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Old Belief
4s High Quality = High Cost
Quality
Internal & Prevention &
External Appraisal
Costs Failure Costs Costs
New Belief 4s
New Belief
5s
High Quality = Low Cost
6s
Quality
The 3 sigma Company The 6 sigma Company
• Spends 15~25% of sales dollars • Spends 5% of sales dollars on
on cost of failure cost of failure
• Relies on inspection to find • Relies on capable process that
defects don’t produce defects
• Does not have a disciplined • Use Measure, Analyze, Improve,
approach to gather and analyze Control and Measure, Analyze,
data Design
• Benchmarks themselves • Benchmarks themselves
against their competition against the best in the world
• Believes 99% is good enough • Believes 99% is unacceptable
-2
-1
7
1
2
3
6
0
4
between + / - 68.27 % result: 317300 ppm
1s outside (deviation)
between + / - 95.45 % 45500 ppm
2s
between + / - 99.73 % 2700
3s
ppm
between + / - 99.9937 % 63
4s ppm
between + / - 5s 99.999943 % 0.57 ppm
2 308,537 80 800000
70 From 5 to 6 700000
3 66,811 60 600000
50 500000
% Change
PPM % Change
PPM
40 400000
4 6,210 30 From 4 to 5 300000
20 200000
From 3 to 4
5 233 10
From 1 to 2
100000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6
6 3.4
Process Sigma
Process Defects per Million
Capability Opportunities
Baselining SPC
•Y •X1…Xn
•Dependent •Independent
•Output •Input-Process
•Effect •Cause
•Symptom •Problem
•Monitor •Control
Market Share
Customer Satisfaction
Market Share
Improvement
Phase Step Focus
Process Characterization
Measure What is the frequency of Defects? Measure
Control
(What)
Analyze
• Define performance standards Y
• Validate measurement system Y Improve
Control
• Identify sources of variation
Analyze
(Where, When, Why) X
• Determine the critical process parameters Vital X
Improve
Process Optimization
Improve How can we improve the process? Measure
Control
Analyze
• Discover relationships Vital X
• Establish operating tolerances Vital X Improve
Control
Analyze
Control How can we maintain the improvements? Y, Vital X
(Sustain, Leverage) • Implement process control mechanisms
• Leverage project learning's Improve
Lead use
of
Black technique
and 5%~10%
Two green
4 / year
belts
Belt communic-
ate new
ones
Master Consulting/
Five Black
Black Mentoring/ 80~100%
Belts
10 / year
Training
Belt
Core Statistical Skills Core Six Sigma Quality Skills Core Interpersonal Skills
GBM Statistical Software (JMP, Minitab) GBM AIEG QMS GBM Communication (oral, written)
MIN101 AEC722, DDI121
GBM Numerical and Graphical Techniques GBM QS 9000 GBM Team Facilitation
MIN101, IBM548 AEC279 DDI170
GBM Statistical Process Control GBM Customer Satisfaction GBM Coaching and Mentoring
AEC506, AEC661, AEC662, AEC663 SSG100, TCS100 LDR380, PER119
GBM Process Capability GBM Six Steps to Six Sigma GBM Managing Change
AEC661, AEC662, SCP201 SSG100, SSG102CD MGT564, MGT124, PDE532
GBM Comparative Tests GBM Concurrent Engineering BM Leadership
MIN101, SPC201 MGT561, MGT562, DDI180
GBM Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) GBM TCS BM Team Building
ENG998, AEC603 TCS100 MGT560, MGT562, EC727, MGT155
GBM Measurement System Analysis GBM Systemic Approach to Problem M Instructional/Teaching
AEC663 Solving MOT132
QUA392
GBM Design of Experiments (e.g. Full, GBM Team Oriented Problem Solving M Managing Projects
Fractional, Taguchi Designs) (8D, 7D, 5P)
ENG998, QUA389 AEC471, MGT839
GBM Regression (e.g. linear, nonlinear) BM Quality System Review
QUA590
GBM Statistical Process Characterization BM Team Problem Solving Non-
Strategies and Techniques Manufacturing
ENG227 CES103
BM Statistical Inference BM Design for Manufacturability
MIN101, SPC201
ENG123, ENG123CD
BM Confidence Intervals BM Financial/Economic Quality Issues
MIN101, SPC201
BM Probability Concepts and M Quality Function Deployment
Distributions
SPC201 QUA200A, QUA200B, QUA200C
BM Response Surface Methods M Total Quality Management
QUA393
BM Screening DOE M Benchmarking
QUA391 BMK220
M Advanced Problem Solving M Product Development Assessment
Strategies and Technologies
ENG998
M Acceptance Sampling
SPC201
M Sample Size Estimation
Chris Galvin
Motto:
5.6
5.6
DPMOp
Evaluate Control
Understand Process Maintain New Process
Improve
Improve and Verify Process
Measure Phase
Reduce Reduce
Defects Cost
Sampling Plan
- Size of Subgroups
- Number of Subgroups
- Take as many “X” as possible into
consideration
How do we know our process?
