Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Chapter 3
Probability
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
0 25 50 75 100 125
Number of Tosses
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3.1
2. Venn Diagram
T
H
S
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Sample Space Examples
Experiment Sample Space
• Toss a Coin, Note Face {Head, Tail}
• Toss 2 Coins, Note Faces {HH, HT, TH, TT}
• Select 1 Card, Note Kind {2♥, 2♠, ..., A♦} (52)
• Select 1 Card, Note Color {Red, Black}
• Play a Football Game {Win, Lose, Tie}
• Inspect a Part, Note Quality {Defective, Good}
• Observe Gender {Male, Female}
TT
S
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Event Examples
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.
Sample Space: HH, HT, TH, TT
Event Outcomes in Event
• 1 Head & 1 Tail HT, TH
• Head on 1st Coin HH, HT
• At Least 1 Head HH, HT, TH
• Heads on Both HH
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Probabilities
likely
— P(sample point) = 1/T
Compound events:
Composition of two or more other events.
Can be formed in two different ways.
Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A 1 B1) P(A 1 B2) P(A 1)
A2 P(A 2 B1) P(A 2 B2) P(A 2)
Total P(B 1) P(B 2) 1
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2/52 2/52 4/52
Non-Ace 24/52 24/52 48/52 P(Ace)
Complementary Events
AC
A
P(A) + P(AC) = 1
AC
A
Black
Sample
Space:
2, 2, 2,
..., A
S
Event Black: Complement of Event Black,
2, 2, ..., A BlackC: 2, 2, ..., A, A
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3.4
Sample
Outcomes
in Event
Space: Heart:
2, 2, 2, 3, 4
2, ..., A , ..., A
S
Event Spade:
2, 3, 4, ..., A Events and are Mutually Exclusive
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Additive Rule
1. Used to get compound probabilities for
union of events
2. P(A OR B) = P(A B)
= P(A) + P(B) – P(A B)
3. For mutually exclusive events:
P(A OR B) = P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
1. P(A D) = Event
Event C D Total
2. P(B C) = A 4 2 6
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10
Conditional Probability
Black
S (S)
1. P(A|D) = Event
Event C D Total
2. P(C|B) =
A 4 2 6
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10
P A B 2 5 2
P A D
P D 5 5
10
P C B 110 1
P C B
P B 4 4
10
P B D P B P D B
4 3 6
10 5 25
P A B P A P B A 0
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Tree Diagram
Experiment: Select 2 pens from 20 pens: 14
blue & 6 red. Don’t replace.
Dependent!
5/19 R P(R R)=(6/20)(5/19) =3/38
6/20 R
14/19 B P(R B)=(6/20)(14/19) =21/95
14/20
6/19 R P(B R)=(14/20)(6/19) =21/95
B
13/19
B P(B B)=(14/20)(13/19) =91/190
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3.7
Random Sampling
Bayes’s Rule
0.01 Defective
0 .4 Factory
II
0.99 Good
P(I | D)
P(I )P(D | I ) 0.6 0.02
0.75
P(I )P(D | I ) P(II )P(D | II ) 0.6 0.02 0.4 0.01
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Key Ideas
1. 0 ≤ P(Si) ≤ 1
2. P S 1
i
Random Sample
Combinations Rule
N N! N N 1N 2 L N n 1
n n!N n ! n n 1n 2 L 2 1
Bayes’s Rule
P(Si )P( A | Si )
P(Si | A)
P(S1 )P( A | S1 ) P(S2 )P( A | S2 ) ... P(Sk )P( A | Sk )