8 - Analyze - Hypothesis Testing Non Normal Data - P2

Analyze Phase
Hypothesis Testing Non Normal Data

Part 2
Hypothesis Testing Non Normal Data Part 2
Welcome to Analyze
“X” Sifting
Inferential Statistics
Intro to Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing ND P1
Hypothesis Testing ND P2
Hypothesis Testing NND P1

Tests for Proportions
Hypothesis Testing NND P2
Contingency Tables
Wrap Up & Action Items
LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 2 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap Attribute Data
Attribute Data
One Factor Two Factors

Two or More
One Sample Two Samples
Samples
One Sample Two Sample Chi Square Test

Proportion Proportion (Contingency Table)
MINITABTM: MINITABTM:
Stat - Basic Stats - 2 Proportions Stat - Tables - Chi-Square Test
If P-value < 0.05 the proportions If P-value < 0.05 at least one
are different proportion is different
Chi Square Test

(Contingency Table)
MINITABTM:
Stat - Tables - Chi-Square Test
If P-value < 0.05 the factors are not
independent
Sample Size and Types of Data
For Continuous Data:

– Capability Analysis – a minimum of 30 samples
– Hypothesis Testing – depends on the practical difference
to be detected and the inherent variation in the process
as well as the statistical confidence you wish to have.
For Attribute Data:

– Capability Analysis – a lot of samples
– Hypothesis Testing – a lot but depends on practical
difference to be detected as well as the statistical
confidence you wish to have.
MINITABTM can estimate sample sizes but

remember the smaller the difference that needs to
be detected the larger the sample size must be!
Proportion versus a Target
This test is used to determine if the process proportion (p)

equals some desired value, p0.
The hypotheses:
– H o: p = p 0
– H a: p p 0
The observed test statistic is calculated as follows:
(normal approximation) Z 
pˆ  p 
0
p 1  p n
obs
0 0
This is compared to Zcrit = Za/2
1. Shipping accuracy has a target of 99%; determine if the current

process is on target.
Stat > Power and Sample Size > 1 Proportion…
2. Hypotheses: Enter multiple values for alternative

– Ho: p = 0.99 values of p and MINITABTM will give
– Ha: p 0.99 the different sample sizes.
3. One sample proportion test

– Choose a = 5%
4. Sample size:
Power and Sample Size

Test for One Proportion
Testing proportion = 0.99 (versus not = 0.99)
Alpha = 0.05
Alternative Sample Target

Proportion Size Power Actual Power
0.95 140 0.9 0.900247
0.96 221 0.9 0.900389
0.97 428 0.9 0.900316
0.98 1402 0.9 0.900026
Our sample included 500 shipped items of which 480 were

accurate.
X 480
p̂    0.96
n 500
Stat > Basic Statistics > 1 Proportion…
Test and CI for One Proportion

Test of p = 0.99 vs p not = 0.99
Exact
Sample X N Sample p 95% CI P-value
1 480 500 0.960000 (0.938897, 0.975399) 0.000
5. Statistical Conclusion: Reject the null hypothesis because the hypothesized

Mean is not within the confidence interval.
5. Practical Conclusion: We are not performing to the accuracy target of 99%.

Exercise
Exercise objective: To practice solving problem

presented using the appropriate Hypothesis Test.
You are the shipping manager charged with improving

shipping accuracy. Your annual bonus depends on
your ability to prove shipping accuracy is better than
the target of 80%.
1. How many samples do you need to take if the

anticipated sample proportion is 82%?
2. Out of 2000 shipments only 1680 were accurate.

