Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
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Investment decisions and time value of money
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Learning goals
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Materials to learn from
Lawrence J. Gitman: Principles of Managerial Finance,
Addison - Wesley 10th Edition – see sharepoint: CH4 +
web
– http://wps.aw.com/aw_gitman_pmf_11
Lecture material
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Basic principles of finance
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Basic idea and theories
1. Theory of Present
Value
2. Castle-in-the –air
Theory
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Castle-in-the-air Theory
Baloon theory by Lord Keynes
(1936)
Investor psychology
Follow others
Succesful investor: identify
timepoint of building castle in the
air, and buy before that point
„Tronics prosperity”
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Theory of Present Value
Theory by John B.
Williams
Based on : dividends and
assumes long-term
decisions
Compares actual value
and real value
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Basics
Yield
– Rate of return
– Rate of interest
– Income
Maturity
Nominal/ par/face value-the principal
Future and present value
Simple interest
Compound interest
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Concept of time value of money postulate
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Rate of return rule
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Future value and present value
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PV and FV
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Simple interest
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Money market
T-bills
– Domestic instruments issued by governments to raise short term finance
balancing cashflow
– Non-interest bearing and interest-bearing, sold at discount in auction
– Negotiable
– Generally 13,26,52 weeks
Certificate of deposit - CD
– Usually issued by banks, is simple the evidence of time deposit
– Negotiable not as time deposit
– Sold at discount or pay coupon
– Interest payed at maturity
– 30 days to 3 month or could be longer
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Money market securities 2
Commercial paper- CP
– Issued by large, safe and well-known companies
bypassing banks to achieve lower borrowing rates
(sometimes below the bank’s prime rate)
– Very short term (max 270 days, most 60days or less)
– Issued at discount
– Unsecured security
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Money market securities 3
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HELP!!!
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FV
FV = PV ( 1+ r)t PV = $100
r = interest rate r = 10%
PV = recent cashflow FV = ?
t = 1 year
FV = future cashflow
t = 3 years
t = time period FV = 100 (1 + 0.10) = 110
FVIF= (1 + r)t FV = 100 (1.10)3 = 133.
FV = PV ( FVIF)
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Future value and present value
(1 + r)ⁿ is a future value factor (FVF)
To simplify calculations of FV use table of FVF.
Years 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
1 1,01 1,02 1,03 1,04 1,05 1,06 1,07 1,08 1,09 1,1
2 1,02 1,04 1,06 1,08 1,10 1,12 1,14 1,17 1,19 1,21
3 1,03 1,06 1,09 1,12 1,16 1,19 1,23 1,26 1,295 1,33
4 1,04 1,08 1,13 1,17 1,22 1,26 1,31 1,36 1,41 1,46
5 1,05 1,1 1,16 1,22 1,28 1,34 1,40 1,47 1,54 1,61
6 1,06 1,13 1,19 1,27 1,34 1,42 1,50 1,59 1,68 1,77
7 1,07 1,15 1,23 1,32 1,41 1,50 1,61 1,71 1,83 1,94
8 1,08 1,17 1,27 1,37 1,48 1,59 1,72 1,85 1,99 2,14
9 1,09 1,20 1,30 1,42 1,55 1,69 1,84 1,999 2,17 2,36
10 1,1 1,22 1,34 1,48 1,63 1,79 1,97 2,16 2,37 2,59
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Nominal and Effective Annual Rate
of Interest (EAR)
EAR = (1+ r/t )t - 1
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Compound Interest 1
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Capital market
Instruments
– Bonds
– Government bonds
– Local authority papers
– Mortgage or other assets backed bonds
– Corporate
– Foreign
– Junk
– Shares
– Preferred
– Normal
Innovations
– Convertibles
– Variables
Investment notes 25
Present Value
PV = $125 DF = PV / FV
FV = $132 DF = 125: 132 = 0.899
r=?
