1-International Conflict

resolution
Professor
Leszek Buszynski

6 January 2010

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 The aims of the course
To understand conflicts
Why they arise, their history and evolution
The complicated factors in their persistence
When are they ready for resolution
Why they cannot be easily resolved
To understand the stages and process of their resolution
UN or international intervention
Mediation and third party involvement
Ensuring that conflicts are resolved
Peacebuilding, truth, reconciliation and justice

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 International conflict resolution

First part of the course-theory and concepts

 External intervention
UN
International coalitions
A single state, a great or regional power
The responsibility to protect [R2P]
 Mediation theory
When conflicts can be ended by mediation
What is required?
Who can be a mediator?

Theory has to be included in your essay

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 International conflict resolution

Second part of the course

 Middle East, Israel and the Palestinians,
Israel and Hamas
The Obama Administration
Is a solution possible?
 South China Sea,
The role of China and ASEAN
A test case of dispute resolution

Student presentations and essays on these topics

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 Domestic conflict resolution

Third part of the course-the resolution of intra state conflicts

 by international intervention
Cambodia, a case study of a successfully resolved conflict, how UN peacebuilding works
Statebuilding
Bosnia and Kosovo
Timor Leste
Africa, Rwanda, Sudan/Dafur, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Congo, Somalia. What are Africa’s
problems?

 by mediation
Sri Lanka, Indian and Norwegian mediation in 2002
Aceh, Finnish mediation and Indonesia.

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 Why bother?
Realist view
Conflict is inherent in the human condition
There will always be conflict as long as there are people, not just
states
Conflicts must be resolved by a decisive victory, someone must
dominate to maintain peace [Edward Luttwak “give war a chance”]
Without a decisive victory conflict will continue to smoulder and
external resolution is impossible
The parties will continue to probe for that decisive victory and will
dissipate resources until then

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 Why resolve conflicts?
Diplomacy is increasingly about conflict resolution, foreign
ministries are involved in the effort to remove sources of instability
Cold War conflict involved the nuclear balance, instability, error or
miscalculation could destroy all, the world could not live with
nuclear terror
Conventional conflicts along the periphery could be tolerated as
long as there is stability between the great powers,
Global terrorism and WMD proliferation today ensures that
instability in the periphery affects the center now.
Conflicts threaten instability which the international community
can no longer tolerate

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 Global fragility
 States and economies have become increasingly dependent upon the
global economy
 Conflict disrupts international markets, FDI, oil and energy flows, could
wreck havoc with economies
 Economic autarky is a thing of the past developing countries become
aid dependent when they embark upon development, which changes
the structure of their economies, boosts demand, and increases that
dependence.
 The global economy cannot withstand shock, conflict in the Middle
East could affect oil supplies, in developing world could affect access to
resources

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 Human rights and public opinion

 Public opinion in the developed world has a greater influence upon

governments than ever before, [compare with the 19th century]
 A very important domestic motive in conflict resolution influences
governments to take action to resolve conflicts.
 The role of the information industry [the CNN effect, and the internet]
and the mobilisation of public opinion
 The Western public cannot bear to see human suffering, the alleviation
of suffering has become a diplomatic aim
 Public opinion compels the involvement of foreign ministries in the
diplomacy of conflict resolution

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 Types of conflicts
Three types of conflicts, resolution strategies
linked to taxonomy

1. Over tangible gains, or material resources

Resolution by negotiation and compromise
2. As a consequence of state policy failure, or state collapse
UN peacekeeping, peacebuilding, statebuilding
3. Identity disputes
The importance of third party involvement and mediation

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 Conflict over tangible gains
 Border disputes, territory can be negotiated, compromise is
possible, resolution by international diplomacy
 Rationalist theories apply
 Identifiable cost benefit calculation, material aims and
objectives
 Recognition of limits, when costs outweigh possible
benefits,
 Realist theories of state aggrandizement, economic gain
 Resolution of Middle East issue for Al Qaeda

