Sie sind auf Seite 1von 53

The Proliferation of Weapons

of Mass Destruction
Today’s
overview
• History of WMD -
Chemical, Bio, Nuke
• International Treaties
• Nuclear Weapons Today
• North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan
• Iran?
World War I
Chemical
• Non-living
• First use in Western World - Peloponnesian
War
• Rediscovered in Renaissance
Chemical - Modern uses

• Iraq-Iran War
• “Is military research hazardous to
veteran’s health?” (1994) US Senate
• Japan - Aum Shinrikyo
• Russian forces - Moscow theater
hostages
The Chemical Threat
80000 Chemical Stockpiles
70000

60000
31,000

50000

Remaining Stockpile
40000
16,317 Declared Stockpile

30000

40,000
20000

27,771

10000

578
1,055 304
605
16
0 23.6
0
Albania India Libya Russia South Korea US
Units in Metric Tons

Source: Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons December 2006 implementation report,
Report of the OCPW on the Implementation of the Convention of the Prohibition of the Development,
Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction in 2005.
Biological
• Living organisms
– Anthrax
• Cold War focused on retaliation
• A Poor Nation’s WMD
• Iraq
• Nearly impossible to detect
• Dual-use technologies
The Biological Threat
• H5N1/Bird Flu
• 1918 “Spanish Lady”
International Treaties
• 1899 Hague Conference
– Navy Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan - "the
inventiveness of Americans should not be
restricted in the development of new weapons."
• 1925 Geneva Protocol
– Bans chemical & biological weapons
– Nothing on production, storage, or transfer
• 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention
Chemical Weapons Convention
Bans:
* Developing, producing, acquiring, stockpiling, or retaining
chemical weapons.
* The direct or indirect transfer of chemical weapons.
* Chemical weapons use or military preparation for use.
* Assisting, encouraging, or inducing other states to engage in
CWC-prohibited activity.
* The use of riot control agents “as a method of warfare.”

–Didn’t ratify/sign: Bahamas, Congo, Dominican


Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Israel, Myanmar,
Angola, North Korea, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon,
Somalia, Syria
Biological Weapons Treaties
• 1972 Biological Weapons Convention
– 158 states
– Bans creation & storage, but not usage
– Also applies to private parties
• Reviews in early 1990s, US says “not in
national interest” before 9/11.

– 2003: National mechanisms for security


– 2004: Enhancing international response to
disease/outbreaks
– 2004: strengthens detection & capabilities
– 2005: codes of conduct for scientists
Parties to Bio Weapons Treaty
(2007)
The Manhattan Project
• University of
Chicago
• Oakridge TN
(K-25, Y-12, S-
50) for U-235
• Hanford WA for
Plutonium
• Los Alamos NM
for Bomb
Assembly &
Test
The Manhattan Project
Separating U235 & U238
•Gaseous Diffusion
•Electromagnetic
Separation
•Thermal Diffusion
•Centrifuge Separation

•The Girls of Atomic City: The


Untold Story of the Women Who
Helped Win World War II by Denise
Kiernan

YF12 Calutron Operation - Oakridge


Nuclear Weapons
• First known nuclear test was done
in New Mexico on July 16th 1945
• How many tests to date?
• US bombs Hiroshima & Nagasaki
• USSR tests weapon in 1949
• Hydrogen bomb
• Only countries to test weapons:
US, Russia, UK, France, India,
China, Pakistan, and North Korea
(possibly South Africa/Israel).
How to Build “the Bomb”
“Little Boy” Hiroshima
Fat Man - Nagasaki
NPT

• 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty


– Prohibits all above ground testing
• 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty
– Except: India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea
– Non-proflieration, Disarmament, Peaceful
Use
– IAEA
The Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty
1968
• Ratified by 188 states
• Atoms for Peace
1. IAEA – dual mission of prevention &
promotion
2. The Fissile Bank - Failure
3. Goal of disarmament - Failure
• The “Big Five” (haves) v. “have-nots”
Giving up nukes
• South America - Treaty of Tlatelolco
(‘67)
– Weapons-Free Zone
– Gave up programs: Argentina & Brazil
– Nobel Prizes to creators of treaty
• South Africa
– Relinquishes weapons after apartheid
Nuclear Stockpiles
Loose Nukes
• Cold War “Near Misses”
• Deterrence and Balance of Power
• The Former Soviet Union: Nunn/Luger
• A “Dirty Bomb”
• Military Utility of Nuclear Weapons
• Regime Security
• AQ Khan and the Black Market
Chemical & Biological
Weapons

• Easier to make
• Easier to deploy
• Harder to detect
• Harder to fix blame
• Can be used in an
asymmetrical
context
• Therefore, harder to
deter
WMD - Case Studies

North Korea, Iraq, Pakistan & Iran


Nuclear State of the World: N. Korea
• KFR
• Withdrew from NNPT in 1985
• Clinton Agreement
• The North Korean “Detonation”
on Oct. 9th 2006
• Bush Agreement
The KFR
Kim Family Regime & Cult of
Personality
-Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il

