Preventive Diplomacy What is Preventive Diplomacy? • The term “preventive diplomacy” was proposed by Dag Hammarskjöld, UN Secretary-General from 1953 to 1961, over half a century ago and, since then, the concept has continued to evolve in response to new challenges. • In the United Nations context, preventive diplomacy is regarded as an integral part of broader conflict-prevention efforts and refers particularly to early diplomatic actions aimed at preventing new disputes and the escalation of existing tensions into violence, as well as limiting the spread of ongoing conflicts. Cont.. • Preventive Diplomacy may also be defined as the diplomatic course of actions aimed at stopping armed conflict before they escalate into widespread violence, through use of various diplomatic tactics. Factors Promoting Preventive Diplomacy • A number of factors an be found that played a role in promoting preventive diplomacy, specially in the later half of the 20th century. • The concept of mass destruction as well as collateral damage after WWII, mainly due to development of non-conventional weapons has played an important role in this regard. During the most tense years of cold war, both the super powers avoided a direct military confrontation to a larger extent since both had nuclear and missile technologies. Cuban Missile Crisis is a good example of preventive diplomacy during cold war when the world was at the brink of a nuclear war, however, it were the preventive diplomatic efforts that worked. Cont.. • Another important factor has been the rise of debates like individualism vs nation/state sovereignty and human rights. Mostly having support from Liberals, such debates promoted awareness about securing the individual rights and liberties that potentially could be harmed due to conflicts between states. Stressing on the need to prevent the crisis at earliest possible stages to avoid human causalities and violation of human rights specially during crisis and war time, proponents of human rights thus supported the trend of preventive diplomacy. Cont.. • Another important factor, again having Liberal basis, has been the integrated global and regional economic systems. The increased economic interdependence increased the scope and range of potential harms that crisis, conflicts and wars between two or more states could bring to the rest, hence, not only making states more keen to get over the disputes at initial stages but also increased the room for external interference and intervention, by other states as well as by regional and international institutions. Levels of Preventive Diplomatic Actions • Preventive diplomacy might be practiced at the bilateral level, involving the immediate parties to a crisis/conflict having an urge to prevent the conflict from getting intensified to an uncontrollable level. • It might be multilateral, involving some neutral/other states as well as regional and international institutions working in collaboration to prevent the conflicts from escalating into more violent ones. Bilateral Preventive Diplomacy • States, mostly through Confidence Building Measures try to normalize the bilateral terms, first aimed at bringing the terms to pre-war/pre- conflict state and then making further possible improvements. • Mostly commonly practiced CBMs might be categorized into following groups. Political (ranging from statements by political leaders stressing the need to promote peace to direct/indirect communication channels between heads of states, e.g.Hotlines, visits etc Cont.. Military (ranging from declaration of ceasefire, avoiding skirmishes in sensitive areas to meetings between border security forces and direct communication lines between military leadership. Nuclear and non- conventional CBMs have also become very important in this regard, including informing each other in advance before conducting nuclear tests, test ban or moratorium, informing each other in case of accidental use, theft etc, arms control and arms reduction agreements/treaties etc Cont.. Economic CMBs, ranging from conclusion of MoUs (Memorandum of Understanding) to promote bilateral trade to joint ventures, visits by industrialists, communication between chambers of commerce to economic leverages offered to each other up to the level of granting the status of Most Favored Nation etc Cultural CBMs, including interaction between societies, civil citizens, media groups, exchange of students, scientists, doctors, artists etc. Multilateral Preventive Diplomacy • Multilateral Preventive Diplomacy is generally practiced at to levels: Global and Regional Preventive diplomacy has been an enduring idea at the United Nations for many decades. Since Dag Hammarskjöld first articulated the concept over half a century ago, it has continued to evolve in response to new challenges. An integral part of broader conflict prevention efforts, preventive diplomacy refers specifically to diplomatic action taken, at the earliest possible stage, “to prevent disputes from arising between parties, to prevent existing disputes from escalating into conflicts and to limit the spread of the latter when they occur”. Preventive diplomacy remains highly relevant along the entire conflict spectrum. Cont.. U.N. has been using various tools/instruments for preventive diplomacy, e.g. Mediation Support Unit, Peace making/keeping/building Missions etc. A number of cases can be found where U.N. intervened to prevent the conflict from further intensification. These include South Sudan, Sierra Leone, Iraq, Kenya, Congo etc. Cont.. At regional level, in addition to regional powers and other states, regional organizations have been playing an important role to minimize the tensions between member states through preventive diplomatic actions. An important example is E.U. that has been quite successful in this regard. Similarly, various other regional organizations have become active over the years, e.g., African Union replaced it’s policy of ‘non-interference’ to that of ‘non-indifference’ to enhance it’s role in regional disputes/conflicts. Tools and Mechanisms for Preventive Diplomacy • Early Warning Systems • Mechanisms for rapid response • Establishment of dedicated preventive structures at bilateral, regional and international level • Use of special envoys • Mediation units • Fact-finding commissions • Peacemaking commissions • Resident political missions Success/Failure of Preventive Diplomacy • There are a number of factors that determine the success/failure of preventive diplomatic efforts in any particular case. Some major factors are Definition of the ‘threshold’ or ‘red-line’ (assessing the sensitivity of the matter and deciding when to start the efforts for peace and normalization) Cont.. Communication and partnership (continuous communication between all the stakeholders and parties to the conflict, agreement and collaboration for reducing tensions) Sustainability (ensuring not only continuity of the ongoing diplomatic process for peace but taking it to next levels) Resourcing (channelizing all the available resources, materials, skills, channels and forums to prevent the escalation)