PROBABILITY

BRIDGE COURSE
 Possibly,it would rain tonight
 There is a high chance of my getting the job
next month
 Here the words like possibly, high chance
indicates a degree of uncertainty about the
happening of the event.
 All these events are random in nature.
 Prob. Theory includes studying such events to
make the best possible decision in the face of
uncertainties.
 Probability is the science of decision – making
with calculated risks in the face of
uncertainty.
 Random experiment : it is a procedure that
can result in many outcomes such that
although all outcomes may be known it is not
possible to predict the outcome associated
with a single experiment. E.g.
 Tossing of a coin whose all possibilities are
known, head and tail, but at each particular
toss, we don’t know if it will face head or tail.
 Sample space : of a random experiment is the
set S that includes all possible outcomes of
an experiment.
 In tossing of a fair coin the set of all the
possible outcomes is {H,T}
 Here, {H,T} is the sample space for this
experiment.
 Trail : each experiment is known as a trial.
E.g. tossing a coin once, is a single trial.
 Event : outcomes of the trials are known as
events. E.g. in tossing of a coin, outcomes are
either H or T. so, H and T are the events.
 Exhaustive events
 Mutually exclusive events
 Independent and dependent events
 Equally likely events
 Complementary event
 Suppose a committee of 2 is to selected from
a group consisting of 5 people say R,S,V,A,N.
find the sample space.
 A manufacturer purchases equipments for
three vendor A,B,C. Let (1,2) denote the
event that on two successive days, the first
day order goes to vendor A and on the
second day vendor B gets the order. Write
the sample space.
 Intersection of events
 Union of events
 Complement of events
 Classical technique
Based on the assumption that all
events are mutually exclusive and are equally
likely to occur.

P(E)=Number of elements in the

event/Number of elements
in the sample space
=n(E)/n(S)
Learning Objective
4-1: Define a
probability, a
sample space, and
a probability model.

If E is an experimental outcome, then P(E)

denotes the probability that E will occur and:
Conditions
1. 0  P(E)  1 such that:
– If E can never occur, then P(E) = 0
– If E is certain to occur, then P(E) = 1
2. The probabilities of all the experimental outcomes
must sum to 1

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 4-11

 A box contains 2 red, 5 white and 6 blue
balls. What is the prob. That out of two balls
drawn, one is white and one is blue?
 What is the prob. That a leap year selected at
random will contain 53 sundays?
 A box contains 8 good pens, 4 pens with
minor defects and 3 pens with major defects.
Four pens are picked at random without
replacement. Find the prob. That
 All pens are defective
 Atleast one pen is good
 Exactly 2 pens are good
 One pen is good, one has a minor defect and
2 have a major defect
 One pen is good and 3 have major defects
 Marginal probability
 Union probability
 Joint probability
 Conditional probability
 Additive law

P(A U B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A П B)
IF A and B are mutually exclusive then P(A П B)=
O
 Multiplication law
P(A П B) = P(A/B)*P(B) when Event B has aleady
occurred.
 Theory of Independence:
P(A П B) =P(A)*P(B)
 Independence : A and B are independent if
and only if P(A&B)=P(A)*P(B)
 Independence : A and B are independent if
and only if P(A&B)=P(A)*P(B)
 ABRC, a leading marketing research firm in India, wants to
collect information about households with computers and
Internet access in urban Mumbai. After conducting an
intensive survey, it was revealed that 60% of the
households have computers with Internet access; 70% of
the household have two or more computer sets. Suppose
50% of the households have computers with Internet
connection and two or more computers. A household with
computer is randomly selected.
 What is the probability that the household has computers with
Internet access or two or more computers?
 What is the probability that the household has computers with
Internet access or two or more computers, but not both?
 What is the probability that the household has neither computers
with Internet access nor two or more computers?
 A company is interested in understanding the consumer
behaviour of the capital of the newly formed state Chhattisgarh,
that is, Raipur. For this purpose, the company has selected a
sample of 300 consumers and asked a simple question, ”Do you
enjoy shopping?” out of 300 respondents, 200 were males and
100 were females. Out of 200 males, 120 responded Yes and out
of 100 females, 70 responded yes. A respondent is selected
randomly. Construct a probability matrix and ascertain the
probability that:
◦ The respondent is a male
◦ Enjoys shopping
◦ Is a female and enjoys shopping
◦ Is a male and does not enjoy shopping
◦ Is a female or enjoys shopping
◦ Is a male or does not enjoy shopping
◦ Is a male or female
Learning objective
4-4: Compute
conditional
probabilities and
assess
independence.

• A Contingency Table Summarizing Crystal’s

Cable Television and Internet Penetration
(Figures in Millions of Cable Passings)

Has cable Does Not Have

Events Total
Internet Service , B Internet Service , B
Has Cable Televisio n Service 6.5 5.9 12.4
Does Not Have Cable
3.3 11.7 15.0
Television Service , A
Total 9.8 17.6 27.4

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 4-20

• What is the probability of selecting a)cable television
service
• B)cable internet service
• C)both
• D)probability of selecting television service but not cable
service
• E)Probability of selecting cable service and not television
service
• F)probablity of not selecting both
• G)probility of selecting either of them

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 4-21

EXAMPLE

 A market research firm is interested in

surveying certain attitudes in a small
community. There are 1250 households
broken down acc to income, ownership of a
telephone and with
Household ownership
annual ofHousehold
a T.V.with annual
income <=30000 income >30000

Telephone No telephon Telephone No telephon

subscr. subscr.
Own TV set 270 200 180 100

No TV set 180 100 120 100

 What is the prob of obtaining a TV owner in
drawing of households at random?
 If a household has annual income over Rs.
30,000 and is a telephone subscriber, what is
the prob that he has a TV?
 What is the conditional prob of drawing a
household that owns a TV, given that the
household is a telephonic subscriber?
 Formal Rule: Marginal probability for event A=

P(A)  P(A | B1)P(B1)  P(A | B2 )P(B2 )    P(A | Bk )P(Bk )

k

 Where: Bi  1.0 and P(Bi &B j )  0 (mutually exclusive)

i 1
 A company uses three different assembly lines –
A1, A2 and A3 to manufacture a particular
component. Of those manufactured by line A1,
there are 5% that need rework to remedy a defect,
whereas 8% of A2’s components need rework and
10% of A3’s need rework. Suppose that 50% of all
components are produced by line A1, while 30% are
produced by line A2 and 20% come from the line
A3. What is the probability that a randomly selected
component?
◦ Came from line A1 and needed rework?
◦ Needed rework?
◦ Came from line A2, given that it needed rework?
◦ Came from line A3 and needed rework?
 A problem in Statistics is given to three
students A, B and C whose chances of solving
it are ½, 3/4, ¼ respectively. What is the
probability that the problem will be solved if
all of them try independently?
 A and B alternately cut a pack of cards and
the pack is shuffled after each cut. If A starts
the game in continued until one cuts a
diamond, what are the respective chances of
A and B first cutting a diamond?
 A, B and C plays a game and the chances of their
winning it in an attempt are 2/3, ½ and ¼
respectively. A has the first chance, followed by B
and then by C. This cycle is repeated till one of
them wins the game. Find their respective
chances of winning the game.
 A and B throw alternatively with a pair of
balanced dice. A wins if he throws a sum of six
points before B throws a sum of seven points,
while B wins if he throws a sum of seven points
before A throws a sum of six points. If A begins
the game, show that his probability of winning is
30/61.