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 Conflict over tangible gains
Territorial disputes
 The type of territorial dispute will in many
respects decide the ease/difficulty or resolution
 The relationship between type of dispute and
resolution
1. Involving peripheral territory
2. Involving territory considered part of the homeland
3. Involving peripheral territory, but elevated by
nationalism to a non negotiable issue

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 Peripheral territory
 Isolated from traditional areas of settlement, small and largely
uninhabited
 Recently acquired
 Mainly maritime
 Of little economic importance
 Resolution by mediation, or submission to International Court
of justice [ICJ]
 Compromise is possible

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 The resolution of peripheral disputes

Ligitan and Sipadan

Distant and remote

Uninhabited, not part of the

traditional area of settlement of
either Malaysia or Indonesia

International Court of Justice [ICJ]

decided in favour of Malaysia [17
December 2002]

Decision based on effective

occupation, Britain, Malaysia
demonstrated an intention to exercise
state functions over the islands

Neither Holland not Indonesia

protested

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 The resolution of peripheral disputes

The East Sea dispute between Japan and

China
China would not negotiate while Koizumi
and Abe were in office
18 June 2008, agreement for joint
development with Fukuda
A temporary agreement until the sea
border is demarcated
The dispute may be linked to the general
condition of Sino-Japanese relations,
an instrument of pressure for China

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 The resolution of peripheral disputes

Singapore-Malaysia dispute
The British colonial government built the
Horsburgh lighthouse on Pulau Batu Putih
or white rock island in 1840s, considered
part of Singapore

Malaysia’s claim was raised when the

December 1979 map included it in
Malaysian waters.
In 1994 they agreed to refer the issue to the
ICJ which decided in favour of Singapore
in May 2008
Singapore had demonstrated continuous
activity to affirm sovereignty, Malaysia did
not protest

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 Homeland territory
The concept of the homeland [Walker Connor]
in ethno nationalist studies
Territory settled for long and continuous period by
people from the state in question
Territory of religious or historical significance for
the state in question
Territory which had been previously included
within state borders, and regarded as part of the
state [Chechnya for Russia]

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 Homeland claims

Mainland China’s claim to Taiwan

regarded as homeland
territory
Why China never raised a claim
to Sakhalin or Karafuto, Ming
and Qing dynasty’s maintained
a claim
Why China could compromise
with Russia over the
Amur/Ussuri border
Serbia and Kosovo, the “cradle” of
Serbian nationhood

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 The Russian-Japan territorial dispute
For Japan a homeland
claim
Definition of the Japanese homeland
including Okinawa and the Ryukyu
Islands
San Francisco Treaty of September 1951
Japan renounces all right, title and
claim to the Kurile Islands
Definition of the Kurile Islands
Subject to the Treaty of Shimoda
7 February 1855, considered as
the border between homeland
Japan
Soviet Union did not sign anyway
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 The elevation of peripheral disputes
Cases when disputes over peripheral territory become major
conflicts
 When other factors intrude to prevent negotiation
In the bilateral relationship, China often links issues to the general state of the
relationship, public opinion may aroused in other countries
Factors external to the bilateral relationship, events which arouse public opinion
 Negotiation and compromise may become impossible, and external
adjudication is excluded
 The result is stalemate

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 The elevation of peripheral disputes
The Sino-Soviet border conflict
Mao Zedong and the Ussuri River clashes of 1969
Harrison Salisbury and The Coming War Between Russia and China, 1969
Under Gorbachev and the post Mao leadership a border agreement reached
on 16 May 1991
A struggle between two regimes/leaderships
Britain and Argentina over the Falkland Islands/Malvinas
Argentine invasion in April 1982
Why Britain’s Margaret Thatcher had to act
To repel invasion in an expression of national pride

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 Bilateral historical factors
The territorial dispute as a symbol of national
resistance
When there are historical factors in the bilateral
relationship which prevent negotiation
The territory concerned becomes a symbol of
nationalist resistance to a larger power, or a means to
rectify injustices against another power or claimant.
Once placed in a context of historical context of
conflict a minor territorial issue becomes a nationalist
saga.