• Do you get your annual bonus?
• Was the sample size good enough?
Proportion vs Target Example: Solution
First we must determine the proper sample size to

achieve our target of 80%.
Stat > Power and Sample Size > 1 Proportion…
Proportion versus Target Example: Solution
Now let’s calculate if we

receive our bonus…
Out of the 2000 shipments

?
1680 were accurate. Was
the sample size sufficient?
X 1680
p̂    0.84
n 2000
Comparing Two Proportions
This test is used to determine if the process defect rate (or

proportion, p) of one sample differs by a certain amount, D, from that
of another sample (e.g., before and after your improvement actions)
The hypotheses:
H0: p1 - p2 = D
Ha: p1 – p2 = D
The test statistic is calculated as follows:
p̂1  p̂ 2  D
Zobs 
p̂1 1  p̂1  n1  p̂ 2 1  p̂ 2  n 2
This is compared to Zcritical = Za/2
Catch some Z’s!
Sample Size and Two Proportions
Take a few moments to practice calculating the minimum sample size

required to detect a difference between two proportions using a power
of 0.90.
Enter the expected proportion for proportion 2 (null hypothesis).
For a more conservative estimate when the null hypothesis is close to

100 use smaller proportion for p1. When the null hypothesis is close
to 0, use the larger proportion for p1.
a  p1 p2 n
5% .01 0.79 0.8 ___________
5% .01 0.81 0.8 ___________
5% .02 0.08 0.1 ___________
5% .02 0.12 0.1 ___________
5% .01 0.47 0.5 ___________
5% .01 0.53 0.5 ___________
1. Shipping accuracy must improve from a historical baseline of 85%

towards a target of 95%. Determine if the process improvements made
have increased the accuracy.
Stat>Power and Sample Size> 2 Proportions…
2. Hypotheses:
– Ho: p1 – p2 = 0.0
– Ha: p1 – p2 0.0
3. Two sample proportion test
– Choose a = 5%
4. Sample size ~
Power and Sample Size

Test for Two Proportions
Testing proportion 1 = proportion 2 (versus not =)
Calculating power for proportion 2 = 0.95
Alpha = 0.05
Sample Target
Proportion 1 Size Power Actual Power
0.85 188 0.9 0.901 451
The sample size is for each group.
The following data were taken:
Total Samples Accurate

Before Improvement 600 510
After Improvement 225 212
Calculate proportions:
X1 510
Before Improvement: 600 samples, 510 accurate p̂1    0.85
n1 600
X 2 212
After Improvement: 225 samples, 212 accurate p̂ 2    0.942
n 2 225
Stat>Basic Statistics>2 Proportions…

5. Statistical Conclusion: Reject
the null
6. Practical Conclusion: You

have achieved a significant
difference in accuracy.
Test and CI for Two Proportions

Sample X N Sample p
1 510 600 0.850000
2 212 225 0.942222
Difference = p (1) - p (2)

Estimate for difference: -0.0922222
95% CI for difference: (-0.134005, -0.0504399)
Test for difference = 0 (vs not = 0): Z = -4.33 P-Value = 0.000
Exercise
Exercise objective: To practice solving a problem

Boris and Igor tend to make a lot of mistakes writing

requisitions.
# Req's # Wrong
Boris 356 47
Igor 571 99
1. Who is worse?
2. Is the sample size large enough?
2 Proportion vs Target Example: Solution
First we need to calculate our estimated

p1 and p2 for Boris and Igor.
X1 47
Boris p̂1    0.132
n1 356
X 2 99
Igor p̂ 2    0.173
n 2 571
2 Proportion vs Target Example: Solution
Now let’s see what the minimum sample size should be…
Stat > Power and Sample Size > 2 Proportions
Contingency Tables
Contingency Tables are used to simultaneously compare more

than two sample proportions with each other.
It is called a Contingency Table because we are testing if the

proportion is contingent upon, or dependent upon, the factor
used to subgroup the data.
This test generally works the best with five or more observations
in each cell. Observations can be pooled by combining cells.
Some examples for use include:

