Mengenal Trend Following Technique

untuk Transaksi di Commodity Derivative

Nofa Perkasa
Business Manager
PT Trijaya Pratama Futures

Universitas Bina Nusantara

Jakarta, 15 Juni 2017
Derivative Futures Trading
•Commodity
• FOREX
•Index
The Benefits of Futures Trading

• Leverage , you can trade with huge volume/ quantity

with small Margin .
Ex: 1 Lot Gold = 100 Tray Onz
1 Lot Crude Oil = 1000 Barrels
• Two Ways Opportunity
Open Buy – Close Sell
Open Sell – Close Buy
• High Liquidity
Two Type of Trader
Poor Trader
• Emotional Decision
• No Planning, Money management and Discipline
• No Clarity of Entry / Exit
• No Back Tested

Rich Trader
• No emotional Decision
• Pefect Planning and Money Management
• 100% Disciplinary Process
• Clear Rules on Entry / Exit
• 100% Back Tested Result
Poor Trader VS Rich Trader
3 Idiot Trading Philosophy
Trend Following Technique
• Father of Trend Following

• Started first managed fund

• 5-20 day moving average system

• 4-week rule
• Start trading his system at age 65 Richard Donchian

“ …not to forecast price,

but to get onboard important trends”
Mechanical Trading System
• Quantifiable – not subjective

• Objective rules to follow

• Everything is reflected in the price

• Trade the numbers

• Free from “noises” in the market

• Emotionally detached
 Background

Richard Dennis & William Eckhardt

Featured in “Market Wizards”

Turned USD 400 to USD 200M in 10 years

1983 Turtle Experiment

Nature vs Nuture

13 + 10 Turtle Traders trained

USD 175M profit over 4 years

80% compounded annually
 Curtis Faith James DiMaria Paul Rabar Salem Abraham

Jerry Parker Russell Sands Howard Seidler Liz Cheval

Mike Shannon Mark J.Walsh Tom Shanks Scot Henry

Mike Cavallo Bob Marcellus Stig Ostgaard Mike Carr

 The Turtle Trading System
A Complete Trading System

The Turtle Trading System is a Complete Trading System.

Its rules covered every aspect of trading and left no
decisions to the subjective whims to the trader.

It had every component of a Complete

Trading System!!
The Components of a Complete System

• Markets – What to buy or sell

• Position Sizing – How much to buy or sell

• Entries – When to buy or sell

• Stops – When to get out of a losing position

• Exits – When to get out of a winning position

 Turtle Trading System

System 1 – A shorter-term system

based on a 20-day breakout

System 2 – A longer-term system

based on a 55-day breakout
 10-bar LOW – Exit

20-bar HIGH – Go Long

USDCAD – System 1 - Long

10-bar LOW – Exit

20-bar HIGH – Go Long

 THE RULES – Short
System 1
For Short :
• Sell short when price moves below the lowest low of the
last 20 days.

• Cover short when price moves above the highest high of

the last 10 days.

SELL 20-day LOW

EXIT 10-day HIGH
 14
15
13 5
16 4
12 6
17
3
18 11 7
2
19 10 8
20 1
9

20-BAR LOW

20-bar breakout
20-bar LOW – go short

10-bar HIGH – Exit

GBPUSD – System 1 - Short

20-bar LOW – Go Short

10-bar HIGH – Exit

“ You have to have faith in 2 things.
God and your system.”

Jerry Parker
(Original Turtle)
Chesapeake Capital
 To Create Wealthy
Entrepreneurs

Turtle WorkShop
• Basic Fundamental and Technical Analysis
• Trend Following Technique
• Complete Turtle Trading Method
• Copy Trade