Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Company: Demand
Forecasting
Group 4
2 key products are: Pressure Vacuum Breakers (PVB) and the Fire Valves
The sales experienced growth that surpassed the rate of the industry
Several factors affect the future demand of Wilkins products, one of which is commercial and
institutional construction activities.
Seasonality, new building initiations, the actual construction of homes and finally the product and price
promotions are all key factors that play a big part when it comes to future demand forecasting.
Planning Bill
5 important components of Planning bill are:
First, the planning bill contains the sales history for each product within the
family
Second, for the last four quarters, the planning bill calculates the average
number of units sold within that product family each day within each quarter
Third, the planning bill contains their projection on the average daily sales for
that family that they think we will sell in the next 12 months
Fourth, they disaggregate the family forecast into each product based on the per
cent of sales of the product family
Projection is held on the yearly sales for each product in a family
Critique of current forecasting
method
• Seasonal variations are not taken into consideration while they are
aware of it
• Although their forecasts are annually and quarterly, they derive weekly
and daily unit sales
• The quarterly forecasts are not based on any mathematical reasoning
but simply on judgment
• The forecasted sales are overestimated and would result in excessive
finished goods inventory
• It doesn’t take into account new products, because of the lack of
historical data
Decision Problem
Evaluate the current forecasting methods and try to find more reliable
methods for demand forecasting
Seasonality of PVB Seasonality of FV
Correlation between Actual sales and Unemployment rates, Bank Prime Loan and New housings
For PVB