Autumn Meeting on The Korean Institute of Gas 2019

Oct. 24~25 2019, Jeju, Korea

한계상태함수를 활용한 가스 배관의 파손확률 평가

Failure Probability Assessment on the Natural Gas Pipeline
using Limit State Function

한국가스공사 가스연구원
백 종 현, 장윤찬․김익중․
김철만․김영표․김우식

2019. 10. 24
Contents

1. KOGAS Business Overview

2. Introduction
3. Failure Probability Assessment:
- Corrosion Defect
4. Summary
 KOGAS’ LNG Import & Sales
 11 Long term contracts in 7 countries over the world

카타르
Qatar (3)
(4)
러시아 사할린(1)
Sakhalin(1) LNG Sale
4.92mn tons/yr (unit : thousand tons)
1.5mn tons/yr 36,219
2.1mn tons/yr
USA(1) 32,773
2.0mn tons/yr 31,456 32,162
2.8mn tons/yr

Malaysia(1)
2mn tons/yr

인도네시아(3)
Indonesia(1)
1mn tons/yr
오만(1)
Oman(1) 2015 2016 2017 2018
4mn tons/yr
호주(4)
Australia(1)
0.5mn tons/yr
3.5mn
카타르
Others (2)
(4)
4.92mn tons/yr
3.6mn tons/yr
2.0mn tons/yr
KOGAS’ LNG Facilities
LNG Terminals
LNG Tank: 72, 11.47million kiloliters
Pyeongtaek: 23 Tanks
3.36 million kiloliter, Start-up: 1986.11
Incheon: 20 Tanks
2.88 million kiloliter, Start-up: 1996.10
Tongyoung: 17 Tanks
2.62 million kiloliter, Start-up: 2002.9
Samcheck: 12 Tanks
2.61 million kiloliter, Start-up: 2014.7

< Jeju Terminal >

KOGAS’ Pipeline Network
Pipeline network
Trunk line: 4,857 km (5,305 km by 2,023)
- Pipeline: API X65, API X70 , Pressure: 7MPa

Supply Control Stations: 404 stations

- Governor station: 144 stations
- Valve station: 142 stations
- Block Valve: 118 stations
Consideration factors for Onshore Pipeline
Wall Internal
Thickness Welding
Pressure

3rd party.
Mechanical Corrosion Dent/
damage Gouge

External Buried Soil

force depth movement
 Study Purpose

Corrosion Failure
defect
Onshore Probability
Pipe

 The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of corrosion defects on
the failure probability of the onshore pipeline
Pipeline Design and Assessment Approaches in ISO 16708

Deterministic
Approach

QRA SRA
(Quantitative (Structural
Risk Reliability
Assessment) Assessment)

8
*Source: ISO 16708 Reliability-based limit state methods
What is Reliability?

 Probability that a certain length of pipeline will satisfy

requirements of limit states for a certain period of time.

Reliability = 1 - Failure Probability

 Example
 Pprobability of corrosion leak = 10-4 (1 in 10,000) per km-year
 Corrosion reliability = 1 – 10-4 = (9,999 in 10,000) per km-year
Target Failure Probability
 ISO 16708 Reliability-Based Limit State Methods
 CSA Z662 Oil and Gas Pipeline Systems
 DNV OS F101 Submarine Pipeline Systems
 DNV-RP-F101 Corroded Pipelines

 ULS, LLS, SLS Target Failure Probability : 10-1 ~ 10-8

Ultimate Limit State (ULS)

 Loss of containment
 Significant threat to safety and environment
 Burst and Rupture
Leakage Limit State (LLS) : Small leaks
 Loss of containment
 Limited threat to safety and environment
 Small leaks (pinhole)
Serviceability Limit State (SLS)
 Loss of ability to meet service requirement
 No threat to safety and environment
 Ovality, denting or local buckling
 Limit State Function
The limit state function may be defined in terms of any parameter or set of
parameters that describes the Load effect, L, and corresponding Resistance, R.
It has the following basic format:

 Limit State Function = Resistance – Load

= Pipe strength – Hoop Stress by Internal Pressure

Limit State Function = Resistance > Load: Safe

= Pipe strength > Hoop Stress : Safe

Limit State Function = Resistance ≤ Load: Fail or Unsafe

= Pipe strength ≤ Hoop Stress : Fail or Unsafe

 Resistance: Material(Pipe) Strength

 Load: Internal Pressure, External Load(Soil, Vehicle ..)
Target Failure Probability: ISO 16708

Safety Class 4
(KOGAS Standard Grade “Ga”)

Pf,target is the maximum acceptable failure probability in failures/ km.year

P is the internal pressure in bars
D is the outside pipe diameter in meters.
 Target Failure Probability, Pf, target : ISO 16708

