercise for emergency preparedness & response
 make a simulation of an emergency that might take place in
RiskCity
 You are in the geo-information department of the local authority
and you have to provide the local authority with the required
information to respond to the emergency.
 You will get:
 Information from organisations that provide important information
 Requests from RCEMR to provide answers to questions which you need to
solve using GIS
Simulation exercise

 The best is to work in groups of 2 people.

 Use 2 computers – one for analysis, one for
communication (keep your University e-mail open!)
 All answers to information request will be mailed
to westen@itc.nl
 Grading will be based on the accuracy of the
information you provide to RCEMR, and how
quickly you send it
 Total of 160 points – aim at generating your
responses within about 20 minutes!
 We start at 12.00 o’clock.
 First make sure to download the data for this
exercise and check it until you start to receive
messages.