Arab Uprising /Spring

2011-2018
 Outline
• Introduction
• Country Specific perspective
• Causes/Reasons
• Impact on the Middle East
 Introduction
• The Arab Spring was a series of anti-
government protests, uprisings and armed
rebellions that spread across the Middle East in
early 2011.
• But their purpose, relative success and
outcome remain hotly disputed in Arab
countries among foreign observers, and
between world powers looking to cash in on
the changing map of the Middle East
 Introduction
• The term “Arab Spring” was popularized by
the Western media in early 2011.
• When the successful uprising in Tunisia
against former leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali
emboldened similar anti-government protests
in most Arab countries.
 Introduction
• The term was a reference to the turmoil in
Eastern Europe in 1989.
• When seemingly impregnable Communist
regimes began falling down under pressure
from mass popular protests in a domino effect.
• In a short period of time, most countries in the
former Communist bloc adopted democratic
political systems with a market economy.
 Introduction
• But the events in the Middle East went in a
less straightforward direction.
• Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen entered an uncertain
transition period,
• Syria and Libya were drawn into a civil
conflict,
• While the wealthy monarchies in the Persian
Gulf remained largely unshaken by the events.
 Introduction
• The resultant political and economic
uncertainty in Middle East in general and Syria
and Iraq has led to the creation of ISIS.
• It has claimed responsibly for Paris and
Brussels attacks in Europe.
• Iran and Saudi Arabia are at loggerheads with
each other. Saudi Arabia has created a 43
countries alliance to counter IS.
 Tunisia
• Tunisia is the birthplace of the Arab Spring.
• The self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi,
• A local vendor outraged over the injustices
suffered at the hands of the local police.
• Sparked countrywide protests in December
2010.
• The main target was the corruption and
repressive policies of President Zine El
Abidine Ben Ali.
 Tunisia
• Who was forced to flee the country on January
14, 2011.
• After the armed forces refused to crack down
on the protests.
• Following Ben Ali’s downfall, Tunisia entered
a protracted period of political transition.
• Parliamentary elections in October 2011 were
won by Islamists
 Tunisia
• Who entered into a coalition government with
smaller secular parties.
• But instability continues with disputes over the
new constitution and ongoing protests calling
for better living conditions.
• Presidential elections were held 2014 and Beji
Caid Essebsi is the new president.
 Egypt

• The Arab Spring began in Tunisia.

• But the decisive moment that changed the
region forever was the downfall of Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak.
• The West’s key Arab ally, in power since 1980.
• Mass protests started on January 25, 2011.
• Mubarak was forced to resign on February 11.
 Egypt
• After the military, similar to Tunisia, refused to
intervene against the masses occupying the
central Tahrir Square in Cairo.
• Afterwards deep divisions emerged over the
new political system.
• Islamists from the Freedom and Justice Party
(FJP) won the parliamentary and presidential
election in 2011/12.
 Egypt

• Their relations with secular parties soured.

• Morsi was elected president who was not
acceptable to the West.
• Meanwhile, Egyptian military intervened with
the support of USA.
• Parliamentary elections were held in 2015.
• Currently in 2018, elections are in progress.
 Libya
• By the time the Egyptian leader resigned, large
parts of the Middle East were already in
turmoil.
• The protests against Col. Muammar al-
Qaddafi’s regime in Libya started on February
15 2011.
• Escalating into the first civil war caused by the
Arab Spring.
 Libya
• In March 2011 the NATO forces intervened
against the Qaddafi's army.
• Helping the opposition rebel movement to
capture most of the country by August 2011.
• Qaddafi was killed on October 20.
• But the rebels’ triumph was short-lived.
• As various rebel militias effectively partitioned
the country among them.
 Libya
• Leaving a weak central government that
continues to struggle to exert its authority and
provide basic services to its citizens.
• Most of the oil production has returned on
stream.
• But political violence remains endemic,
• Religious extremism has been on the rise.
• Fayez al-Sarraj is the president of Libya.
 Yemen