 Pipe: API X65

 Thickness: 17.5 mm
 OD: 30”(762mm)
Grade  P=70, 75, 80 bar
“Ga”
Safety Class 4 (KOGAS Grade “Ga”)
Safe
P(bar) OD(m) T.F.P*
70.0 0.762 1.61E-07
75.0 0.762 1.51E-07
80.0 0.762 1.41E-07
*T.F.P: Target Failure Probability

 The target failure probability (Pf, target) of ISO 16708 is calculated as a function of
pipe outer diameter and operation pressure.
 ISO 16708 sets the target failure probability (Pf, target) for each pipeline according
to the regional class. If the target failure probability (Pf, target) is greater than the
pipe failure probability (Pf ), it is classified as safe. 13
 Target Failure Probability : CSA Z662

Location Class 1

Location Class 2

Location Class 3

Location Class 4
(KOGAS Standard Grade “Ga”)

Reliability = 1- Failure probability

ρ : Population density (People per hectare(10,000m2))
P : Operation pressure (MPa)
D : Pipeline outside diameter (mm)
14
 Target Failure Probability(Pf ) with variation of internal
pressure & outer diameter by using CSA Z662 standard
인구 인구
24in(610mm) 26in(660mm) 30in(762mm)
구분 밀도 밀도
면적
인구(명)
(㎢)
시·도별 P=6.86MPa P=7.85MPa P=6.86MPa P=7.85MPa P=6.86MPa P=7.85MPa
명/km2 명/ha
(70kg/cm2) (80kg/cm2) (70kg/cm2) (80kg/cm2) (70kg/cm2) (80kg/cm2)

계 100,266.89 50,948,272 508 6 4.51E-06 3.64E-06 3.09E-06 2.50E-06 1.55E-06 1.25E-06

특별시 서울 605.21 10,195,318 16,846 169 2.16E-08 1.75E-08 1.48E-08 1.20E-08 7.43E-09 6.00E-09
부산 769.67 3,538,484 4,597 46 1.73E-07 1.40E-07 1.19E-07 9.59E-08 5.96E-08 4.81E-08
대구 883.68 2,505,644 2,835 29 3.63E-07 2.93E-07 2.48E-07 2.01E-07 1.25E-07 1.01E-07
광 인천 1,040.82 2,843,981 2,732 28 3.84E-07 3.10E-07 2.63E-07 2.12E-07 1.32E-07 1.06E-07
역
시 광주 501.18 1,469,216 2,932 30 3.43E-07 2.77E-07 2.35E-07 1.90E-07 1.18E-07 9.53E-08
대전 540.25 1,524,583 2,822 29 3.63E-07 2.93E-07 2.48E-07 2.01E-07 1.25E-07 1.01E-07
울산 1,060.19 1,147,256 1,082 11 1.71E-06 1.38E-06 1.17E-06 9.46E-07 5.88E-07 4.75E-07
경기 10,170.91 12,093,299 1,189 12 1.49E-06 1.20E-06 1.02E-06 8.23E-07 5.11E-07 4.13E-07
강원 16,873.50 1,538,630 91 1 7.93E-05 6.40E-05 5.43E-05 4.39E-05 2.73E-05 2.20E-05
충북 7,406.17 1,565,628 211 3 1.37E-05 1.10E-05 9.37E-06 7.57E-06 4.70E-06 3.80E-06
충남 8,204.00 2,028,777 247 3 1.37E-05 1.10E-05 9.37E-06 7.57E-06 4.70E-06 3.80E-06
도
전북 8,066.77 1,873,341 232 3 1.37E-05 1.10E-05 9.37E-06 7.57E-06 4.70E-06 3.80E-06
전남 12,266.87 1,909,618 156 2 2.62E-05 2.11E-05 1.79E-05 1.45E-05 8.99E-06 7.26E-06
경북 19,028.74 2,698,353 142 2 2.62E-05 2.11E-05 1.79E-05 1.45E-05 8.99E-06 7.26E-06
경남 10,534.80 3,319,314 315 4 8.63E-06 6.97E-06 5.91E-06 4.77E-06 2.97E-06 2.40E-06

특별 제주 1849.29 583713 316 4 8.63E-06 6.97E-06 5.91E-06 4.77E-06 2.97E-06 2.40E-06

자치도, 시
세종 464.84 113117 243 3 1.37E-05 1.10E-05 9.37E-06 7.57E-06 4.70E-06 3.80E-06

Korean Population in 2013 15

 Target Failure Probability(Pf ) of the Pipe without Defect

 ISO Target Failure Probability,(Pf, target) in ISO 16708: OD,

Operation pressure
 Target Failure Probability,(Pf, target) in CSA Z66: OD, Operation
pressure, Population density
 Structural Reliability Assessment: Failure Probability,(Pf),
calculation on the pipe under the operation pressure
 In Seoul, the operation pressure of 8MPa is evaluated as fail
because the failure pressure (Pf) calculated by COMREL is larger
than the target failure probability (Pf, target). Pf > P f, target
Safe
* Component Reliability Assessment S/W : Probability and Statistics-based Structural Integrity Assessment Program
16
Remaining Strength Assessment of Part Wall Defects
L

