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Department of Mechanical Engineering,

Kathmandu University
A presentation on
Problem Assessment of

ESTIMATION OF EMISSIONS FROM DIESEL VEHICLES


OPERATING IN KATHMANDU VALLEY

Prepared By : JEEVAN DHAKAL


Supervised by: Dr. Bivek Baral
Masters Program in Planning and Operation of Energy System
(MPPOES)
Overview
1. Introduction to Kathmandu Valley
I. Location
II. Climate
III. Population
IV. Vehicle trends
2. Road Transport and Air Pollution
I. Diesel fuel and Diesel Engines
II. Emission Control Mechanisms
III. Emission Inventory
IV. Methods for emission estimation
3. Methodology
4. Results and Discussion

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Can you say which city Kathmandu or
Pokhara has more air pollution?

How?

Why?

Why is the air pollution increasing and how to control it?

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Kathmandu Valley
• Location
– Bowl shaped valley with total agglomeration area of 899
square kilometer.
– Consists three districts namely Kathmandu 395km 2, Lalitpur
385 km2 and Bhaktapur 119km2.
– 27o37'30" N and 27o45'0" N latitude, and 85o15'0" E and
85o22'30" E longitude.
– Lies 1425m above sea level at average, Phulchowki (3132m)
in southeast, Shivapuri (2713m) in north, Champadevi
(2400m) in South, Nagarjun (2100m) in West.
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Fig. 1: Geographical map of Kathmandu valley 5
[Source: https://moireosullivan.com/tag/kathmandu-valley/]
• Climate
– Temperate climate conditions.
– Four dominant seasons, Winter, Spring, Summer
and Autumn.
– Daily maximum temperatures on average in June
are at 24 °C while the average minimum
temperatures in January are at 7 °C.
– pollutants in the air are trapped and accumulate in
the valley without dilution by vertical dispersion.

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Fig 2: Wind pattern of Kathmandu Valley and sketch in vertical west-east cross
section [Source: Kondo, 2005]

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• Population
3000000

2510788
2500000

Annual Growth Rate


2000000
of Kathmandu Valley 1656951

is 4.2% and has 1500000

population density of 1000000


1105379

766345
2799.8/Km2
500000

0
1981 1991 2001 2011

Fig. 3: Population of Kathmandu valley Vs Year


[Source: Central Bureau of Statistics, Nepal]

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• Vehicle trends:
– Capital city being a political, economic
commercial and educational hub, rapid increase in
population has led to increase in motorized mode of
transport.
– Imbalance in vehicle growth and road networks due to
increase in travel demand (increase in per capita
income, mobility, educational and job facilities).

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Fig. 4: Vehicle Registration Data for Bagmati Zone from year 2046/47 to 2073/74 B.S [Source: DOTM]
Road Transport and Air Pollution

Fig 5: Emissions from Road Transport [Source: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2016.] 11
• Road transports are one of the major sources of urban
pollution.
• Diesel is major fuel used for road transport.
• Combustion of diesel in external combustion engine
leads to emissions of pollutants like
i. Carbon dioxide (CO2),
ii. carbon monoxide (CO),
iii. hydrocarbons,
iv. Nitrogen oxides (NO),
v. Sulphur oxide (SO2)
Fig. 6: Real Time Air Quality of different
vi. particulate matter PM places in Nepal for 2018/06/06
[Source: pollution.gov.np]
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• More population, more demands for road
transport, more fuel used, more Km’s travelled.
• Limited road networks lead to more congestion
of traffic, leading to decrease in average vehicle
speed which again leads to increase in pollutant
emission.
• This factor has led to Air Quality deterioration
of Kathmandu valley and placed as one of the
worst cities in terms of air pollution.
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• Diesel as Fuel and Diesel Engines
– Diesel engines have high efficiency, durability, and
reliability together with their low-operating cost.
– most preferred engines especially for heavy-duty
vehicles
– Diesel engines are considered as one of the largest
contributors to environmental pollution caused by
exhaust emissions.
– Diesel emissions cause several health hazards.

