Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
www.ces.ncsu.edu/.../resistance%20bioassay2.jpg www.ars.usda.gov/.../photos/nov00/k9122-1i.jpg
1. Hypothesis testing
2. Assess potential ecological and
biosafety risks (must be
environmentally benign)
3. Determine performance under
real agronomic conditions
(economic benefits)
Case of the Monarch Butterfly
20 May 1999
Diamondback Moth
Plutella xylostella Cabbage Moth
Pieris rapae
www.agf.gov.bc.ca/.../images/diamondback3.jpg www.butterfliesandmoths.org/pic/Pieris_rapae.jpg
Bt and Monarch Risk Model
cls.casa.colostate.edu/.../images/larva.jpg
http://www.geo-pie.cornell.edu/issues/monarchs.html www.smartcenter.org/ovpm/babymonarch-09.jpg
Experimental Goals
* Note: this study did not specifically look at how Bt pollen effect
monarch larvae. Examined other lepidopteron larvae native to
Germany which are commonly found within corn fields
2 ha
Field West
4 ha
Farmer
ISO
178 m
INS Bt
7 7 7 162 m
INS Bt ISO
Bt INS ISO INS Bt
8 8 8
5 4 3 2 1 ca. 500 m
Bearbeitunsrichtung
5 4 3 2 1
237 m
248 m
Slide courtesy of D. Bartsch
Lepidopteron Larvae Exposure to
Bt cry1Ab
Broad spectrum
pesticides
or
non-target effects?
ERA: Case of Bt Corn and the Lovely Butterfly
Scientific Method: Observe, Create Hypothesis, Perform
Experiments, Collect Data, Report
1. Initial Evaluation (Bt Pollen Could Spread to Neighboring
Plants: Milkweed)
2. Problem Formulation (Bt Pollen Harms Non-Target Insects)
3. Tiered Risk Assessment (Lab Field)
4. Controlled Experiments and Gathering of Information
(Unbiased Report of Data)
5. Risk Evaluation (Create Regulations Based on Actual
Scientific Data)
Tritrophic Interactions: Non-target
Insect Model
Exposure Impact
Frequency Hazard
Consequence
• Intraspecific hybridization
• Interspecific hybridization
Discussion question
•What factors would be needed for the risk
assessment of a nonagronomic trait, such as a
pharmaceutical?
Triangle of U
Bt Brassica gene flow risk
assessment
• Is it needed?
• What kind of experiments?
• At what scale?
Ecological concerns
pollen
80
70
60
Percent Defoliation
50
40
30
20
10
0
I
I
58
45
I
P1
45 1
C
C
C
C
xP
xP
U
xU
xU
xU
xU
xU
xU
W
W
pa
pa
48
45
ra
63
48
52
96
4
ra
O
W
12
B.
W
O
O
B.
O
Line
Greenhouse Bt “superweed” experiment
Second-tier Risk = Pr(GM spread) x Pr(harm|GM spread)
Impact
Hazard
Consequence
S Soybean
C Brassica rapa
BT BC3 Bt transgenic Brassica rapa
Assess transgenic weediness potential by
assaying crop yield.
-herbivory +herbivory
TT CC
Wet biomass (g) Soybean biomass
CC CC CT CT TT TT
Field level hybridization
Third-tier Risk = Pr(GM spread) x Pr(harm|GM spread)
Exposure
Frequency
Field hybridization experiment
Field level backcrossing
Maternal Parent
F1 hybrid Transgenic/germinated Hybridization rate per
plant
Location 1 983/1950 50.4%
Location 2 939/2095 44.8%
F1 total 1922/4045 47.5%
Maternal Parent
B. rapa Transgenic/germinated Hybridization rate per
plant
Location 1 34/56,845 0.060%
Location 2 44/50,177 0.088%
B. rapa total 78/107,022 0.073%