A
A0

 1 A  Where:
  A0   = Failure stress
   = Flow stress
 1  A
M1 
A = Area of metal loss
 A0  A0 = Original Area
M = Folias Bulging Factor
f(L,D,t)

17
Failure Probability(Pf ) of the Pipe with Corrosion Defect

Pburst – Pop>0 = Safe, Pburst – Pop < 0 = Failure

Pburst : Failure Pressure, Pop: Operation Pressure(7MPa)

 Battelle/PRCI PCORRC Model*

2t  d   L  
Pf   ult 1 
Pburst 1  exp   0.157  
D  t   Rt  d   
 

 ASME Modified B31G Model

 1  0.85d t  
PburstPf 
2t
 yield  68.95 1 
D 1  0.85d t M 
L 2 L 4
M  1  0.6275( )  0.003375( ) for L2 / Dt  50
Dt Dt
L2
M  0.032  3.3 for L2 / Dt  50
Dt
18
 Limit State Function for Corroded Pipe

 g(x) = R(resistance) - L(load)

 Limit State Function for Corrosion defect: ASME B31G etc.

 Limit State Function for Corrosion defect: PCORRC,

Parameters Mean Std. Distribution

Yield Strength 515.32MPa 31.88 Normal
Tensile Strength 594.08MPa 25.45 Normal
Diameter, D 762.47mm 0.66 Normal
Thickness, t 17.61mm 0.15 Normal
90 90 900 100
SMYS=448MPa UTS-Min.=530MPa WTNominal=17.5mm
80 80 800
YS-Average=515.4MPa UTS-Average=594.1MPa WTAverage=17.63mm
No. of Observations

No. of Observations

WTmin.~max.=17.20~18.30mm
No. of Observations

70 Sx=31.9 70 Sx=25.4 700 ODNominal=762.0mm 80

No. of Observations
n=687 n=687 ODAverage=762.6mm n=231
60 60 600 ODmin.~max.=759.0~766.0mm
n=1281 60
50 50 500

40 40 400
40
30 30 300

20 20 200
20
10 10 100

0 0 0 0
400 440 480 520 560 600 640 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4
Yield Strength(MPa) Yield Strength(MPa) Outside Diameter(mm) Wall Thickness(mm)

YS, UTS Parameters

COMREL S/W: Input Parameters
Failure Probability(Pf ) of the Pipe with Corrosion Defect
- Battelle/PCORRC -
Target Failure Probability at 7MPa Failure Probability (Pf) in COMREL S/W
Defect Defect length (mm)
Pf,target Depth
200mm 300mm 600mm 900mm
(mm)
CSA Z662
1 1.70E-13 3.10E-13 9.18E-13 1.52E-12
ISO 16708 서울 경남 1.5 4.41E-13 1.09E-12 5.49E-12 1.13E-11
(169명/ha) (4명/ha) 2 1.20E-12 4.04E-12 3.38E-11 8.53E-11
1.61E-07 7.20E-9 2.87E-6 2.5 3.42E-12 1.58E-11 2.12E-10 6.35E-10 Safe
3 1.04E-11 6.50E-11 1.33E-09 4.58E-09
 Pipe: API X65, OD: 30”(762 mm) 3.5 3.35E-11 2.82E-10 8.30E-09 3.13E-08
4 1.16E-10 1.28E-09 4.97E-08 1.98E-07
 Thickness: 17.5 mm, Pressure: 7 MPa 4.5 4.37E-10 6.06E-09 2.80E-07 1.13E-06
5 1.78E-09 2.92E-08 1.46E-06 5.80E-06
5.5 7.79E-09 1.40E-07 6.83E-06 2.61E-05
6 3.62E-08 6.49E-07 2.86E-05 1.03E-04
Fail
6.5 1.72E-07 2.85E-06 1.07E-04 3.56E-04
7 8.05E-07 1.15E-05 3.52E-04 1.08E-03
7.5 3.56E-06 4.27E-05 1.03E-03 2.91E-03
8 1.46E-05 1.43E-04 2.70E-03 6.99E-03
8.5 5.39E-05 4.30E-04 6.35E-03 1.51E-02
9 1.79E-04 1.17E-03 1.35E-02 2.96E-02
9.5 5.35E-04 2.88E-03 2.64E-02 5.33E-02
10 1.43E-03 6.44E-03 4.72E-02 8.84E-02