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• Diesel fuel covered almost 83% of fuel used for transport
LPG; 0.5 sector in
Gasoline;
2000/2001 16.6

• Diesel Fuel Combustion


Diesel; 83.3
The chemical energy of the fuels which is a mixture of various hydrocarbon
compounds is converted
Fig. 7: Fuel usage statistics for
Transport Sector 2000/2001
[Source: Nepal Communication, 2014]

into the mechanical energy inside a piston cylinder arrangement in an ideal


combustion process
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• Ideal reaction for diesel combustion
4 C12H23 + 71 O2 + 263.4 N2→ 48 CO2 + 46 H2O + 263.4 N2

• The real combustion process cannot be ideal due to:


– incomplete combustion of fuel
– unwanted reaction of various compounds due to high
temperature and pressure
– combustion of engine lubricating oil, oil additives and non-
hydrocarbon components of diesel fuel

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• Emission Control Mechanisms
– Catalytic converter
– Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)
– Electronic Fuel Injection System (EFI)
– Diesel Particulate Filters (DPF)

Fig.8 : a) DPF b) SCR [Source: www.dieselnet.com]


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• Emission Inventory
– Systematic collection, compilation and collation of
data concerning air pollution emission over an
area.
– Used to determine major sources of air pollutants,
establish emission trends over time, support air
quality policy development, and provide input for
air dispersion modeling.
– The Answer to how much emission a source is
adding to the environment.
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• Emission Inventory are useful in:
– Defining environmental priorities and identifying the
activities responsible for the problems.
– Monitoring the state of the environment to check that
targets are being achieved.
– Assessing the Air Quality of a place and its affect on the
health of general public.
– Providing information to policymakers and the general
public
– Monitoring policy action to ensure that it is having the
desired effects
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• Estimation of anthropogenic GHG emission in Nepal began
officially in 1994.
• First national GHG inventory report (with 1990 as the base
year) was published in 1997 by the Department of Hydrology
and Meteorology (DHM)
• The second GHG inventory (with 1994 as the base year) was
reported in Nepal‟s Initial National Communication (INC)
• The establishment of road transport emission inventory
requires a large amount of data, such as emission factors,
traffic activity, fleet composition.
• complicated and demanding procedure which requires good
quality activity data and emission factors
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Fig. 10 :Flowchart for estimation of emissions for road transports
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[Source: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2016.]
• Methods for Emission Estimation
1. Tier 1
 Uses fuel as the activity indicator, in combination with
average fuel specific emission factors.
 Used only in cases where more accurate data is
unavailable and where the source is secondary
 Tier 1 emission estimate requires the following
information:
i. data on the amount of fuel combusted
ii. a default emission factor (e.g. provided by the IPCC).

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• The Tier 1 approach for exhaust emissions uses the
following general equation:
Ei = ∑j ( ∑m (FCj,m × EFi,j,m) )

Where:
1. Ei = emission of pollutant i [g],
2. FCj,m = fuel consumption of vehicle category j using fuel m [kg],
3. EFi,j,m = fuel consumption-specific emission factor of pollutant i for
vehicle category j and fuel m [g/kg].

• Vehicle categories are passenger cars, light-duty vehicles, heavy-duty


vehicles, and motorcycles and mopeds.

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• Tier 2
– Tier 2 approach considers the fuel used by different
vehicle categories and their emission standards
– Generally the use of a Tier 2 approach requires data
on the amount of fuel combusted and country-
specific emission factor for each gas.
– the user needs to provide the number of vehicles
and the annual mileage per technology and these
data are multiplied by Tier 2 emission factors.

