Monday, October 27, 2005

CLIMATE
Radiation Balance and History
“Climate is what you expect,
weather is what you get”

(Mark Twain*)
 CLIMATE 3 October 2019

Radiation Balance and History

Elements of Climate
Temperature, Humidity, Precipitation,
Atmospheric Pressure, Windiness, Storminess,
Cloudiness & Visibility, Seasonality
Key Points:
• Sun dominates surface energy balance
• Solar Radiation can be reflected, absorbed or re-emitted
• The system is balanced (IN=OUT). Therefore, T is determined
by HOW (not how much) solar energy is lost to space.
CALCULATING THE EARTH’S TEMPERATURE

Solar Const (L) OUT =

(W/m2) “Blackbody” Energy
x x
Absorb Area Emission Area
(Solar view of E)
(m2)

IN = (1-A) pr2L

Case 1: Atmosphere-less Earth

Radiative Equilibrium: INCOMING = OUTGOING
(4 pr2 ) sTe4 = (1 - A) pr2L
Cancel terms and rearranging, we obtain:
4 s Te4 = (1-A) L
Te = [ (1-A) L / 4 s ] 1/4
We know (or assume):
L = 1360 W/m2 or 1.360 x 106 erg cm-2 s-1
A = 0.3
s = 5.67 × 10-5 erg cm-2 s-1 K-4 (Stefan-Boltzman’s constant)

Te = 255 K (or -18 oC)

NOTE: Moon is -20 oC! (Does above Eqn Apply to moon as well?)
CALCULATING THE EARTH’S TEMPERATURE

Solar Constant (L) OUT =

x “Blackbody” Energy
Absorb Area x
Emission Area

IN = (1-A) pr2L

Assume that the atmosphere is not absorbing incoming radiation

Case 1: 1Layer Atmosphere

Radiative Equilibrium: INCOMING = OUTGOING
IR a, up = (1 - A) pr2L = (4 pr2 ) sTa4
This is the same as before, except that T is the T of the atmosphere Ta):
Ta = [ (1-A) L / 4 s ] 1/4 = 255 oK (-18 oC) !
As an approximation:
IR e = 2 IR a, up (equal probability of radiation up or down)

(4 pr2 ) sTe4 = 2(4 pr2 ) sTa4

Te4 = 2Ta4
Te = 21/4 Ta = 1.2 Ta = 1.2 (255 oK)

Te = 306 oK (~30 oC)

The GREENHOUSE Effect

ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS:
IR a, up = (1 - A) pr2L
This is the same as before, except that T is the T of the atmosphere Ta):
Ta = [ (1-A) L / 4 s ] 1/4 = 255 oK (-18 oC) !
What if 50 % of outgoing is not absorbed at all by the atmosphere?
IR e = (4/3) IR a, up (equal prob up/down for the 50% absorbed)

sTe4 = (4/3) sTa4

50%IRe 25%IRe

Te4 = (4/3) Ta4

25%IRe Te = (4/3) 1/4 Ta = 1.07 Ta = 1.07 (255 oK)

Te = 274 oK (~0 oC)

GREENHOUSE-sensitivity to the T Effect!

Assignment # 2:
1. Calculate the surface temperature of a model Earth with two (2)
atmospheric layers as sketched below:
50% IRb,up

Layer B
In
50%

Layer A

50% 50% IRb,up

2. Second Case: 2 layers: (LayerA: 50:50 and Layer B: 75:25 (75 up, 25 down)
How do we know?

How well do we know?

Atmosphere and Climate Through Time
Glaciation <100 2.7|||||||||||||||||1.8 940| | | | | (770,615,430,250)

Faint Young Sun Paradox

Cenozoic Cooling Documented in the Deep Sea
T oC = 16.9 - 4.2 (18Ocal - 18Oocean) + 0.13 (18Ocal - 18Oocean)2

WHY??
CO2 Drawdown By Erosion and Weathering of the Growing Himalayas
 Temperature of Ocean Surface from 1 MY BP
Glacial  Interglacial

T-History in Pacific
Deep Sea Sediments

Cold, lots of ice, high 18Oocean

18O Pacific Ocean
Milankovich
Cycles
 Last 20 ky

Last Glaciers
Present
PRESENT GLOBAL WARMING?
IPCC REPORT 2001
What is to blame??