 COMREL failure probability (Pf) is greater than the target failure probability (Pf, target),
it is evaluated as a failure. Pf > P f, target
Failure Probability(Pf ) of the Pipe with Corrosion Defect
- ASME Modified B31G Model -

Target Failure Probability at 7MPa Failure Probability (Pf) in COMREL S/W

Pf,target Defect Defect length (mm)
Depth
CSA Z662 (mm) 200mm 300mm 600mm 900mm
ISO 16708 서울 경남 1 7.24E-14 1.17E-13 1.66E-13 1.73E-13
(169명/ha) (4명/ha) 1.5 4.18E-13 8.27E-13 1.37E-12 1.46E-12
2 2.45E-12 5.81E-12 1.10E-11 1.19E-11
1.61E-07 7.20E-9 2.87E-6 2.5 1.44E-11 3.99E-11 8.42E-11 9.29E-11
3 8.46E-11 2.65E-10 6.10E-10 6.83E-10
Safe
 Pipe: API X65, OD: 30”(762 mm) 3.5 4.86E-10 1.67E-09 4.10E-09 4.66E-09
4 2.70E-09 9.90E-09 2.54E-08 2.91E-08
 Thickness: 17.5 mm, Pressure: 7 MPa 4.5 1.43E-08 5.44E-08 1.42E-07 1.64E-07
5 7.14E-08 2.74E-07 7.19E-07 8.33E-07
5.5 3.30E-07 1.25E-06 3.25E-06 3.77E-06
6 1.40E-06 5.16E-06 1.31E-05 1.52E-05
6.5 5.45E-06 1.92E-05 4.70E-05 5.44E-05 Fail
7 1.92E-05 6.41E-05 1.51E-04 1.74E-04
7.5 6.18E-05 1.94E-04 4.37E-04 5.02E-04
8 1.81E-04 5.31E-04 0.00114 0.0013
8.5 4.82E-04 0.00132 0.00271 0.00307
9 0.00118 0.00302 0.0059 0.00662
9.5 0.00265 0.00635 0.0118 0.0132
10 0.00552 0.0124 0.0219 0.0242
 COMREL failure probability (Pf) is greater than the target failure probability (Pf, target),
it is evaluated as a failure. Pf > P f, target 22
 Failure Probability(Pf ) & Burst Pressure
of the Pipe with Corrosion Defect
Target Failure Probability at 7MPa Failure Probability (Pf) in COMREL S/W
Battelle/PRCI ASME B31G
Pf,target Defect (defect length:200mm) (defect length:200mm)
Depth Burst Burst
Failure Failure
CSA Z662 (mm) Pressure Pressure
Probability Probability
ISO (MPa) (MPa)
16708 서울 경남 1 1.70E-13 23.89 7.24E-14 23.26
(169명/ha) (4명/ha) 1.5 4.41E-13 23.65 4.18E-13 23.01
2 1.20E-12 23.41 2.45E-12 22.75
1.61E-07 7.20E-9 2.87E-6 2.5 3.42E-12 23.16 1.44E-11 22.48
3 1.04E-11 22.91 8.46E-11 22.20
3.5 3.35E-11 22.64 4.86E-10 21.91
Safe
 Pipe: API X65 4 1.16E-10 22.37 2.70E-09 21.62
4.5 4.37E-10 22.09 1.43E-08 21.31
 OD: 30”(762 mm) 5 1.78E-09 21.80 7.14E-08 21.00
5.5 7.79E-09 21.50 3.30E-07 20.67
 Thickness: 17.5 mm 6 3.62E-08 21.19 1.40E-06 20.33
6.5 1.72E-07 20.87 5.45E-06 19.98
 Pressure: 7 MPa
7 8.05E-07 20.53 1.92E-05 19.62
7.5 3.56E-06 20.18 6.18E-05 19.25 Fail
8 1.46E-05 19.82 1.81E-04 18.86
8.5 5.39E-05 19.44 4.82E-04 18.45
9 1.79E-04 19.03 0.00118 18.03

 As the failure probability of the defect pipe is different according to the population density of each region and
the international codes, it is required the integrity assessment considering the failure probability of the pipe when
maintaining the pipe.
23
 Allowable burst pressure for Grade “Ga” pipe in “GSD2106 Corrosion Pipe Safety Evaluation Criteria”: 20MPa
Summary

 Assessment of target failure probability(Pf ) with variation of internal

pressure by using ISO-16708 standard

 Assessment of target failure probability(Pf ) on the Seoul, 6 direct-
controlled municipalities, 8 provinces, and 2 autonomous cities by using
CSA Z662 standard
 Failure probability assessment on the corrosion pipe with variation of
corrosion depth and length by using COMREL program
 In addition to the deterministic and quantitative risk assessments, the
structural reliability assessment method can be used to improve the
reliability in maintenance and repair on the defect pipes.

24
Thank you for your attention !