Process Map
Fishbone
Historical Data
RATIONAL SUBGROUPS
Minimize variation within subroups
BLACK NOISE Maximize variation between subrgoups
(Signal)
WHITE NOISE
(Common
Cause Variation)
RESPONSE
PROCESS
TIME
Time 1
Time 2
Time 3
Time 4
Time 1
Time 2
Time 3
Time 4
•Called sshift (truly a
measurement in sigmas of how
far the mean has shifted)
•Indicates our process control
s st + sshift = stotal
•The vital few
Between Groups
Assignable Cause
Outside influences
Black noise
Potentially controllable
How the process is actually performing
over time
Fishbone
Common Cause Variation
Variationpresent in every process
Not controllable
The best the process can be within the
present technology
Recommendation:
Resolution 10% of tolerance to measure
Gauge R&R 20% of tolerance to measure
R&R
Part-Part
Evaluate Control
Understand Process Maintain New Process
Improve
Improve and Verify Process
In many cases, the data sample can be transformed so that it is
approximately normal. For example, square roots, logarithms, and
reciprocals often take a positively skewed distribution and convert it to
something close to a bell-shaped curve
What do we Need?
LSL USL LSL USL
Qualitative Evaluation
Technical Expertise
Graphical Methods
Screening Design of Experiments Identify “Vital Few”
Pareto Analysis
Hypothesis Testing
Quantify Opportunity Regression
Design of Experiments
% Reduction in Variation
Cost/ Benefit
Our Goal:
Identify the Key Factors (x’s)
Graph>Box plot Graph>Box plot
DBP
Without X values
1
75% 9
DBP 1
10 0 Day DBP
9 4 1
10
50% 9
0
9
4 9
1
DBP
99 25% 9
0
14 Operator
94
4
0
9 9
9
1
0 Shift 9
4 4
Box plots help to see the data distribution
9
Statistical Analysis
Apply statistics to validate actions & improvements
Hypothesis Testing
7 30
5
20
Frequency
Frequency
4
3
10
2
0 0
0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025
New Machine Machine 6 mths
Regression Analysis
Regression Plot
Y = 2.19469 + 0.918549X Is the factor really important?
R-Sq = 86.0 %
60
the factor?
