JESSA C.

ASERAL
BASIC PROBABILITY AND
PROBABILITY MODELS
 Probability is the measure of chance of occurrence of
a particular event. The basic concept of probability is
widely used in the field of hydrology and
hydroclimatology due to its stochastic nature.
 Extreme hydrologic processes can be considered as
random with little or no correlation to adjacent
processes (i.e. time and space independent). Thus, the
output from a hydrologic process can be treated as
stochastic (i.e. non-deterministic process comprised of
predictable and random actions)
 Probabilistic and statistical methods are used to
analyze stochastic processes and involve varying
degrees of uncertainty.
 The focus of probability and statistical methods is on
the observations and not the physical process.
 We will focus on two aspects of hydrology where the
stochastic approach can be applied: rainfall and
streamflow.
 A probability model is a mathematical
representation of a random phenomenon. It is defined
by its sample space, events within the sample space,
and probabilities associated with each event. The
sample space S for a probability model is the set of all
possible outcomes.
 Graphical Analysis of Single Data Sets
1. Histograms
2. Stem and Leaf Diagrams
3. Quantile Plots
4. Boxplots
5. Probability Plots
 Graphical Comparisons of Two or More Data Sets
1. Histograms
2. Boxplots
3. Probability Plots
4. Dot and Line Plots of Means, Standard Deviations
5. Q-Q Plots
 Histograms
Histograms are familiar graphics, and their
construction is detailed in numerous introductory texts
on statistics. Bars are drawn whose height is the number
or fraction of data falling into one of several categories or
intervals.
Histograms have one primary deficiency - their
visual impression depends on the number of
categories selected for the plot.
 Stem and Leaf Diagrams
Stem and leaf diagrams are like histograms turned
on their side with data magnitudes to two significant
digits presented rather than only bar heights.
 Quantile Plots
Quantile plots visually portray the quantiles, or
percentiles (which equal the quantiles times 100) of the
distribution of sample data.

Quantile plots have three advantages:

 Arbitrary categories are not required.
 All of the data are displayed, unlike a boxplot.
 Every point has a distinct position, without overlap.
 Boxplots
A very useful and concise graphical display for
summarizing the distribution of a data set.

Boxplots provide visual summaries of:

 the center of the data
 the variation or spread
 the skewness
 presence or absence of unusual values
 Outliers
Outliers, observations whose values are quite
different than others in the data set, often cause concern
or alarm. They should not. They are often dealt with by
throwing them away prior to describing data, or prior to
some of the hypothesis test procedures . Outliers may be
the most important points in the data set, and should be
investigated further.
Outliers can have one of three causes:
1. a measurement or recording error.
2. an observation from a population not similar to that of
most of the data, such as a flood caused by a dam
break rather than by precipitation.
3. a rare event from a single population that is quite
skewed.