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Figure 1.4
Economic Losses from Natural Disasters
• Destruction and damage to structures, loss of productivity
and wages
• Increase in economic losses over time is result of increase
in human population and urbanization
• Most expensive events caused by storms and occurred in
U.S., Europe and Japan
Natural Hazards
• Hazard exists even where disasters are infrequent
• Evaluate site risk
• Mitigation prior to event
– Engineering, physical, social and political
plans and actions to reduce death and
destruction from natural hazards
• Mitigation after event
– Rebuilding and re-inhabiting same site
– Case history: Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico
• Eruptions in 822, 1519 and beginning
again in 1994 Figure 1.5
• Currently 100,000 people living at base
Magnitude, Frequency, and Return Period
• Inverse correlation between frequency (how often it occurs) and
magnitude (how big it is) of a process
– Frequent occurrences are low in
magnitude, rare occurrences are
high in magnitude
– Small-scale activity is common, big
events are rare
– Larger the event, longer the return
period (recurrence interval)
• Probability estimates of various size
(10-fatality, 1000-fatality, etc.)
occurrences can be considered
• Cost-benefit ratio can be considered in
conjunction with return-period of given
magnitude event
Overview of Human Population History
• Difficult to assess early human population growth
• Human species ‘began’ approximately 160,000 years ago,
with a few thousand people
• Human
population has
grown to over 6.7
billion people in
2008
• Growth rate is
exponential
Figure 1.7
Side Note: Interest Paid on Money:
An Example of Exponential Growth
Visualize exponential growth in terms of doubling time
• Number of years for population to
double in size, given annual percentage
growth rate
• Doubling time =
70
% growth rate/year
• Example of interest paid on money
– Linear growth: $1000 + $100 / year
– Exponential growth: $1000 + 7% / year
• Example of water lily plant in pond
– Doubles in size every day
– Covers half the pond the day before it Figure 1.9
covers the whole pond
The Last 10,000 Years of Human History
• Flat population growth curve until 8,000 years ago
– Agriculture established
– Domestication of animals
– Growth rate increased to 0.036%/year
• By 2,000 years ago, population ~200 million people
– Better shelter, food, water supplies faster population growth
– Growth rate of 0.056%/year
• By 1750, population
~800 million people
Figure 1.8
The Last 10,000 Years of Human History
• By 1750, population ~800 million people
– Public health principles, causes of disease recognized
– Birth rates soared, death rates dropped
• 1810: ~1 billion
• 1925: ~2 billion
• 1960: ~3 billion Insert figure 1.10 here
• 1974: ~4 billion
• 1987: ~5 billion
• 1999: ~6 billion
• Growth rate =
fertility (birth) rate – mortality (death) rate
Figure 1.12
Future World Population
• BUT population explosion continues
– From 1950 to 2000 population grew from 2.5 billion to 6 billion
– Growth rate of 1.2%/year means population of 9 billion in 2050
• Consider no. of births / woman to predict 2150 population
– Average 1.6 children/woman: 3.6 billion
– Average 2 children/woman: 10.8 billion
– Average 2.6 children/woman (current average): 27 billion
Demographic Divide
• Wealthy countries: low birth rates, long life expectancies
• Poor countries: high birth rates, short life expectancies
• Examples of Japan’s shrinking population vs. Nigeria’s
expanding population
Figure 1.15
Carrying Capacity
• Example of Rapa Nui (Easter Island)
– Isolated Pacific island with poor soil and little water
– Settled by 25-50 Polynesians in 5th century
• Survived easily on chickens and
yams, plenty of free time
• Developed elaborate competition
between clans with moai (statues)
– Civilization peaked at 1550, with
population of ~7000
Figure 1.14
Carrying Capacity
• Example of Rapa Nui (Easter Island)
– Reached by a Dutch ship in 1722
• Found about 2,000 people living in caves
• Primitive society, constant warfare
– Rapa Nui’s carrying capacity had been drastically
lowered by society’s actions:
• Transportation of moai had required cutting down trees
• Erosion of soil made yams scarce
• Lack of canoes made fishing difficult and escape impossible
End of Chapter 1