• Yemeni leader Ali Abdullah Saleh was the

fourth victim of the Arab Spring.
• Emboldened by events in Tunisia, anti-
government protesters of all political colors
started pouring onto the streets in mid-January
2011.
• Hundreds of people died in clashes as pro-
government forces organized rival rallies.
 Yemen
• The army began to disintegrate into two
political camps.
• Meanwhile, Al Qaeda in Yemen began to seize
territory in the south of the country.
• A political settlement facilitated by Saudi
Arabia saved Yemen from an all-out civil war.
• President Saleh signed the transition deal on
23 November 2011.
 Yemen
• Agreeing to step aside for a transitional
government led by Vice-President Abd al-Rab
Mansur al-Hadi.
• However, little progress toward a stabile
democratic order has been made since,
• with regular Al Qaeda attacks, separatism in
the south.
• Tribal disputes and collapsing economy
stalling the transition.
 Bahrain

• Protests in this small Persian Gulf monarchy

began on February 15, just days after
Mubarak’s resignation.
• Bahrain has a long history of tension between
the ruling Sunni royal family.
• The majority Shiite population demanding
greater political and economic rights.
 Bahrain
• The Arab Spring reenergized the largely Shiite
protest movement.
• Tens of thousands took to the streets defying
live fire from the security forces.
• Bahraini royal family was saved by a military
intervention of neighboring countries led by
Saudi Arabia,
• As USA looked the other way (Bahrain houses
US Fifth Fleet).
 Bahrain
• But in the absence of a political solution,
• The crackdown failed to suppress the protest
movement.
• Protests, clashes with security forces, and
arrests of opposition activists continue.
 Syria

• Ben Ali and Mubarak were down, but

everyone was holding their breath for Syria.
• A multi-religious country allied to Iran, ruled
by a repressive republican regime and a pivotal
geo-political position.
• First major protests began in March 2011 in
provincial towns, gradually spreading to all
major urban areas.
 Syria
• The regime’s brutality provoked an armed
response from the opposition,
• By mid-2011 army defectors began organizing
in the Free Syrian Army.
• By the end of 2011, Syria slid into an
intractable civil war.
• With most of the Alawite religious
minority siding with President Bashar al-
Assad.
 Syria
• Most of the Sunni majority supporting the rebels.
• Both camps have outside backers. Russia supports
the regime. While Saudi Arabia supports the
rebels. With neither side able to break the
deadlock.
• Al-Assad represents Alawite sect, which barely
constitutes 11 percent of the Syrian population.
• The majority sect is Sunni, making up more than
70 percent of the population.
 Morocco

• The Arab Spring hit Morocco on February 20

2011,
• When thousands of protesters gathered in the
capital Rabat and other cities
• Demanding greater social justice and limits on
the power of King Mohammed VI.
• The king responded by offering constitutional
amendments.
 Morocco

