PROBABILIT Y IN

SPORTS
 GROUP MEMBERS
• Vishnu Valliappan

• Dhakshin Ram

• Pratham Mantri

• Raj Amit Mota

 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
• Probability is a measure quantifying the likelihood that events will occur. Probability
quantifies as a number between 0 and 1, where, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates
certainty.The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A
simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes
("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability
of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails"
is 1/2.
• The basic terms involved in probability are listed below:
 Experiment: It is one of several possible outcomes that are obtained from any process.
 Sample space: It is the possible outcomes of the experiment.
 Events: they are the subsets of the sample space.
 APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY
Probability means the mathematical chance that something might happen, is used in numerous
day to-day applications, including in weather forecasts, Sports Strategies, Insurance Options,
Games and Recreational Activities, Making Business and many more. Another significant
application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability. Many consumer products, such
as automobiles and consumer electronics, use reliability theory in product design to reduce the
probability of failure. Failure probability may influence a manufacturer's decisions on a
product’s warranty.
 PROBABILITY IN SPORTS
• In sports some events, occurrences and outcomes are more
probable than others, and these information are used in
probabilities to aid performance.

• The effective use of probabilities can also increase

performance based on availability specific situational
information.

• The use of probabilities also helps in distinguishing high

skilled and low skilled players.
 POISSON MODEL
• The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability
of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur
with a known constant

• A simple Poisson model is, well, overly simplistic. But it’s a good starting point and a nice
intuitive way to learn about statistical modelling. rate and independently of the time since the
last event.

• Poisson Model is quite often used in predicting Football matches

• To understand Poisson Model, let’s dig a little deeper.

 UNDERSTANDING THE POISSON MODEL
PREDICTING GOALS IN MATCHES
• Let’s study the 2016-2017 Premier League for instance here.
• You would’ve noticed that, on average, the home team scores more goals than the away team. This
would be a place to use the Poisson Model. It’s a discrete probability distribution that describes
the probability of the number of events within a specific time period (e.g. 90 mins) with a known
average rate of occurrence.
• A key assumption is that the number of events is independent of time. In our context, this means
that goals don’t become more/less likely by the number of goals already scored in the match.
Instead, the number of goals is expressed purely as function an average rate of goals.
• If that was unclear then this mathematical formulation will make it clear :
𝒆−𝝀 𝝀𝒙
P(x) = ,𝝀 > 𝟎
𝒙!
• λ represents the average rate (e.g. average number of goals, average number of letters you receive,
etc.). So, we can treat the number of goals scored by the home and away team as two independent
Poisson distributions. The plot below shows the proportion of goals scored compared to the
number of goals estimated by the corresponding Poisson distributions.
• We can use this statistical model to estimate the probability of
specific events.
• For example let’s find the probability of 2 or more home goals
scored per match
𝜆 = 1.59 ( Average Home Goals For EPL 2016/2017 Season)
P(≥2|Home) = P(2|Home) + P(3|Home) +...
𝒆−𝟏.𝟓𝟗 𝟏.𝟓𝟗𝟐 𝒆−𝟏.𝟓𝟗 𝟏.𝟓𝟗𝟑
= +
𝟐! 𝟑!

= 0.258 + 0.137+...
= 0.47

• The probability of a draw is simply the sum of the events where

the two teams score the same amount of goals.
P(Draw) = P(0|Home) × P(0|Away) + P(1|Home) × P(1|Away) +...
= 0.203 × 0.306 + 0.324 × 0.362 +...
= 0.248

• Note that we consider the number of goals scored by each team

to be independent events (i.e. P(A n B) = P(A) P(B)).
So, hopefully you can see how we can adapt this approach to model specific matches. We just
need to know the average number of goals scored by each team and feed this data into a
Poisson model. Let’s have a look at the distribution of goals scored by Chelsea and Sunderland
(teams who finished 1st and last, respectively) in the next slide.
 PROBABILITY IN CRICKET
• The mathematics of a batsman’s scores is fairly robust. They obey a
common pattern known as a geometric distribution. If you have a good
idea what his underlying average score will be in a certain innings then
you can very accurately predict the probability of him making any other
given score.

• For Test cricket the system takes a batsman’s record against fast and
slow bowlers and adjusts these for the relative difficulties of the
conditions, and the strength of the opposition bowlers (based on their
past records). So, at high scoring venues averages will be adjusted
upwards, against a strong bowling attack they will be reduced. This is
used to predict what the batsman’s average score will be in the innings
and therefore what the probability of him making each possible score is.
We can then simulate the game after repeating this for each player in
the match, randomly generating innings for each batsman, adjusting
scores to mimic how teams behave in certain situations, and giving us a
result.
• We then repeat the process 10,000 times, and count the various results. If Team A has won 3,000 of
the 10,000 simulations then we predict that they have a 30% chance of winning the match.

• In ODI and T20 cricket the model takes into account the same factors (match situation, venue data
and career statistics) and produces probabilities based on a resource-related measure and actual
performance of players are also combined to project the outcomes.

• For Example: Virat Kohli's batting Average in ICC ODI Career is 60.3.This means it is highly
probable that Kohli will score a minimum of 60 runs in every ODI match or near to it. This is a very
good example of probability in cricket which has been derived by :

P(Average) = No. of runs scored in ODI career / total no. of matches played in ODI career
EXAMPLE OF HOW PROBABILITY IS USED IN CRICKET

The probability that England wins a test match is 1/3. If India and England play three test matches,
then what is the probability that India will win 2 Test Matches?

1
P ( E ) = = 0.33
3
1 2
P ( India winning ) = 1 – = = 0.66
3 3
P (W) = 3𝐶2 x 0.662 x 0.33 = 0.44
CONCLUSION
From this project we come to know that:
• Career goals for players can be set based on math that is used.
• Predictions of game results can be made.
• Coaches can make strategic plans based on players strength and weakness.
REFERENCES
• https://dashee87.github.io/football/python/predicting-football-results-with-statistical-modelling/
• www.wikipedia.com
• www.cricviz.com
• Vishnu’s Brain