Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Jørn Olsen
20 November, 2014
Causes – the C-word in epidemiology
AXIOMS
1. (Some) diseases have causes
2. Some of these causes are avoidable
3. Therefore some diseases are preventable
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• But what is causation?
3
Hume – one object E followed by another object D
5
• Mackie – Rothman causal model explains why
causes act probalistic.
Asb.
Smoke Smoke G2
asb G3
G1
E D
Hume’s second definition.
Or, in other words, where the first object had not been
the second would never exist.
• Leads to counterfactual analysis of causation and a
possible definition of causation. Leads also to the RCT
and other designs that can provide the expected
disease occurence among exposed had they not been
exposed
9
Current definition of causation
• E is causing D if E increases the probability of
D
• Or like
• E is causing D if E blocks the estrogen receptor
leading to ... D in the presence of E
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Counterfactual reasoning implies we can
imagine a world where the exposure is not
present.
Counterfactual reasoning also tells us why we
do not compare cases and controls in a case-
control study.
We try to reconstruct the IR among exposed
and not exposed.
We try to imagine what would be the disease
occurrence among the exposed had they not
been exposed and we use not exposed for
that well knowing that they are surrogates for
counterfactual observation time. 12
Causes are upstream or downstream.
Many sexual contacts cause cervical cancer?
Cervical cancer is caused by a specific variant of
HPV?
Both levels of causation can be used in prevention.
Down stream causes may become rather trivial –
accident research for example
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Causes may be presented graphically – as done
by using DAGs.
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DAGs also illustrate situations where causal inference
is justified.
A randomizes trial, incl. Mendelian Randomiza-tion.
R E D
E1 G1
G2 G3
E2 E3
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Quantification of causes
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Do we need a concept of causation? The
surgeons point of view
• If someone kicks me in the back and it hurts –
I know what causes the pain and I want
revenge - not a lecture in philosophy
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Causal interpretation problem
(CIP)
– Alex Broadbent
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• If nobody in the population smoked the risk of
L.C. in that population would be 50% less
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• Counterfactual; a cause makes a
difference: Had it been different or
absent, then the effect would have
been different or absent (AB).
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“A measure of causal strength is a measure of
the net difference in outcome explained by the
exposure.
To explain a difference in outcome such that the
outcome in group A is greater than the outcome
in group B by degree, u , we must have a
difference in exposure which could at least
explain this degree, u.” (AB).
Strength of association is a causal criterium
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• A result, claim, theory, inference, or other
scientific output is stable if and only if
a) It is not known to be contradicted by good
scientific evidence
and
• Sherlock Holmes
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Conclusions
• The Mackie/Rothman causal model has been
useful in providing an understanding (true or
false) of many of the concepts we use. It
inspires to new theories and hypotheses.
• DAGs has been useful in understanding how
causes operate and in helping separating out
causal paths of interest from causal paths of
no interest.
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• Counterfactuals has focused our attention on
what we aim at in our designs and analyses.
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