0.8oC
The Prime Suspect: Green House Gases

Gases and aerosols in the atmosphere - human action is adding to

the greenhouse effect by increasing the concentrations of
greenhouse gases and aerosols through:

 industrial activity (burning of fossil fuels)

 deforestation

 releases of chlorofluorocarbons

The specific impact of human activity is still controversial, as is

evident in the delayed ratification of the Kyoto Agreement.
Greenhouse gases: Atmospheric Coolants

Water Vapor Stratospheric dust

CO2 Sulfate aerosols
CH4
Nitrous Oxide
Ozone
CFC11
CFC12
HCFC22
HFC-134a
 Additive Terms Subtractive Terms
(Sources) (Sinks)

ATMOSPHERIC RESERVOIR

Chemical Formation Chemical Destruction

2 4

1 3

Emission Deposition
Land
Greenhouse gases: Atmospheric Coolants

Water Vapor Stratospheric dust

CO2 Sulfate aerosols
CH4
Nitrous Oxide
Ozone
CFC11
CFC12
HCFC22
HFC-134a
What greenhouse gases are of most concern?

0. Water (has to be dealt with as a feedback forcing)

 Although amount of water in atmosphere is not increasing -

global warming from increases in other greenhouse gases
could lead to enhanced evaporation and increases in water
vapor (where?)
1. Carbon dioxide -

 increases over last few decades

 increases over last few centuries
 Carbon cycle and the missing carbon

 CO2 is responsible for about 60% of human-

enhanced greenhouse effect

 Geographic distribution of carbon dioxide emissions

MISSING CO2 (pre-1990s)?

?
Fossil Fuel (5) + = Atmospheric Increase (3) +
Destruction of Vegetation (1.8) Oceanic Uptake (1.6)
+ Missing CO2 (2.2)
IPCC ANSWER
 Global Net Ecosystem Productivity
4
Sink

Net ecosystem productivity, Gt C yr –1

2

Source
–2
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Predicted effects of changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 on the global

net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems -- this model shows the
sink maximizing in about 2050 and declining to zero by 2100 -- other
models tend to show constant or less of a decline after 2050
2. Nitrous oxide (N2O)

 contributes to a minor extent to destruction of ozone

in stratosphere (indirect)
 trends in time as direct greenhouse gas
1.03 – 5.8
3. Methane (CH4)

 very effective greenhouse gas (GWP)

 trends in time
 sources and sinks
 CH4 is associated more with plantation agriculture,
especially rice production, cattle raising, termites,
and natural gas release (chlathrates)
 ?

1.03 – 5.8
4. Chlorofluorocarbons

 exclusively of industrial origin

 direct effect as greenhouse gas with large GWP

 indirect effect on ozone layer
 trends in time
5. ozone (O3)

 greenhouse gas, ozone layer

 natural sources - electrical storms, decomposing

plants, fires
 important greenhouse gas - absorbs uv radiation
 occurs in troposphere (increasing) and stratosphere
(decreasing)
 a pollutant in the troposphere (responsible for smog -
toxic)
 filters UV in stratosphere
 Origin of Tropospheric Ozone
O2
O O3
Stratosphere
Tropopause
Troposphere
O2 O

hn
NO HNO3
O3 NO2 RNO3
hn,H2O
OH HO2 deposition

H2O2
deposition
CO, HC NOx
Combustion Combustion
Industry Lightning
Biosphere Soils
Anti-Greenhouse
 Cause and Effect in Science

Average

Temperature

(oC)

270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350

CO2 (ppmV)
 Cause and Effect in Science

Average

Temperature

(oC)

893 894 895 896 897 898 899 900 910

Average Diameter of Ohio Chicken Eggs (eggometer)

DISPROVING THE HYPOTHESIS
How about EXTERNAL FORCING?