• Giving up some of his powers,

• By calling a fresh parliamentary election that
was less heavily controlled by the royal court
than previous polls.
• This, together with fresh state funds to help
low-income families,
• Blunted the appeal of the protest movement.
 Morocco
• With many Moroccans content with the king’s
program of gradual reform.
• Rallies demanding a genuine constitutional
monarchy continue,
• But have so far failed to mobilize the masses
witnessed in Tunisia or Egypt.
 Jordan
• Protests in Jordan gained momentum in late
January 2011,
• As Islamists, leftist groups and youth activists
protested against living conditions and
corruption.
• Similar to Morocco, most Jordanians wanted
to reform, rather than abolish the monarchy,
 Jordan
• Giving King Abdullah II the breathing space
that his republican counterparts in other Arab
countries didn’t have.
• As a result, the king managed to put the Arab
Spring “on hold”.
• By making cosmetic changes to the political
system and reshuffling the government.
 Jordan
• Fear of chaos similar to Syria did the rest.
• However, the economy is doing poorly.
• None of the key issues have been addressed.
• The protesters’ demands could grow more
radical over time.
 Causes/Reasons
1. Inflation and shortages
2. Unemployment/Underemployment
3. Political/Religious oppression
4. Absence of political dissent/Lack of
participation
5. Foreign interference
6. Kleptocracy
7. Police State
 Causes/Reasons
8. Autocracy
9. Social Imbalances
10. Restrictions on Communication and
Censorship
 Inflation and shortages
• A general increase in prices and fall in the
purchasing value of money is known as
inflation.
• The effects on the economy are varied and can
be both positive and negative at the same time.
• However, the negative effects clearly outweigh
the positive ones.
• In ME inflation was in double digit.
 Unemployment/Underemployment
• According to ILO, unemployment occurs when
people are without a job within the past four
weeks provided they’re actively seeking work.
• Under-employment is defined as the
employment of a person not doing work that
makes full use of their skills and abilities.
• Mohammed Bouazizi from Tunisia is a prime
example, a catalyst for changes in the ME.
 Political/Religious Oppression
• Prolonged cruel or unjust treatment or control
of a group of people is known as oppression.
• Many governments engage in suppression of a
political or religious group on the pretext of
national security.
• The state apparatus argues that the voice of
any specific group can harm the unity of the
country.
• Absence of democracy and sectarianism.
 Absence of political dissent/
Lack of participation
• Political dissent refers to any expression which
conveys public dissatisfaction over the policies
of the government.
• It may come in both violent and nonviolent
forms – including protests, civil disobedience,
strike, lobbying.
• The violent expressions may include self-
immolation, rioting, arson, bombings,
assassinations and armed revolution.
 Absence of Political Dissent/Lack of
Participation
• Suppression of political dissent is very
common in the Middle East and Central Asia.
• The Libyan example is a classic case study.
• The arrest of Fathi Terbil, a human rights
activist arrested in Benghazi by the security
services.
• Triggered massive anti-government protests in
cities across Libya on 16 February, 2011.
 Foreign Interference
• Middle East stands to be one of the most active
regions of foreign interference.
• From meddling into the affairs of the state by
regional players to direct/indirect interference
by US and other western powers.
• This region has seen more than its share of
foreign interference.
 Foreign Interference
• Powers like US, France and Russia that
benefitted from the arms trade while the
country was being reduced to ashes.
• The situation is so grim in Lebanon today that
governments in Beirut are formed or toppled
on the directives coming from either Tehran,
Damascus, Riyadh, Tel Aviv or Washington
DC.
 Kleptocracy
• A group of people that engages itself in
thievery to govern is known as kleptocracy.
• It consolidates the tyrannical powers by
practicing transfer of money and power from
the many to the few.
• The kleptocratic ruling class consists of
moneyed elite that usurps justice, liberty,
equality, sovereignty, and other democratic
rights from the people.
 Kleptocracy
• Just as the Middle East and North African
nations are flush with oil wealth.
• The region is also a haven of kleptocratic
rulers from the shores of the Atlantic to the
warm waters of Persian Gulf.
 Police State
• Police state can be described as a state in
which the government exercises rigid and
repressive controls.
• With the help of secret police forces and
agencies over the social, economic and
political life of the nation.
• Syria is one such state in the Middle East
• Where the dynastic Al-Assad regime represses
people with the help of the secret services and
other state apparatus.
 Police State
• The country is void of any form of political
freedoms and the decades long arbitrary laws
forbid any form of demonstration, activism or
dissent.
 Autocracy
• Autocracy comes from the Greek words:
“autos” meaning “self” and “kratos” meaning
“power.”
• In an autocratic system, one person or group
holds all the power, without the participation,
or sometimes even the consent, of the people.
• It is considered as the opposite of democracy.
 Autocracy
• Egypt under the reign of Hosni Mubarak could
be termed as a classical autocratic state where
any form of dissent was not tolerated.
• Everything revolved around the policies of his
cronies, known as the National Democratic
Party.
 Social Imbalances
• The majority of the population in the Middle
East lives on less than $2 a day
• Relies on government-run health, education,
transportation, energy and food sectors due to
affordable rates and universal accessibility.
• However, as governments adopted the neo-
liberal economic policies in the last few
decades,
 Social Imbalances
• Half of the population living under the $1 poverty
line.
• The people close to the Yemeni President Ali
Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power since the
last 32 years.
• Have grown mega rich while the majority of the
country has witnessed a decline in their economic
standing.
• As a result, the country tethers on the brink of
collapse.
 Restrictions on Communication and
Censorship
• In today’s world, the young generation is
growing up on social media networks such as
Facebook, Twitter, MySpace etc. and is aptly
labeled as the ‘2.0 generation’.
• The young people, under the age of 30, form
the bulk of the population in the Middle East,
above 50% in many countries.
 Restrictions on Communication and
Censorship
• With unemployment levels soaring despite
higher education credentials, the youth have
taken refuge in the ever-powerful world of the
Internet,
• Which provides them not only a voice but also
the skills and qualifications to get employment
and improve their social standing.
Arab Spring Impact on the Middle East
• The Arab Spring’s impact on the Middle
East has been profound, even if in many places
its final outcome might not become clear for at
least a generation.
• Protests that spread across the region in early
2011 started a long-term process of political
and social transformation, marked in the initial
stages primarily by political turbulence,
economic difficulties, and even conflict.
Arab Spring Impact on the Middle East

