Examining relationship between

NDVI (Normally Differentiated Vegetation

Index)
and
production/procurement
using freely available Remote Sensing Data
Motivation I
 NDVI (Normally Differentiated Vegetation Index) has been used
extensively to measure vegetation cover characteristics, crop
assessment studies, monitor health of crops over large regions,
monitor vegetation change and estimate biomass. Time series
analysis of NDVI allows establishment of a baseline for normal
vegetation productivity for a region.
 Moreover, it has been used in regression models to predict crop
harvests with high degree of accuracy.
 Crop residues/green fodder is universally used as the primary bulk
feed either in-situ or ex-situ. Crop residues are stored typically for 6
months to one year, after the harvests.
 production is dependant upon the availability of feed.
 procurement trend would follow that of production if all external
conditions remain same including competition and payment to
farmers.
 Thus, procurement or production may be linked or correlated with
NDVI with a lag of 6 months
Motivation II
 Normally remote sensing data is expensive and its analysis requires
expert manpower and costly software.
 However, GLAM (Global Agricultural Monitoring project) of USDA
has been providing processed NDVI data for all parts of India at a
comparatively high level resolution of 250 sq.meters. This is
provided through internet free of cost and updated every fortnight.
 Village boundary information can be now overlaid with NDVI data
(downloaded from USDA) to arrive at the composite NDVI for any
specific village for every fortnight.
 Thus, it is possible to correlate this data with monthly time series
milk procurement data for the villages. Thereafter, suitable models
can be developed for predicting short term changes in
production/procurement.
Experimental work with 2 villages (Waghod & Morgaon ) in
Jalgaon based upon procurement data between Apr-Nov’05 &
Apr-Nov’06

Downloaded NDVI data for India

and specific area in Jalgaon district

Source: Global Agricultural Monitoring Project, USDA

Example: NDVI information during the fortnight Sep 13 –Sep28, 2004 downloaded
from USDA website and overlaid on village boundary information of Jalgaon District.
The area under study highlighted in box showing the 2 villages.
 Combined monthwise procurement in 2005-06 and 2006-
07 in the 2 villages (In Kgpd)

PROC0506 PROC0607
APR 680 617
MAY 501 456
JUN 446 318
JUL 485 295
AUG 483 250
SEP 575 329
OCT 774 394
NOV 895 568
NDVI between harvest to next harvest 2004-05, 2005-06 & 2006-07
in the specific area along with the short-term mean of 5 years

NDVI is at its peak value just before harvesting. NDVI has been found to have very strong correlation
with biomass availability (Kg/sq.m). We may see that 2004-05 had been a good crop year in comparison
to 2005-06.

NDVI0405 NDVI0506 NDVI0607

SEP 88 87 82
OCT 85 83 82
NOV 84 80 81
DEC 83 79 81
JAN 83 78 80
FEB 83 76 79
MAR 75 75 72
Correlating lean-flush monthly NDVI values with procurement with a
lag of 6 months beginning with harvesting month i.e. NDVI values
between Sep-Feb of the previous year vs. procurement in Apr-Sep in
current year
PROC0506 PROC0607
APR 680 617
We observe a high degree of correlation in both
MAY 501 456 the years.
JUN 446 318
JUL 485 295 This may be explained by the fact that in 2004-05
AUG 483 250 the general harvest in Sep’04 was much better as
SEP 575 329 evidenced by high NDVI values, which reflected
OCT 774 394
in higher production/procurement in the
NOV 895 568
NDVI0405 NDVI0506
forthcoming lean in Apr’05.
SEP 88 87
OCT 85 83 In Sep’05 the harvest seems to be poorer with
NOV 84 80 lower NDVI values and corresponding drop in
DEC 83 79 production/procurement in coming lean season
JAN 83 78 beginning Apr’06 onwards.
FEB 83 76
MAR 75 75

CORRELATION 0.71 0.90