 ENERGY IN (solar energy @ top of the atm) IN

 ENERGY REACHING GROUND (IN - abs) AL

 ENERGY RE-EMMITED TO SPACE (Out-Abs) IR

? IN IR

? ?
AL
Sunspot (dark) surrounded by extra bright areas with larger area!
Intensity of Hotspots
Duration of Hotspots
A SMOKING GUN?
 SULFATE AEROSOLS

Cooling factor associated w/ aerosol production

NON-STEADY STATE:

M (kg) mass of X in atmosphere

P (kg/yr) total production rate (all sources, (1) + (2))
L (kg/yr) total loss rate (all sinks, (3) + (4))
dM/dt (kg/yr) non-steady-state change in X

dM/dt = P - L

RECALL:

In steady state : τ (residence time) is M/P or M/L, dM/dt = 0

In non-steady-state: dM/dt  0, but τ (response time) is defined
as Mt/L
Note: the equations are shown here in their simplest forms and are NOT for the most part balanced. In fact the reactions are orders of magnitude
AUTOTROPHY (CO2 fixation)
Photosynthesis
Electron- acceptor (oxidant) + electron donor (reducer = oxidizable substrate = reductant) biomass +
CO2 + H2O + e CH2O + O2
Chemosynthesis (Chemoautotrophs)
CO2 + H+X CnHn0n + waste + energy general fo
CO2 + H2 CnHn0n + CH4 + ATP Methanog
CO2 + H2O + CO CnHn0n + CO2 + ATP Carboxydo
CO2 + NH4+- CnHn0n + NO2- + ATP Nitrifying
CO2 + H2O + NO2- CnHn0n + NO3- + ATP Nitrifying
CO2 + H2S CnHn0n + SO42- + ATP Sulfur Oxi
CO2 + H2O + Fe2+ CnHn0n + Fe3+ + ATP Iron Bacte
CO2 + H2 CnHn0n + H2O + ATP Hydrogen
HETEROTROPHY (RESPIRATION)
Electron
donor
(food =
oxidizable-
substrate) + Electron
acceptor
(Oxidant) waste + energy
CH20 + O2 CO2 + H2O + ATP Aerobic re
CnHn0n + SO42- H2S + CO2 + H2O + ATP Sulfur red
CnHn0n + NO3- NO2 + H2O + ATP Nitrite Res
CnHn0n + NO2- N2O + H2O + ATP Denitrifica
Note: aerobic respiration provides more ATP than others which are anaerobic
Fermentation
Respiration without terminal electron acceptor (poor suppliers of ATP)
e.g. alcoholic fermentation: glucose ethanol

e.g. lactic acid fermentation: glucose lactic acid

The Big Daddy:
Role of CO2
 Agricultural practices are affecting the
environment and environmental degradation
threatens food availability
Climate change and other environmental
issues are inter-linked
 Major Conclusions
• The Earth’s climate is warming -- human activities are
primarily responsible -- further climate change is
inevitable without actions to reduce GHG emissions

• Most socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and

human health will be adversely affected by climate change,
with developing countries being the most vulnerable

• Technologies are available to reduce greenhouse gas

emissions but policies and measures are needed to realize
the technological potential
 IPCC Synthesis Report
Part II - Habiba Gitay

• Climate change: observed and

projected–changes in the mean state,
variability and extreme events
• Observed and projected impacts of
climate change on ecological systems,
socio-economic sectors (including
human health), and approaches to
adapt to climate change
Human activities have changed the composition
of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era
The Land and Oceans have warmed
Precipitation patterns have changed
 The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-
Nino events have increased in the last 20 years

El Niño years

La Niña years

The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the

tropics and subtropics
Sea Levels have risen
 Observed regional changes in temperature have
been associated with observed changes in physical
and biological systems

