University of Split, Croatia

Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

Hrvoje Gotovac, PhD student

RISK ASSESSMENT FROM THE OIL

WASTE DISPOSAL IN DEEP WELLS
by R. Andricevic, H. Gotovac, M. Loncar and V. Srzic

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 1
 PRESENTATION

 Introduction
 Computational setup
 Flow and transport analysis of the injected
oil waste in deep wells
 Risk assessment of the oil waste disposal
methodology (exceeding risk)
 Conclusions

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 2
1. Introduction

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 3
 waste disposal in a safe
and efficiant manner

Suitable geological formation prevent waste

propagation to the surface with negligible
risk of polluting shallow aquifers

Kontrolirano Impermeable
Waste
injektiranje
smjese cap rock
injection Krovina

Podina
Impermeable
bed rock
Pružanje
Waste spreading
frakture nastale
injektiranjem

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 4
Oil waste injection in deep wells

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 5
DEEP WELL INJECTION

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 6
 Risk Conference 2008,
Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 7
 Construction of deep well

Pi=95 bar
Q=250-300 l/min
Ph=145 bar
Fracture gradient=1,74 bar/10 m
Marl

Sandstone
Injected up to date
150,000 m3
F=15 %

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 8
2. Computational
setup

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 9
Map of the oil field Žutica (Croatia)

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 10
 Selection of appropriate geologic
formations for oil waste injection in
oil field Žutica (Croatia)
 0-500 m (sand and clay layers)
 500 – 1000 m (sandstone and clay layers)
 1000 – 2500 m (sandstone and marl layers)
 Injection zone is located at depth around
2000 (m) and consists of sandstone and marl
layers
Risk Conference 2008,
Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 11
 Selection of appropriate deep well
for oil waste disposal

 Deep well Žutica – 273

 Open holes at 1976-1985 (m), 1994-2021
(m) and 2038-2055 (m)
 Injection fluid density is 1006 – 1020
kg/m3, injection time period is 20 years
and injection capacity is 30 m3/day

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 12
Regression between core horizontal
and vertical permeability
250

200

y = 0.7648x - 1.0071
R2 = 0.7492
150
ky

100

50

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
kx

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 13
 Spontaneous potential
15

0
S p onta ni p o te n cijal ( mV )

-15

-30

-45

-60

-75

-90
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

Depth
i (m)

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 14
 Injectivity test
280

278

276

274

272
pressure, bar

270

268

266

264

262

260
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Q_injection m^3/day

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 15
 3. Flow and
transport analysis

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 16
 Stochastic approach
 Natural variability of the geological formations
as well as lack of the measurements
 Results are given in the form of two first
statistical moments: mean and variance
 Spectral method, small perturbation and
Monte-Carlo method
 For highly heterogeneous formations and oil
waste disposal Monte-Carlo is the most
powerful and robust method

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 17
 Risk Conference 2008,
Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 18
 Monte-Carlo method for analysis of
oil waste disposal in the deep wells
 Measurements (geological, laboratory, core tests,
slug tests, surface and deep seismic, spontaneous
potential, resistance, temperature, sound, tracer
injection,…)
 Geostatistical analysis of conductivity field and
generation of large number of conditional
realizations
 Flow solution using the conventional finite difference
method in the each realization (MODFLOW)
Risk Conference 2008,
Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 19
 Transport solution in the each realization
(PTRACK)
 Tracking large number of particles (200 000)
 Statistical ensemble averaging over the whole
collection of realizations (100)
 Results are total mass through top side of the
injection zone, displacement and
concentration field

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 20
Geostatistical indicator analysis of
sandstone and marl zones
X
Y

Z
INDIKATOR
pjescenjak

lapor

5.058E+06

2000

Z
5.0575E+06
2200
6.3795E+06

X
5.057E+06 6.379E+06

6.3785E+06
5.0565E+06
6.378E+06 Y
5.056E+06 6.3775E+06

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 21
 Geostatistical analysis of the
sandstone
X
Y