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 Russia-China territorial resolution
Why Russia and China could negotiate the issue
 Strategic rivalry the main factor in the elevation of the territorial dispute
 The resolution of the Russian-Chinese border over 1992-2004
 Ratification of 1991 border treaty by Russia’s Supreme Soviet, status of
river islands left for further negotiation
 By July 1997 demarcation of the Eastern border completed
 Domestic opposition from Far Eastern governors and residents
Yevgenny Nazdratenko of Primorsky krai
Viktor Ishaev of Kharbarovsk krai
 Putin’s final resolution in October 2004, issue of 3 river islands resolved
 When authoritarianism makes possible the resolution of territorial disputes

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 Russia-China territorial resolution
The apportionment of the river islands

Total Ussuri River Amur River Argun River Other

Russia 1,163 167 778 204 14
China 1,281 153 902 209 17
Total 2,444
[Iwashita Akihiro, Slavic Research Centre]

China’s explanation of the agreement

174km2 returned to China or 53%,
The total in dispute was 327 km2

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 Territorial disputes
Vietnam and China, land border
agreement 2002, 2009
India-Pakistan over Kashmir,
linked to homeland issues
India-China over Western [Aksai
Chin] and Eastern [Arunachal
Pradesh] border areas,
negotiations continue
Linked to strategic rivalry
between India and China

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 State structural theories
Definition of a state?
The construction of the state has been flawed or incomplete
Inability to complete the transition to modern governance
 State apparatus cannot devise effective policies for
governance
 Dominance by particular ruling group, governance
according to traditional conceptions, the result is
unwillingness to adjust
 The rule of force provokes rebellion

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 State failure
 State making failures in the developing world, most
conflicts have been intra-state in the developing world,
 States fail to establish internal legitimacy, lack of social
cohesion,
 In Europe state making preceded the development of
nationalism, in the developed world where nationalism and
state making have been concurrent
 The Westphalian states system, peoples and communities
have to be organized in states

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 State structural theories
 States embrace many ethnic groups in the developing world
 State making demands forcible assimilation of minorities and their
subjection to central power to create a unified nationalism.
 Kofi Annan noted that political power in African states is a source of
conflict
 Political victory means a winner take all syndrome, wealth, resources,
patronage,
 A lack of accountability, little transparency, no rule of law, and an
absence of peaceful means to change the leadership.

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 State structural theories
 Political control is a zero sum game in these
circumstances.
 The regime then exploits these communal
differences to maintain power
 Elites may instigate conflict to remove competitors
 State power as an instrument of elite power and
profit
 Factional power struggles result when elites lack
legitimacy, when they are threatened by loss of
power they may provoke communal conflict

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 State failure
Where the Western concept of the state has triggered conflict
State making creates great tensions and stresses which erupt
into internal war
When Yugoslavia broke up into Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Kosovo
The Congo, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan and Dafur, Sierra Leone, Liberia
Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Aceh and Timor Leste
Is there another form of organization that would avoid conflict?
Different levels of governance
Local-Regional-global levels of governance

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 The state as the only building block

 The international community works and thinks in terms of states

 The UN and international community will strengthen, recreate or build
new states
 The UN system is geared to preventing state failure, assisting the state and
now creating new states
 The answer to an internecine conflict is very often the creation of a new
state
Former Yugoslavia-creation of Bosnia and Kosovo
The Middle East-creation of the Palestinian state

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 Identity conflicts
Non rational theories
 No identifiable cost benefit calculation
 An uncontrollable mechanism that pushes a people
into conflict, to the extent of great suffering
 Ethno-national self determination conflicts with state
making, where post colonial borders create conflict
 Cultural identity as the basis for political
mobilization,
 Shared grievances about unjust treatment and need
to protect identity provide base for mobilization
The importance of identity in international relations