– Return proportion by product line
– Claim proportion by customer
– Defect proportion by manufacturing line
That? ..oh, that’s my

contingency table!
Contingency Tables
The null hypothesis is that the population proportions of each

group are the same.
– Ho: p1 = p2 = p3 = … = pn
– Ha: at least one p is different
Statisticians have shown the following statistic forms a chi-

square distribution when H0 is true:

observed  expected 
2
expected
Where “observed” is the sample frequency, “expected” is the
calculated frequency based on the null hypothesis and the
summation is over all cells in the table.
Test Statistic Calculations
Chi-square Test
r c (O ij  E ij ) 2
χ  
2 Where:
o
i 1 j1 E ij O = the observed value
(from sample data)
E = the expected value
(Frow * Fcol )
E ij  r = number of rows
Ftotal c = number of columns
Frow = total frequency for that row
χ 2
critical χ 2
α, ν Fcol = total frequency for that column
Ftotal = total frequency for the table
From the Chi-Square Table
n = degrees of freedom [(r-1)(c-1)]
Contingency Table Example
1. Larry, Curley and Moe are order entry operators and you
suspect one of them has a lower defect rate than the others.
2. Ho: pMoe = pLarry = pCurley
Ha: at least one p is different
3. Use Contingency Table since there are 3 proportions.
4. Sample Size: To ensure a minimum of 5 occurrences were
detected the test was run for one day.
Moe Larry Curley

Defective 5 8 20
OK 20 30 25
Can’t you clowns get the

entries correct?!
The sample data are the “observed” frequencies. To calculate

the “expected” frequencies, first add the rows and columns:
Moe Larry Curley Total

Defective 5 8 20 33
OK 20 30 25 75
Total 25 38 45 108
Then calculate the overall proportion for each row:

Defective 5 8 20 33 0.306
OK 20 30 25 75 0.694 33/108 = 0.306
Total 25 38 45 108
Now use these proportions to calculate the expected

frequencies in each cell:
0.306 * 45 = 13.8

Defective 5 8 20 33 0.306
OK 20 30 25 75 0.694
Total 25 38 45 108
0.694 * 38 = 26.4
Next calculate the 2 value for each cell in the table:
observed - expected 2
expected
Moe Larry Curley 20  13.82  2.841

Defective 0.912 1.123 2.841
OK 0.401 0.494 1.250 13.8
Finally add these numbers to get the observed chi-square:
2  0.912 1.123 2.841

χ obs
0.401 0.494 1.250
2  7.02
χ obs
A summary of the table:
Moe Larry Curley

Observed 5 8 20
Expected 7.6 11.6 13.8
Defective 2 0.912 1.123 2.841
Observed 20 30 25
Expected 17.4 26.4 31.3 2  7.02
χ obs
OK 2 0.401 0.494 1.250
Critical Value ~
• Like any other Hypothesis Test compare the observed statistic
with the critical statistic. We decide a = 0.05 so what else do we
need to know?
• For a chi-square distribution we need to specify n in a
Contingency Table:
n = (r - 1)(c - 1), where
r = # of rows
c = # of columns
• In our example we have 2 rows and 3 columns so n = 2
• What is the critical chi-square? For a Contingency Table all the
risk is in the right hand tail (i.e. a one-tail test); look it up in
MINITABTM using Calc>Probability Distributions>Chisquare…
2  5.99
χ crit
Graphical Summary:
Since the observed chi-square exceeds the critical chi-square
we reject the null hypothesis that the defect rate is independent
of which person enters the orders.
Chi-square probability density function for n = 2
0.5
0.4
0.3
Accept Reject
f
0.2 obs
2  7.02
0.1
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
chi-square crit  5.99
2
Using MINITABTM ~
• Of course MINITABTM eliminates the tedium of crunching these

numbers. Type the order entry data from the Contingency
Table Example into MINITABTM as shown:
• Notice the row labels are not necessary and row and column
totals are not used just the observed counts for each cell.
Stat>Tables>Chi-Square Test (2 way table in

worksheet)
Chi-Square Test: Moe, Larry, Curley
Expected counts are printed below observed counts

Chi-Square contributions are printed below expected
counts

1 5 8 20 33
7.64 11.61 13.75
0.912 1.123 2.841
2 20 30 25 75
17.36 26.39 31.25
0.401 0.494 1.250
Total 25 38 45 108
Chi-Sq = 7.021, DF = 2, P-Value = 0.030
5. Statistical Conclusion: Reject the null hypothesis.
6. Practical Conclusion: The defect rate for one of these stooges is different. In other
words, defect rate is contingent upon the stooge.
Exercise
Exercise objective: To practice solving problem

• You are the quotations manager and your team thinks the
reason you do not get a contract depends on its complexity.
• You determine a way to measure complexity and classify
lost contracts as follows:
Low Med High

Price 8 10 12
Lead Time 10 11 9
Technology 5 9 16
1. Write the null and alternative hypothesis.