Y
30
20
10 Regression
95% PI
Has our improvement made an
0
5 15 25 35 45 55
impact
X
1.5
Zshift
1.0
0.5
C D
1 2 3 4 5 6
good
poor TECHNOLOGY good
ZSt
Stop
Fix process
1st piece & design
inspection
Z<3
Prepilot Recheck
Data Obtain data ‘Z’ levels
Z>= Design Intent
M.A.I.C
Pilot data
Reliability (Level)
Time to install
Total Electricity Usage Req'd for System
Time to Repair
Floor space occupied NO INPUT IN THIS AREA
Sensor Resolution
Response time to power loss
Voltage
Power
Time to supply Backup Power
backup power capacity (time)
Sensor Sensitivity
Floor Loading
Time Between maintenance
Time between equipment replacement
Safety Index Rating
Cost of investment
Cost of maintenace
Cost of installation
Years in Mainstream market
Customer Support Rating
Dependency on weather conditions
ECO-rating
Hours of training req'd
Preferred up dwn dwn dwn dwn dwn dwn tgt tgt dwn dwn tgt dwn up up
Engineering Metrics
Cost of maintenace
Cost of installation
Cost of investment
Sensor Resolution
Reliability (Level)
Sensor Sensitivity
Time to Repair
Floor Loading
Time to install
Voltage
Power
Customer Requirements
1 Fast Response 9
2 Long time of backup power supply 9
3 Low environmental impact 9
4 Safe to operate 9
5 Meet power requirements 9
6 Low investment cost 3
7 Occupies small floor space 3
8 Easy to upgrade 3
9 Low upgrading costs 3
10 Low time to implement 3
11 Cheap to maintain 3
12 Low recovery or cycle time 3
13 Long life cycle of the system/component 1
14 Cheap to operate 1
15 Cheap to install 1
16 Long Existing proven technology 1
Step #3
• Gather process capability data.
• Use actual or similar part data to calculate SS of
largest contributors.
• May use expert data for minimal contributors
• Do not calculate s from current tolerances
(+) From process:
Average sst
(-) (-) (-) (-)
Cube 1.250 .001
Box 5.080 .001
Short Term
mgap= 5.080 – 1.250 – 1.250 – 1.250 – 1.250.016
sgap = (.001)2 + (.001)2 + (.001)2 + (.001)2 + (.001)2 = .00224
Long Term
sgap = (.0015)2 + (.0015)2 + (.0015)2 + (.0015)2 + (.0015)2 = .00335
Measure
Characterize Process
Evaluate Control
Understand Process Maintain New Process
Improve
Improve and Verify Process
What Do I need to do to improve my Game?
6s
GUTTER!
To estimate the effects of independent Variables on
Responses.
X Y
PROCESS
Terminology
Factor – An independent variable
Level – A value for the factor.
Response - Outcome
THE COFFEE EXAMPLE
Level
Factor
Low High
Coffee Brand Maxwell House Chock Full o Nuts
Water Spring Tap
Coffee Amount 1 2
Main Effects: Effect of each individual factor on response
3.7
ME
2.2
of trials from 16 to 8.
Fractional Factorial
Taguchi techniques
Half fraction
Mini Case - NISSAN MOTOR COMPANY
Level
Factor
High Low
Adhesion Area (cm2) 15 20
Type of Glue Acryl Urethan
Thickness of Foam Styrene Thick Thin
Thickness of Logo Thick Thin
Amount of pressure Short Long
Pressure application time Small Big
Primer applied Yes No
Design Array
No A B C D Gluing Str
1 + + + - 9.8
2 + + - - 8.9
A - Adhesion Area (cm2)
B - Type of Glue 3 + - + + 9.2
C - Thickness of Foam 4 + - ` - + 8.9
Styrene
5 - + + - 12.3
D - Thickness of Logo
6 - + - - 13
7 - - + + 13.9
8 - - - + 12.6
Effect Tabulation
A B C D
+ 4.60 5.50 5.65 5.58
- 6.48 5.58 5.43 5.50
Factor Effect Plot
6.5
5.58 5.65 5.58
5.5 5.43 5
4.6
+ - + - + - + -
1. Define Objective.
2. Select the Response (Y)
3. Select the factors (Xs)
4. Choose the factor levels
5. Select the Experimental Design
6. Run Experiment and Collect the Data
7. Analyze the data
8. Conclusions
9. Perform a confirmation run.
“….No amount of experimentation can prove
me right; a single experiment can prove me
wrong”.