Examples include:
• non-polar glacier retreat
• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in
summer
• earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding
season for plants and animals in the N.H.
• poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of
plants, birds, fish and insects; earlier spring
migration and later departure of birds in the N.H.
• increased incidence of coral bleaching
Weather-related economic damages have
increased
Global mean surface temperatures have increased
Most of the observed warming in the past 50
years is attributable to human activities
 Greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations,
temperature and sea level are projected to change
Global mean surface temperature is projected to
increase during the 21st century
 Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100

relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC
 Some areas are projected to become wetter,
others drier with an overall increase projected

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

Mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to
0.88m by 2100, but with significant regional
variations
 Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st Examples of impacts
century
• Higher maximum temperatures; • Increased mortality in old people
more hot days and heatwaves in urban areas
over nearly all land areas (very • Damage to crops
likely) • Heat stress on livestock
• Higher minimum temperatures; • Extended range of pests and
fewer cold days frost days and diseases
cold spells over nearly all land • Loss of some crop/fruit
areas (very likely)
• more intense precipitation events • Land slides, mudslides, damage to
over many areas (very likely) property and increased insurance
costs
• increased summer drying over • Reduced rangeland productivity,
most mid-latitude continental increased wildfires, decreased
interiors and associated risk of hydropower
drought (likely)
• increase in tropical cyclone peak • Damage to various ecological and
wind intensity, mean and peak socioeconomic systems
precipitation intensities (likely)
More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological
and socioeconomic systems are projected
Increased water availability in some water-scarce
regions, and decreased water availability in many
water scarce regions
 Initially increased agricultural productivity in some
mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and
sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees

2020s

2050s

2080s
Significant disruptions of ecosystems from
disturbances such as fire, drought, pest
infestation and invasion of species

Changes in the productivity and

composition of ecological systems, with
coral reefs and boreal forests being most
vulnerable
 Branching coral Brain coral

coral bleaching events are expected to increase

Ecological systems have many interacting
non-linear processes and are thus subject
to abrupt changes and threshold effects
arising from relatively small changes in
driving variables, such as climate.

For example:
Temperature increase beyond a threshold,
which varies by crop and variety, can
affect key development stages of some
crops and result in severe losses in crop
yields.
 Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of
millions of people, due to sea level rise and heavy
rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low-
lying deltaic areas.
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a
sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of
adaptive capacity

projected

present
 Effect on human health…

Reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-

latitudes

Increased incidence of heat stress mortality,

and the number of people exposed to vector-
borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue
and water-borne diseases such as cholera,
especially in the tropics and sub-tropics
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to
climate change

• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone

and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive
sectors
• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial,
institutional and technological capacity and access to
knowledge
• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately
upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons
within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status
and access to adequate food, clean water and other
resources.
• Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in
most developing countries
 Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse
effects of climate change and can often produce
immediate ancillary benefits, but cannot prevent all
damages

• Numerous adaptation options have been

identified that can reduce adverse and enhance
beneficial impacts of climate change, but will incur
costs
• Greater and more rapid climate change would
pose greater challenges for adaptation
 PROBLEM SET #3:

IR a, up = (1 - A) pr2L
T of the top of the atmosphere:
Ta = [ (1-A) L / 4 s ] 1/4 = 255 oK (-18 oC) !
1. What if there are 2 layers: (Layer1: 50:50 and Layer 2: 50:50 (of the 50%)
(This is the same as 25% through to space and 75% retained)?
Opposite of what was done in class: IRe = 4 IR a,up (Te4 = 4 Ta4)

Te = (4) 1/4 Ta = 1.41Ta = 1.41 (255 oK)

Te = 360 oK (~ 87 oC)

2. What if there are 2 layers: (Layer1: 50:50 and Layer 2: 75:25 (of the 50%)
(This is the same as 37.5% through to space and 62.5% retained)?
IR e = (2.66) IR a, up
sTe4 = (2.66) sTa4
Te4 = (2.66) Ta4
Te = (2.66) 1/4 Ta = 1.28 Ta = 1.28 (255 oK)

Te = 325 oK (~52.7oC)