ONSHORE PROBABILITY MODEL

OF
PRRPL (SERPL)
(SAMBALPUR-SARAIPALLI SECTION)
 ONSHORE RISK MODEL OVERVIEW
1. Time Dependent Threats
1. External Corrosion
2. Internal Metal Loss
3. Fatigue
4. Environmentally Assisted Cracking

2. Time Independent Threats

1. 3rd Party
2. Incorrect Operations
3. Outside Force and Local Condition
4. Vandalism / Terrorism
5. Pilferage

3. Stable Threats
1. Manufacturing / Welding / Fabrication Related Defects
 Risk Score Calculation
• Score refers to the individual segment performance with regard to the
considered factor.

• Weight refers to importance of factor with regard to other factors in the

model.

Score = (Individual Threat Score 1 * Threat’s Weight 1) +

(Individual Threat Score 2 * Threat’s Weight 2) +
...and so on.
Weightage of Threats
 Time Dependent Threats
1. External Corrosion
2. Internal Metal Loss
3. Fatigue
4. Environmentally Assisted Cracking
Summary of time dependent threats of all pipelines
Score of time dependent threats – SBP-SAR
Internal Metal Loss– SBP-SAR
 Internal metal loss: Threat mitigation – SBP-SAR

1. Low wall thickness 6.35 mm for 16” dia. pipe gives a score of 7.
 Can’t be mitigated.

2. Internal corrosion issues were reported in ILI survey carried out in

2018.
 Risk shall be mitigated at site after carrying out rectification work in
2019.
Fatigue– SBP-SAR
 Fatigue: Threat mitigation – SBP-SAR

1. Welded repairs: Data has not been uploaded in the model. Default
values have been selected leading to high score.

 Shall be mitigated upon data updation in the model.

2. Fatigue/Defective seam susceptibility: Data to be updated in the

model. Default values have been selected leading to high score.

 Shall be mitigated upon data updation in the model.

 Time Independent Threats
o 3rd Party
o Incorrect Operations
o Outside Force and Local Condition
o Vandalism / Terrorism
o Pilferage
Summary of time independent threats of all pipelines
Score of time independent threats-SBP-SAR
 Time independent threat mitigation – SBP-SAR

1. 3rd Party activities: Low wall thickness (6.35 mm). Land use data
to be updated.

Can be mitigated upon supply of missing data.

2. Incorrect Operations: Audit data updation pending in the model

for Sambalpur-Saraipalli.

Can be mitigated upon supply of missing data.

 Time independent threat mitigation – SBP-SAR

3. Outside force & local conditions: Wall thickness low (6.35mm), no.
of lightning strikes.
Parameters not under control. Can’t be mitigated.

4. Pilferages: 13 pilferages reported for 2018-19 for PRRPL, mostly in

Jharsuguda-Khunti. Security Deptt. has taken up the issue. Additional
security chief deployed in Jharkhand(Khunti). Night patrolling being
taken up for pilferage prone sections.
 Should reduce by these surveillance measures.
 Stable Threats
o Manufacturing / Welding / Fabrication Related Defects
Summary of Stable threats of all pipelines
Stable threats of PRRPL-SBP-SAR
 Stable threat mitigation – SBP-SAR

No critical issues reported for stable threats in Sambalpur-Saraipalli

section.