PV = FV / DF
DF = discount factor
DF = 1 / 1 + r
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2. Future value and present value
Table of present value factor
Years 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
1 0,99 0,98 0,97 0,96 0,95 0,94 0,935 0,93 0,92 0,91
2 0,98 0,96 0,94 0,92 0,91 0,89 0,87 0,86 0,84 0,83
3 0,97 0,94 0,92 0,89 0,86 0,84 0,82 0,79 0,77 0,75
4 0,96 0,92 0,89 0,85 0,82 0,79 0,76 0,74 0,71 0,68
5 0,95 0,91 0,87 0,82 0,78 0,75 0,71 0,68 0,65 0,62
6 0,94 0,89 0,84 0,79 0,75 0,70 0,67 0,63 0,596 0,56
7 0,93 0,87 0,81 0,76 0,71 0,67 0,62 0,58 0,55 0,51
8 0,92 0,85 0,79 0,73 0,68 0,63 0,58 0,54 0,50 0,47
9 0,914 0,84 0,77 0,70 0,64 0,59 0,54 0,50 0,46 0,42
10 0,905 0,82 0,74 0,68 0,61 0,56 0,51 0,46 0,42 0,39
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Compound Interest 2
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Compound Interest 3
DF8 = 0.285
FV8 =CF8 = $ 596
PV = ?
PV = FV (DF) = 596 X 0.285 = $170
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Valuing more assets
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Basic patterns of cash flow
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Annuities
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Annuities 2
End of year CF
1 100
2 100
3 100
4 100
5 100
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Annuities 3
The model of annuities present value calculation is:
PVa = cf / (1 + r)¹ + cf / (1 + r)² + cf / (1+ r)³ + … + cf / (1+ r)ⁿ-1;
Matematical expression:
PVIFAr, t = 1 / r X ( 1 - 1/ (1 + r)t
Pva = CF X PVIFA
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Calculating The Future Value of an Annuity
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Future and present value of stream of
cash flow
Table of future value factor of annuity
Years 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
1 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00
2 2,01 2,02 2,03 2,04 2,05 2,06 2,07 2,08 2,09 2,1
3 3,03 3,06 3,09 3,12 3,15 3,18 3,22 3,25 3,28 3,31
4 4,06 4,12 4,2 4,25 4,31 4,38 4,44 4,51 4,57 4,64
5 5,1 5,2 5,3 5,42 5,53 5,64 5,75 5,87 5,99 6,11
6 6,2 6,3 6,5 6,63 6,8 6,98 7,15 7,34 7,52 7,72
7 7,2 7,4 7,7 7,898 8,14 8,39 8,65 8,92 9,2 9,49
8 8,3 8,6 8,9 9,21 9,55 9,897 10,26 10,64 11,03 11,45
9 9,4 9,8 10,16 10,58 11,03 11,49 11,98 12,49 13,02 13,58
10 10,5 10,95 11,46 12,01 12,58 13,18 13,82 14,49 15,19 15,94
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Calculating The Future Value of an Annuity
Years amount PV
CF = $1000
t = 5 years 1. 1000 1311
r = 7% 2. 1000 1225
FVa = CF X FVIFA 3 1000 1145
FVa = CF X ∑ (1 + r )t-1 4. 1000 1070
5. 1000 1000
? 5000 5751
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Table of present value annuity factor
Years 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
1 0,99 0,98 0,97 0,96 0,95 0,94 0,93 0,925 0,917 0,91
2 1,97 1,94 1,91 1,89 1,86 1,83 1,81 1,78 1,76 1,74
3 2,94 2,88 2,83 2,76 2,72 2,67 2,62 2,58 2,53 2,49
4 3,90 3,81 3,72 3,63 3,55 3,47 3,39 3,31 3,24 3,17
5 4,85 4,71 4,58 4,45 4,33 4,21 4,10 3,99 3,89 3,79
6 5,796 5,60 5,42 5,24 5,08 4,91 4,77 4,62 4,49 4,36
7 6,73 6,47 6,23 6,00 5,79 5,58 5,39 5,21 5,03 4,87
8 7,65 7,33 7,02 6,73 6,46 6,21 5,97 5,75 5,53 5,33
9 8,57 8,16 7,79 7,44 7,11 6,8 6,52 6,25 5,99 5,76
10 9,47 8,98 8,73 8,11 7,72 7,36 7,02 6,71 6,42 6,14
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Thank you
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