- Albert Einstein
Measure
Characterize Process
Evaluate Control
Understand Process Maintain New Process
Improve
Improve and Verify Process
Control Phase Activities:
-Confirmation of Improvement
-Confirmation you solved the practical problem
-Benefit validation
-Buy into the Control plan
-Quality plan implementation
-Procedural changes
-System changes
-Statistical process control implementation
-“Mistake-proofing” the process
-Closure documentation
-Audit process
-Scoping next project
How to create a Control Plan:
SUPERVISION DIRECTORY
ORGANIZATION
MATRIX DIAGRAM
HOWS
Attendant assigned
Attendant assigned
RELATIONSHIP
Obtains equipment
Transports patient
Patient scheduled
Attendant arrives
Attendant arrives
Notifies of return
Provide Therapy
Patient returned
MATRIX
CUSTOMER
WHATS IMPORTANCE
MATRIX
Arrive at scheduled time 5 5 5 5 1 5 0 0 0 0 0
Arrive with proper equipment 4 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dressed properly 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Delivered via correct mode 2 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Take back to room promptly 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5
IMPORTANCE SCORE 39 25 25 27 25 0 20 20 20 20
RANK 1 3 3 2 3 7 6 6 6 6
CHARACTERISTICS:
•Uncover patterns in
cause and effect
Total arrows
Out arrows
In arrows
Strength
Add features 5 0 5 45
Make existing product faster 2 1 3 27
Make existing product easier to use 1 2 3 21
Leave as-is and lower price 0 3 3 21
Devote resources to new products 1 1 2 18
Increase technical support budget 0 2 2 18
Control Plan Tools:
Yes
Oport. Area Yes
Normally Interest in Yes
constant from
C, u dist. data X, Rm sudden mean
sample to
changes
sample
No No
No
If mean is big, X
u and R are effective MA, EWMA or X-R
too CUSUM and
Yes Rm
Size of the
subgroup p, np Use X - R chart
constant
with modified
More efective to
rules
No Ir neither n nor p
detect gradual
changes in long
are small: X - R, X -
term
p Rm are effective
Additional Variable based tools:
1. PRE-Control
•Algorithm for control based on tolerances
•Assumes production process with measurable/adjustable
quality characteristic that varies.
•Not equivalent to SPC. Process known to be capable of
meeting tolerance and assures that it does so.
•SPC used always before PRE-Control is applied.
•Process qualified by taking consecutive samples of individual
measurements, until 5 in a row fall in central zone, before 2
fall in cautionary. Action taken if 2 samples are in Cau. zone.
•Color coded
RED YELLOW GREEN YELLOW RED
ZONE ZONE ZONE ZONE ZONE
PRE-Control
DIMENSION
PRE-Control
Reference
NOMINAL
Reference
Toleranc
Toleranc
e Limt
e Limt
High
Line
Low
Line
Degrees
112 108.83 3.17
100
101 111.68 -10.68 Sand
100 102.07 -2.07
92 100.21 -8.21
Temperature
102 98.22 3.78 50 EWMA
111 101.62 9.38
107 110.60 -3.60
112 107.30 4.70 0
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
1
4
7
112 111.53 0.47
122 111.95 10.05
140 121.00 19.00 Observations
125 138.00 -13.00
130 126.31 3.69
136 129.63 6.37
130 135.36 -5.36
112 130.54 -18.54
115 113.85 1.15
100 114.89 -14.89
113 101.49 11.51
111 111.85 -0.85
Project Closure
AlliedSignal ROI
1992-1996
• $1.4 Billion cost reduction.
• 14% growth per quarter.
• 520% price/share growth.
• Reduced new product introduction time by 16%.
• 24% bill/cycle reduction.
General Electric ROI
1995-1998
• Company wide savings of over $1 Billion.
• Estimated annual savings to be $6.6 Billion by the year 2000.
Control Engineering On line, “Design for Six Sigma Capability”
http://www.controleng.com/, 1999
Forrest W. Breyfogle III, “Implementing Six Sigma”, John Wiely & Sons, Inc,1999