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• Ei,j,k = ∑k ( <Mj,k > × EFi,j,k)
or
• Ei,j,k = ∑k ( Nj,k × Mj,k × EFi,j,k)
where,
1. <Mj,k> = total annual distance driven by all vehicles of category j and
technology k [veh-km],
2. EFi,j,k = technology-specific emission factor of pollutant i for vehicle
category j and technology k [g/veh-km],
3. Mj,k = average annual distance driven per vehicle of category j and
technology k [km/veh],
4. Nj,k = number of vehicles in nation‘s fleet of category j and technology k.

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• Tier 3
– Emissions are calculated using a combination of firm technical data
(e.g. emission factors) and activity data (e.g. total vehicle km).
– Requires most complex and require the most specific data.
– Emission factors that are dependent upon various combinations of
each:
a) Data on the amount of fuel combusted
b) A country-specific emission factor for each gas
c) Combustion technology
d) Operating conditions
e) Control technology
f) Quality of maintenance
g) Age of the equipment used to burn the fuel .

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• Total emissions can be calculated by
ETOTAL = EHOT + ECOLD
where,
1. ETOTAL = total emissions (g) of any pollutant for the spatial
and temporal resolution of the application,
2. EHOT = emissions (g) during stabilised (hot) engine operation,
3. ECOLD = emissions (g) during transient thermal engine
operation (cold start)

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Fig.11: Algorithm for Emission Factor selection according to different tiers 28
[Source: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2016.]
Vehicle Type Fuel Type Fuel Consumption (Km/L) during
urban drive in Kathmandu valley)
Bus Diesel 3.5
Minibus Diesel 4
Microbus Diesel 6.2
Car Gasoline 13.5
Jeep Diesel 8.5
Pick-up Diesel 6.5
Motorcycle Gasoline 42.5
HDV Diesel 3.5
Mini Truck Diesel 4

Table 1 : Average Fuel Consumption data for different vehicle type and fuel
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type [Source: by Bajracharya and Bhattarai, 2016 ]
Methodology
• Key Words
– Emission factors
– Mobile sources
– Hot emission
– Cold emission
– Evaporative emission
– Vehicle fleet composition
– Pollutant emissions
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• Modelled Area
– Emission Inventory is calculated for Kathmandu valley which consists of three
districts
– Major gateways to enter Kathmandu are Thankot in west, Sanga in Northeast and
Dakshinkali in South.

• Pollutant Gases
– The major pollutants produced by Diesel combustion included for emission
inventory in assessment are
i. CO2
ii. CH4
iii. NOx
iv. PM
v. CO
vi. NMVOC

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• Vehicle fleet classification
Broadly all the Diesel vehicles which operate inside
Kathmandu Valley are covered which are classified as:
1. Bus
2. Minibus
3. LDV (having payload capacity of less than 1815 Kg
4. Diesel passenger cars
5. Jeep/Van
6. Trucks/Lorries
7. HDV ( Rollers, Excavator, etc)
8. Tractor/Trailers
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• Survey
Specific data for vehicle use intensity, vehicle fleet
composition, vehicle survival rate are not available from
the national database or previous reports.
The information to be collected from the survey:
1. Vehicle Type
2. Vehicle registration Number
3. Time period
4. Total number of vehicles
5. Vehicle Model Number ( if feasible)
6. Vehicle Maintenance Cycle
7. Vehicle Scrapping Rate
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• Survey Sites
As covering all the main sites inside Kathmandu valley is
not possible, the survey teams will be based on areas with
higher traffic congestion. Some of the sites are:
1. Lokanthali
2. Satdobato
3. Thankot
4. Chabahil
5. Maharajgunj
6. Balkhu

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Fig.12 : Main survey sites inside Kathmandu valley [Source: Google Image]
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• Survey for Automobile Users
This method of survey will be done by asking the
vehicle users about various information of their
vehicle. The information included will be:
1. Vehicle Registration Number
2. Vehicle Brand/ Model
3. Date of purchase of vehicle
4. Total distance travelled
5. Average Mileage
6. Type of Maintenance

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• VKT for the vehicle can be calculated by dividing the total
distance travelled by the time of operation of vehicles.
VKT per month =

• Survey for Automobile Dealers


The survey for Automobile Dealers will provide the important
information
 Year of manufacture of different vehicle models
 Technology used for catalytic converter and
 the Euro/Bharat stage of engine used.