-Juche political ideology

-Kim Jong-un family


assassinations

-Maintenance of family
regime over everything
North Korean Nuclear Timeline
New Regime 2011 Kim Jong Un
North Korea (Yong Ban)
N. Korea - Potential Disaster
• -Formidable Threat: 1.2 million soldiers, 100,000
elite forces, one of the world’s largest chemical
and biological weapons arsenals. One million
South Koreans live within Artillery range.
• -Deployment of weapons of mass destruction:
Believed to have 30-60 nuclear warheads, the
likelihood of their use increases with greater
regime instability. Hwasong-14 can hit the US
with potentially a Hydrogen warhead
Potential Disaster (con’t)
• -Regime Collapse: “collapse of the chain of
command of the KFR could be more dangerous
than the preservation of it, particularly when one
considers control over WMD.” -Colonel Maxwell,
• -Refugee Crisis: South Koreans and Chinese fear
an influx of refugees more than NK missiles.
“Mother of all relief operations”: The US could be
presented with the greatest stabilization effort
since WWII, and have to coordinate operations
with the Chinese PLA.
Kim Jong Un’s Objectives
• 1: Preserve the Regime
– Maintain US enemy to justify hardships of the
people

• 2: Gain acceptance to the international


community and get sanctions lifted

• 3: Split the alliance between South Korea and


the U.S. Support in SK for US intervention has
dwindled, & many may rally to nationalist calls
for the US not to interfere.
Kim Jong Un’s Objectives
• 4: Manipulate the South Korean left (by Force or by
guile)
– Olympic diplomacy
– by inflicting sufficient damage to press them to seek a
negotiated settlement.
– provoke American attacks to cause them to place blame
on the US for the violence.

• 5: Nuclear Blackmail or Deterrence?


-(Everyone thought Kim Il Sung was too weak to invade in
1950)
-Force US withdrawal from the Peninsula (or at least stop
exercises.
Cyber War – “The Interview”

• Took out 70% of Sony Pictures computer system


• Ransomware attacks on UK hospitals
• Bangladesh Central Bank
• US Attacks on North Korea (Missile Sabotage)
What Can the US/Global
Community Do?
• China’s role
• Increase/Decrease Sanctions
– 1990 Famine Killed 1/10 of population
• Freeze Exercises
• Accept North Korea as a nuclear power
– Like Pakistan or India
• Attack North Korea
10K US dependents near Seoul
• Trump rhetoric – “Little rocket Man”
• Containment
Reunification
• Regional BOP
– Centers on China
– Threat to Japan?
• Cost to South Korea
• Kim Jong Un?
Iraq
Iraq
• Uses poison gas in Iran-Iraq War, also against Kurds
• Iraq in the 90’s.
1991: Gulf War ends, UN weapons inspectors begin
work in the Iraq.
1992-94: Iraq largely disarmed of WMD’s, while
retaining some research and development
capabilities
1995-96: Saddam’s remaining WMD programs wind
down. Period of weakened internal security and
political turmoil. High-level officials defect.
1998: Saddam kicks out weapons inspectors,
arousing international suspicion.
What we thought (Pollock
• Iraq continues WMD programs in
defiance of sanctions.
• Iraq will have a nuke w/i a decade or 1
year if it can acquire fissile materiel from
abroad.
• Iraq has invested heavily in missile tech
• Iraq has renewed production of
chemical agents and it researching
weaponization of bio agents
What we now know to be true!
• Iraq had preserved some
nuclear technology, but had
not restarted its nuclear
program.
• No chemical weapons or
bio weapons were
produced, but some
research was carried out
and 1 bio lab was
maintained clandestinely.
• Saddam was most
aggressive in pursuit of
ballistic missile technology.
Why we overestimated Iraq’s WMD status
-Throughout the 90’s, Iraqis made repeated attempts to hide WMD activities from
international inspectors.
-Although all weapons had been destroyed, Iraq had preserved production and R
& D capabilities.
-The defection of Saddam’s WMD program director along with other intelligence
finds revealed intentions to continue development, particularly involving missile
production. Iraqis also admitted the continued use of a large bio-weapons
factory.
-it seems that Saddam began to give up these intentions when sanctions were
continually being prolonged due to continual violations. However, hostility to
inspectors went on unabated.
• Overselling the case
• Correcting intelligence problems
Pakistan
AQ Khan “provided the country—single handedly, it
was widely believed—with an arsenal of nuclear
weapons (Langewiesche, 2005).”
AQ Khan

• Background
• Spread technology to:
– Iran, Libya, and North Korea
– Transfer to non-state actors?
• Pakistani & US Reaction
IRAN
Iranian
Nuclear
Sites
What will US/Israel do?
Obama’s Nuclear Policy
• World w/o Nukes, but role
remains deterrence
• Renounce 1st Use
• Will not use nuclear weapons to
retaliate against a non-nuclear
state (including Chem/Bio)
• Remove all weapons from alert
status
• Control all fissile materiel
Trump’s Nuclear Policy