2. Does complexity have an effect?
Contingency Table Example: Solution
First we need to create a table in

MINITABTM
Secondly, in MINITABTM perform

a Chi-Square Test
Stat>Tables>Chi-Square Test
Contingency Table Example: Solution
Are the factors independent of each other?
Overview
Contingency Tables are another form of Hypothesis Testing.

They are used to test for association (or dependency) between two
classifications.
The null hypothesis is that the classifications are independent.
A Chi-square Test is used for frequency (count) type data.
If the data is converted to a rate (over time) then a continuous type
test would be possible. However, determining the period of time that
the rate is based on can be controversial. We do not want to just
pick a convenient interval; there needs to be some rationale behind
the decision. Many times we see rates based on a day because that
is the easiest way to collect data. However a more appropriate way
would be to look at the rate distribution per hour.
Per hour? Per day? Per month?
Summary
At this point you should be able to:
• Calculate and explain test for proportions
• Calculate and explain Contingency Tests
• Explain and execute a Chi-squared Test
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The International Association for Six Sigma Certification (IASSC) is a Professional

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Green Belt Exam, is a 3 hour 100 question
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Learn about IASSC Certifications and Exam options at…

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LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC

8 - Analyze - Hypothesis Testing Non Normal Data - P2

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Analyze Phase

Hypothesis Testing Non Normal Data

Intro to Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis Testing NND P1

One Factor Two Factors

One Sample Two Sample Chi Square Test

Chi Square Test

For Continuous Data:

For Attribute Data:

MINITABTM can estimate sample sizes but

This test is used to determine if the process proportion (p)

The observed test statistic is calculated as follows:

This is compared to Zcrit = Za/2

1. Shipping accuracy has a target of 99%; determine if the current

2. Hypotheses: Enter multiple values for alternative

3. One sample proportion test

Power and Sample Size

Alternative Sample Target

Our sample included 500 shipped items of which 480 were

Stat > Basic Statistics > 1 Proportion…

Test and CI for One Proportion

5. Statistical Conclusion: Reject the null hypothesis because the hypothesized

5. Practical Conclusion: We are not performing to the accuracy target of 99%.

Exercise objective: To practice solving problem

You are the shipping manager charged with improving

1. How many samples do you need to take if the

2. Out of 2000 shipments only 1680 were accurate.

First we must determine the proper sample size to

Now let’s calculate if we

Out of the 2000 shipments

This test is used to determine if the process defect rate (or

The test statistic is calculated as follows:

This is compared to Zcritical = Za/2

Catch some Z’s!

Take a few moments to practice calculating the minimum sample size

Enter the expected proportion for proportion 2 (null hypothesis).

For a more conservative estimate when the null hypothesis is close to

1. Shipping accuracy must improve from a historical baseline of 85%

Power and Sample Size

The following data were taken:

Total Samples Accurate

Stat>Basic Statistics>2 Proportions…

6. Practical Conclusion: You

Test and CI for Two Proportions

Difference = p (1) - p (2)

Exercise objective: To practice solving a problem

Boris and Igor tend to make a lot of mistakes writing

First we need to calculate our estimated

Contingency Tables are used to simultaneously compare more

It is called a Contingency Table because we are testing if the

Some examples for use include:

That? ..oh, that’s my

The null hypothesis is that the population proportions of each

Statisticians have shown the following statistic forms a chi-

Moe Larry Curley

Can’t you clowns get the

The sample data are the “observed” frequencies. To calculate

Moe Larry Curley Total

Then calculate the overall proportion for each row:

Moe Larry Curley Total

Now use these proportions to calculate the expected

Moe Larry Curley Total