• End of Unaccountable Governments

• Explosion of Political Activity
• Instability: Islamist-Secular Divide
• Conflict and Civil War
• Sunni-Shiite Tension
• Economic Uncertainty
 End of Unaccountable Governments
• The biggest single achievement of the Arab
Spring was in demonstrating that Arab dictators
can be removed through a grassroots popular
revolt, rather than a military coup or foreign
intervention as was the norm in the past
(remember Iraq?).
• By the end of 2011, the governments in Tunisia,
Egypt, Libya and Yemen were swept away by
popular revolts, in an unprecedented show of
people power.
 End of Unaccountable Governments
• Even if many other authoritarian rulers
managed to cling on, they can no longer take
the acquiescence of the masses for granted.
• The governments across the region have been
forced into reform, aware that corruption,
incompetence and police brutality will no
longer be unchallenged.
 Explosion of Political Activity
• The Middle East has witnessed an explosion of political
activity, particularly in the countries where the revolts
successfully removed the long-serving leaders.
• Hundreds of political parties, civil society groups,
newspapers, TV stations and online media have been
launched, as Arabs scramble to reclaim their country
from ossified ruling elites.
• In Libya, where all political parties were banned for
decades under Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi’s regime, no
less than 374 party lists contested the 2012
parliamentary elections
 Explosion of Political Activity
• The result is a very colorful but also fragmented
and fluid political landscape, ranging from far-left
organizations to liberals and hardline Islamists
(Salafis).
• The voters in emerging democracies, such as
Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, are often confused
when faced with a plethora of choices.
• The Arab Spring’s “children” are still developing
firm political allegiances, and it will take time
before mature political parties take root.
 Instability: Islamist-Secular Divide
• Hopes for a smooth transition to stable
democratic systems were quickly dashed,
however, as deep divisions emerged over new
constitutions and the speed of reform.
• In Egypt and Tunisia in particular, the society
divided into Islamist and secular camps that
fought bitterly over the role of Islam in politics
and society.
Instability: Islamist-Secular Divide
• As a result of deep mistrust, a winner-take-all
mentality prevailed among the winners of first
free elections, and the room for compromise
began to narrow.
• It became clear that the Arab Spring ushered in
a prolonged period of political instability,
unleashing all the political, social and religious
divisions that had been swept under the carpet
by the former regimes.
 Conflict and Civil War
• In some countries, the breakdown of the old
order led to armed conflict. Unlike in most of
Communist Eastern Europe at the end of
1980s, the Arab regimes didn’t give up easily,
while the opposition failed to forge a common
front.
 Conflict and Civil War
• The conflict in Libya ended with the victory of
anti-government rebels relatively swiftly only
due to the intervention of the NATO alliance
and Gulf Arab states.
• The uprising in Syria, a multi-religious society
ruled by one of the most repressive Arab
regimes, descended into a brutal civil war
prolonged by outside interference.
 Sunni-Shiite Tension
• The tension between the Sunni and Shiite
branches of Islam in the Middle East had been
on the rise since around 2005, when large parts
of Iraq exploded in violence between Shiites
and Sunnis.
• Sadly, the Arab Spring reinforced this trend in
several countries. Faced with the uncertainty
of seismic political changes, many people
sought refuge in their religious community.
 Sunni-Shiite Tension
• The protests in the Sunni-ruled Bahrain were
largely the work of the Shiite majority which
demanded greater political and social justice.
Most Sunnis, even those critical of the regime,
were scared into siding with the government.
• In Syria, most members of the Alawite religious
minority sided with the regime (President Bashar
al-Assad is Alawite), drawing deep resentment
from the majority Sunnis.
 Economic Uncertainty
• Anger over youth unemployment and poor
living conditions was one of the key factors
that led to the Arab Spring.
• But national debate on economic policy has
taken the back seat in most countries, as rival
political groups squabble over division of
power.
• Meanwhile, ongoing unrest deters investors
and scares off foreign tourists.
 Conclusion
• It is concluded that Middle East has been
facing upheavals during the last seven years
due to factors both internal and external and
having far reaching consequences not only for
the countries of the region but also for the
world at large.