K (m/s)
Z 9E-07
7E-07
5E-07
3E-07
1E-07
8E-08
6E-08
4E-08
2E-08
1.5E-08

5.058E+06

2000

Z
5.0575E+06
2200
6.3795E+06

5.057E+06
X 6.379E+06

6.3785E+06
5.0565E+06
6.378E+06 Y

5.056E+06 6.3775E+06

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 22
Geostatistical analysis of the marl
X
Y
K (m/s)
6E-09
3E-09
Z 1E-09
9E-10
7E-10
5E-10
3E-10
2.7E-10

5.058E+06

2000

Z
5.0575E+06
2200
6.3795E+06

5.057E+06
X 6.379E+06

6.3785E+06
5.0565E+06
6.378E+06 Y

5.056E+06 6.3775E+06

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 23
Final geostatistical analysis of the
injection zone
X
Y
K (m/s)
9E-07
Z 5E-07
1E-07
5E-08
1E-08
5E-09
1E-09
5E-10
2.7E-10

5.058E+06

2000

Z
5.0575E+06
2200
6.3795E+06

5.057E+06
X 6.379E+06

6.3785E+06
5.0565E+06
6.378E+06 Y

5.056E+06 6.3775E+06

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 24
 Pressure field
h (m)
3282
3153.8 TRECA REALIZACIJA Y
X
3025.6
2897.4
2769.2
2641
2512.8 ZU -273 Z
2384.6
2256.4
2128.2
1850 2000

1900

1950

2000
Z

2050

2100

2150
6.3788E+06
2200
6.3786E+06
5.0574E+06
5.0572E+06 6.3784E+06
5.057E+06 6.3782E+06 Y
5.0568E+06
6.378E+06
X 5.0566E+06

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 25
 Velocity field in the one chosen
realization
Frame 001  07 Feb 2007  VELOCITY FIELD IN HETEROGENEOUS POROUS MEDIA

Y
X

0
Z

2000
0 2000
Y

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Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 26
 Risk Conference 2008,
Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 27
 Fraction of the total mass through
horizontal control planes

100

90

80

70

60
F (%)

50

40

30
Z1 = 1950 (m)
20

10
Z2 = 1900 (m) Z3 = 1850 (m)
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
t (godine)

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 28
 Fraction of the total mass through
vertical control planes

100

90

80

70
d1 = 100 (m)
60
F (%)

50

40

30

20 d3 = 500 (m)
d2 = 300 (m)
10

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
t (godine)
Risk Conference 2008,
Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 29
Long-term vertical transport
analysis

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Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 30
4. Risk Assessment

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 31
Risk assessment (exceeding risk)
 Probability that load “L” on the
system exceeding the resistance “R”
of the system
pr = P( L  R)
l 2
r2

pr =    f R , L ( r , l ) dl dr
r1 
r 

 
pr =    f L (l ) d l  g R (r ) dr
  r 
Risk Conference 2008,
Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 32
 Risk assessment (exceeding risk)
 L - vertical spreading of the injected oil
waste
 R - vertical position of aquifer for water
supply
 Alternatively, exceeding risk for some
defined time period can be calculated
using the travel time pdf
L
pr ( L ) =  f (l ) d l
0

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 33
Risk assessment (exceeding risk)

 Short-term exceeding risk (pr =10 -3 for

period t=100 year ; Z = 1850 m)

 Long-term exceeding risk (pr =10 -47 for

period t=10 000 year; Z = 500 m )

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 34
 5. Conclusions
 Using all hard and soft input data to reduce
uncertainty of the flow and transport analysis
 Short-term (pr =10 -3 for period t=100 year ) and
long-term exceeding risk (pr =10 -47 for period
t=10 000 year )
 Safe and reliable oil waste disposal methodology
also appropriate for other hazardous wastes
 Consideration of other real physical effects as
unsteady velocity fields, sorption or pore-scale
dispersion which considerably reduce exceeding
risk

Risk Conference 2008,

Cephalonia, Greece, 5-7 May 35