FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND PLANNING An Overview of Financial Planning 2
What is the primary objective of preparing
financial plans? To estimate the future financing requirements in advance of when the financing will be needed.
The process of planning is critical to force
managers to think systematically about the future, despite the uncertainty of future.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
An Overview of Financial Planning (cont.) 3
Most firms engage in three types of planning:
Strategic planning,
Long-term financial planning, and
Short-term financial planning
Strategic plan defines, in very general terms, how
the firm plans to make money in the future. It serves as a guide for all other plans.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
An Overview of Financial Planning (cont.) 4
The long-term financial plan generally
encompasses a period of three to five years and incorporates estimates of the firm’s income statements and balance sheets for each year of the planning horizon.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
An Overview of Financial Planning (cont.) 5
The short-term financial plan spans a period
of one year or less and is a very detailed description of the firm’s anticipated cash flows. The format typically used is a cash budget, which contains detailed revenue projections and expenses in the month in which they are expected to occur for each operating unit of the company.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
Developing Long-Term Financial Plan 6
Forecasting a firm’s future financing needs
using a long-term financial plan can be thought of in terms of three basic steps: 1. Construct a sales forecast 2. Prepare pro-forma financial statements 3. Estimate the firm’s financing needs
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
Developing a Long-Term Financial Plan (cont.) 7
Step 1: Construct a Sales Forecast
Sales forecast is generally based on:
1. past trend in sales; and 2. the influence of any anticipated events that might materially affect that trend.
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Developing a Long-Term Financial Plan (cont.) 8
Step 2: Prepare Pro Forma Financial Statements
Pro forma financial statements help forecast a firm’s
asset requirements needed to support the forecast of revenues (step 1). The most common technique is percent of sales method that expresses expenses, assets, and liabilities for a future period as a percentage of sales.
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Developing a Long-Term Financial Plan (cont.) 9
Step 3: Estimate the Firm’s Financing Needs
Using the pro forma statements we can extract the cash
flow requirements of the firm.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
Financial Forecasting Example 10
Table 17-1 illustrates how Ziegen, Inc. uses the
percent of sales method to construct pro forma income statement and pro forma balance sheet.
The company uses the three-step approach to
financial planning.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
Financial Forecasting Example (cont.) 11
Step 1: Forecast Revenues and Expenses
Zeigen’s financial analyst estimate the firm will earn 5%
on the projected sales of $12 million in 2010. Zeigen plans to retain half of its earnings and distribute the other half as dividends. See Table 17-1
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2) 12 Financial Forecasting Example (cont.) 13
Step 2: Prepare Pro Forma Financial Statements
The firm’s need for assets to support firm sales is
forecasted using percent of sales method, where each item in the balance sheet is assumed to vary in accordance with its percent of sales for 2010.
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Financial Forecasting Example (cont.) 14
Step 3: Estimate the Firm’s Financing
Requirements This involves comparing the projected level of assets needed to support the sales forecast to the available sources of financing. In essence, we now forecast the liabilities and owner’s equity section of the pro forma balance sheet.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
Sources of Spontaneous Financing – Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses 15
Accounts payable and accrued expenses are typically
the only liabilities that vary directly with sales. Accounts payable and accrued expenses are referred to as sources of spontaneous financing. The percent of sales method can be used to forecast the levels of both these sources of financing.
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Sources of Discretionary Financing 16
Raising financing with notes payable, long-term debt
and common stock requires managerial discretion and hence these sources of financing are called discretionary sources of financing. The retention of earnings is also a discretionary source as it is the result of firm’s discretionary dividend policy.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
Summarizing Ziegen’s Financial Forecast 17
Discretionary Financing Needs (DFN)
= {Total Financing Needs} less {Projected Sources of Financing}
= {$7.2 m (increase in assets)} – {$2.4m in spontaneous
financing + $2.5m in short and long-term debt + $1.8 million in equity} = $7.2 million - $6.7 million = $500,000
Unlike a long-term financial plan that is prepared
using pro forma income statements and balance sheets, short-term financial plan is typically presented in the form of a cash budget that contains details concerning the firm’s cash receipts and disbursements.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
Developing Short-Term Financial Plan (cont.) 26
Cash budget includes the following main
elements: Cash receipts, Cash disbursements,
Net change in cash, and
New financing needed.
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Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2) 27 Uses of the Cash Budget 28
1. It is a useful tool for predicting the amount and
timing of the firm’s future financing requirements.
2. It is a useful tool to monitor and control the
firm’s operations.
Siti Aishah Kassim (FM1n2)
Uses of the Cash Budget (cont.) 29
The actual cash receipts and disbursements can be
compared to budgeted estimates, bringing to light any significant differences.
In some cases, the differences may be caused by
cost overruns or poor collection from credit customers. Remedial action can then be taken.