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• Quantification of emission factors
Vehicle CO2 CO NOx HC PM10 CH4
Type (g km-1) (g/km) (g/km) (g/ km) (g/km) (g/km)

Bus 515.2 4.9 6.8 0.87 1.075 0.09


Minibus 515.2 4.9 6.8 0.87 1.075 0.09
LDV 515.2 5.1 - - - 0.09

Diesel car 54.82 3.16 0.26 0.14 0.18 0.17

Jeep/Van 75.66 3.16 0.28 0.32 0.48 0.17

HDV 82.61 4.9 9.3 0.87 1.24 0.11


Tractor/
515.2 5.1 1.28 0.14 0.2 0.09
Trailer
Truck/
515.2 3.6 6.3 0.87 0.28 0.09
Lorries

Table 2: Emission factors for different pollutants according to vehicle type 38


• Vehicle Use Intensity:
– The average distance travelled by a vehicle in kilometer
in a year, also called 'Annual Vehicle Kilometer
Travelled (VKT)
– The emission quantified on the basis of number of
vehicles and VKT is given by:
Ei = ∑ ( Vehj × Dj) × Ei,j,km

• Where, Ei = Emission for pollutant i


Vehj = number of vehicles per type j
Dj = VKT per year for vehicle j
Ei,j,km = Emission factor of pollutant i for vehicle type j per driven km
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• Average Fuel Consumption
– appropriate for estimation of CO2 as emissions of
CO2 are best calculated on the basis of the amount
and type of fuel combusted
Ei = ∑ Fuelj,k × EFi,j

– Where, Ei= emission of pollutant i


» Fuelj,k= consumption of fuel j for transport type k
» EFi,j= emission factor for pollutant i emitted from fuel j

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Result and Discussion
• Road Transport Emissions are major contributor of urban
air pollution
• Emissions from Diesel Vehicle can be estimated by
different emissions method such as Tier 1,2 &3 method.
• To assess the emission, different surveys have to be
carried out which gives us the present scenario of
vehicular fleet composition, vehicle age composition,
VKT, vehicle survival rate and total fuel combusted.
• The survey includes on-road vehicle count survey,
vehicle user survey, automobile dealer survey, Nepal Oil
Corporation (NOC) and DOTM survey.
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• Hence the problem was identified as “Estimation Of
Emissions From Diesel Vehicles Operating In
Kathmandu Valley”
• A proper methodology and survey method was
presented for the assessment of identified problem
which will be the framework for Thesis/Dissertation.

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• References:
– Nepal Ministry of Population and Environment, "Air Quality Management Action Plan
for Kathmandu Valley," Kathmandu, 2017
– Kondo, "Investigation of air pollution concentration in Kathmandu valley during winter
season," Journal of Environmental Sciences, pp. 1008-1013, 2005.
– Central Bureau of Statistics, "Census 2011," 2011
– 2014 European Environmental Agency, EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory
guidebook 2016.: LRTAP, 2016
– Nepal Ministry of environment, "National Communication," Kathmandu, 2014
– Managemen Department of Transport, "Transport Registration Fiscal Year 2073/74,"
2017.
– Department of Environment. [Online]. www.pollution.gov.np
– Dr. Iswor Bajracharya and Dr. Nawraj Bhattarai, "Road Transportation Energy Demand
and Environmental Emission: A case Study of Kathmandu," Hydro Nepal, pp. 30-40,
2016
– Sarath K. Guttikunda Rahul Goel, "Evolution of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions in
Delhi," Atmospheric Environmen, 2015.
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THANK YOU

Any Questions??

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