COMPUTING INTERVAL

ESTIMATES OF POPULATION
PROPORTIONS
Lesson Five
YOU ARE EXPECTED TO:
 Identify the appropriate form of the confidence
interval estimator for the population proportion;
 Compute the interval estimates of population
proportions; and
 Solve problems involving confidence interval
estimation of the population proportion.
 As with the estimates of the population of the
population mean, we want to ensure that our
estimates based on samples contain the true
value of the population proportion.
 Can you think of a way of doing this?
STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE SAMPLING
DISTRIBUTION OF p̂

pq
P  ,where q  1  p
n

MARGIN OF ERROR E FOR THE CONFIDENCE

INTERVAL OF A POPULATION PROPORTION

pq ˆˆ
pq
E  z  z
2 n 2 n
THE FORMULA FOR COMPUTING A LARGE –
SAMPLE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR A
POPULATION PROPORTION p

ˆˆ
pq ˆˆ
pq
pˆ  z 2  p  pˆ  z
n 2 n
OR
ˆˆ
pq
pˆ  z
2 n
INTERPRETING INTERVAL
ESTIMATE OF A POPULATION
PROPORTION
LESSON 6
YOU ARE EXPECTED TO:
 Compute interval estimate of a population
proportion;
 Interpret results of interval estimates of a
population proportion; and
 Solve problems involving population proportions.
 There are issues in the society that require
sufficient evidence for decision – making.
 For example, should the use of marijuana be
legalized?
 In this lesson, we shall look at the interpretations of
the results of interval estimation of population
parameters.
EXAMPLE 1: SCIENCE MAJORS
 In a graduate teacher collage, a survey was
conducted to determine the proportions of
students who want to major in Science. If 368 out
of 850 students said YES, with 95% confidence,
what interpretation can we make regarding the
probability that all students in the teacher
graduate college want to major in Science?
 Describe the Result:
 Thus, with 95%confidence, we can assert the interval
from 39.6% to 46.4% contains the true percentage of
all graduate students who want to major in Science.
INTERPRETATION:
 This means that in repeated construction of
confidence intervals, approximately 95% of all
the samples would produce confidence intervals
that contain the true population proportion p.
 This interpretation may lead to a coarse of action
for school managers like embarking on a science
course campaign, improving the school
environment for Science majors, and so on.
 Interpretations depend on the importance of the
solutions to emerging problems.
EXAMPLE 2: FOOD COMBO
 In a certain food stall, 278 out of 500 randomly
selected consumers indicate their preference for a
new kind of food combination. Use a 99%
confidence interval to estimate the true
proportion p who like the new food combination.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL AND
SAMPLE SIZE
Lesson 7
YOU ARE EXPECTED TO
 Understand the relation of confidence interval to
sample size; and
 Determine sample size based on selected
confidence level.
 Two things to remember when we decide on the
quality of the sample size we need:
 Confidence
 Narrowness of the interval.

 The computing formula in determining sample

size is derived from the formula of the margin of
error E:
 z 
2

n 2 
 E 
 
EXAMPLE 1: FEEDING PROGRAM
 In a certain village, Leony wants to estimate the
mean weight μ, in kilograms, of all six – year old
children to be included in a feeding program. She
wants to be 99% confident that the estimate of μ
is accurate to within 0.06 kg. Suppose from a
previous study, the standard deviation of the
weights of the target population was 0.5 kg, what
should the sample size be?
EXAMPLE 2: REPLICATION A STUDY
 Joshua wants to replicate a study where the
lowest observed value is 12.4 while the highest is
12.8. He wants to estimate the population mean μ
to within an error of 0.025 of it is true value.
Using 99% confidence level, find the sample size
n that he needs.
FORMULA IN DETERMINING THE MINIMUM
SAMPLE SIZE NEEDED WHEN ESTIMATING THE
POPULATION PROPORTION.
2
 z 
n  pq
ˆ ˆ  2 
 E 
 
STEPS IN SOLVING FOR SAMPLE SIZE
INVOLVING PROPORTIONS
1. Determine the confidence level.
2. Determine the confidence coefficient.
3. Determine the error E.
4. Determine p̂ and q̂ .
5. Substitute the value in the formula:
2
 z 
ˆ ˆ 2
n  pq 
 E 
 

6. Round up the resulting value to the nearest

whole number.
EXAMPLE 1: DETERGENT X
 Mary wants to know, with 95% confidence, the
proportion of households who like to use
detergent X. A previous survey showed that 42%
like to use detergent X. Mary like to be accurate
within 2% of the true proportion. What sample
size does Mary need?
EXAMPLE 2: NEW SCHOOL STRUCTURE
 The Dean of a collage wants to use proportion of
a population to determine the sample size needed
to interview regarding their thoughts about the
new school structure. She wants to be able to
assert with a probability 0.95 that her error will
be at most 0.05. Similar polls in the past showed
that 65% approved the new structure. How large
a sample does the Dean need?