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 Identity theory
Primordial versus instrumental interpretations of cultural identity
Primordial ties are what you are born with, your name, family, religion,
and language
Instrumental ties are what you develop with education, or what you
choose
The importance of the group and social bonding
The individual cannot live without a secure identity, and the security of
social bonding
The family, language and religion as the prime means of social bonding
Education and employment offer alternative social bonding within the
primordial context, scientists, bankers and financial analysts

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 Identity theory
 Western orthodoxy tends towards instrumentalism,
because of the political expediency of assimilation
 Democracy, the free market and equal opportunity
may weaken tradition bonding but
What makes a Muslim differ from an American?
What about the Quebecois in Canada? The Hispanics in the
US?
 In the developing world group identity is essential for
an individual

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 Identity theory
Challenged identity as source of conflict
Discriminatory policies adopted by a majority against a
minority
In defence of language, religion and ethnicity
The Serbs and the Bosnian Muslims, the Albanian Kosovars
How the Hindu Tamils reacted against the majority
Sinhalese
African tribal conflicts, the Tutsi and the Hutu
Threatened identity as a trigger for war

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 Identity and conflict
 State making and nationalism arouses ethnic and cultural
consciousness,
 This is the most important challenge to security, the most
common cause of war
 Identity clashes as sources of conflict linked to dominance and
control of the state, adoption of discriminatory policies
 Which group dominates government? The major positions go
to members of the same tribe, or clan.
 When government then imposes religious or language
requirements for education and employment

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 Identity and conflict
Iraq
Saddam Hussein and the Tikrit clan, how the dictatorship was maintained
Suppression of 60% Shia majority and the 17% Kurds

Syria
Bashir Assad and the Alawite minority, a Shia sect at 20% of the population

Lebanon
Civil war 1975-1990, the breakdown of the 1943 National Pact which gave the
Christian Maronites a dominant position
The influx of Palestinians and the PLO challenged this dominance
Since the Israeli invasion and withdrawal [1982-85], Syrian influence has
grown, Syrian military withdrawal in 2005 but influence continues

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 Identity and conflict
Tajikistan
Government dominated by clans from Leninabad and Kulyab regions, opposition from
Gorno-Badakhstan and Garm regions
Civil war 1992-1997, ended with UN and Russian mediation and the formation of a
coalition government

Rwanda
Government dominated first by Hutus then after the genocide by Tutsi
Two Sudanese conflicts
1. Civil war between the Islamic and Arab north and the animist/Christian south
2. Dafur conflict in East Sudan, Arab-African conflict but mitigated by other factors
Sri Lanka
Religion, language and ethnicity, what created the Tamil Tigers?

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 Identity conflicts

Cognitive and social psychological theories

 The role of images of the enemy, they stimulate collective fears which
may explode into violence, ethnic activists can exploit these fears.
 Images may be unrelated to the real situation, and may be strongly
held despite solid evidence to the contrary,
 Images are products of group identity, they are representations of
others
 How Americans view Islam, how Muslims view the US, how Sinhalese
and Tamils view each other
 Examine the popular press to see examples of image building

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 Images
 Shared images can shape the group’s behaviour,
 Sharing of the image is a means of social bonding with the
group, a means of identification for the individual,
 The individual shares the group mythology, its beliefs and
values,
 Changing the image is resisted because it robs the
individual of identity, of belonging

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 Close
 For effective conflict resolution the causes of war and conflict
must be addressed
 Few conflicts can be resolved without the international
community’s support
 They give rise to humanitarian disasters and much suffering
which the international community cannot ignore
 Outside assistance is necessary to bring conflict to an end
 Johan Galtung says that there must be a principle of peaceful
change, to accept legitimate grievances before they break out
into open violence.
 A conflict free world, is peaceful change possible, can there be
an international mechanism of peaceful change
 This would require recognition of the importance of identity
which the West, the US in particular, undervalues
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 A note on sources
This course will rely upon the main textbooks, they have been
through a review process
An abundance of web sites on this course
Official documents
Articles and monographs
Polemical and propaganda sites
Students are advised to read the text books first, before
exploring the web sites, do not go to the sites first

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