Presentation Outline

• Energy Scenario & Strategic importance of Oil

1

• Geo Politics & its effect on Crude Oil prices

2

• India’s Import Dependence on petroleum

3

• Crude oil & Renewables in future

4

• Conclusions & Summary

5
 Overview of Energy
• Energy is a basic requirement of mankind.

• Per capita energy consumption is an important indicator for

determining the level of development of a nation.

• Lack of local energy sources can be critical for a nation to plan for
uninterrupted supply.

• Crude oil is one of the most important commodity. Its called ‘Black
Gold’

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 Crude Oil = POWER

• One who controls oil --- will rule the world.

• Oil control has seen wars in modern times.
• Oil Embargo can cripple economy.
• Country with max oil in place may be very poor.
• If war is due to other reasons, oil supply decide the winner.

• World War, India-Pak, Iraq-Kuwait, US-Iraq, Venezuela, Sudan…….

Nation Development: Energy per head

(Kg of oil equivalent)

India Per capita Energy : Potential for upside
India is home to 18% of the world’s
population but uses only 6% of the
world’s primary energy

India’s per capita energy and electricity

consumption Is about one third of China

Energy Demand : Will double from

almost 600 mtoe to about 1200 mtoe
from 2017 to 2042,

Drivers : Transport , Industry And

Urbanisation
 India’s Crude Production

FY 16
 Crude: India’s present Scenario

• We produce 15%
• We import 85%

• We are dependent on foreign source

• Dangers blockage and short supplies in case of war

• Buildup of self sufficiency

• Buildup of strategic reserves

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 Strategic Petroleum Reserves

• SPR Phase 1– Implemented for 5.33 MMT

o Good for 10 days supply.

• SPR Phase 2- Announced in 2018 is for 6.50 MMT

o Adding another 12 days of supply.
o 4 MMT storage at Chandikhole in Odisha and 2.5 MMT
storage at Padur in Karnataka.
 Crude Oil: logical price trend?

• Oil takes million years to form and a minute to burn

• Oil available with mother earth will reduce every passing day

• One day oil will be exhausted

• Prices will be higher and higher

• Why we have extreme volatility?

• Why are prices down?

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Crude Volatility: Indian Basket
10 years average crude price for India

Year $/bbl Avg

2009-10 69.76
2010-11 85.09
2011-12 111.89
2012-13 107.97
2013-14 105.52
2014-15 84.16
2015-16 46.17
2016-17 47.56
2017-18 56.43
2018-19 69.88
 Geo Political Games

• Oil demand & Oil Supply

• Monopoly Position
• Geo-politics

• OPEC- 12 Countries was a traditional monopoly

• USA taking out costly Shale Gas
• Russia & China
• Low price of crude slows the development of Shales & alternative fuels

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Fossil Fuels: Environmental Concerns

• Sustainable development
• Global Warming
• Emission Problems
• Transportation spills
• Pressure Groups
 Renewable Energy

(the European experience)

Do Energy bills have to be always paid?

Can a consumer profit just by consuming electricity??

Why electrical power plants are run in such

circumstances???
 Germany 8th May 2016
87 percent of demand met by sunny and windy weather

Coal and nuclear plants unable to halt production kept

selling to the grid

Electricity prices became negative, allowing consumers to

make a profit.

The coal sector still accounts for around 40 percent of

electricity generated in Germany for a stable power.

Germany aims to be completely reliant on renewable

energy by 2050
Use Electricity and earn money !!!
 Can you become a trader in
electricity??
What I saw in Europe

• Roof-top Solar Panel connected to the grid

• You pay for the difference only

• Mobile App to decide charging of car.

• Mobile app even discharges 50% car battery !!!

 Learning from European countries
• Renewable sources like Hydel, Wind, Solar- playing an
important role in power production in EU

• Energy conservation measures- i) in hotels like automatic

switching on / off light ii) Green buildings iii) LED Lamps

• For short distance travel in cities people use bicycles- for saving
of fuel & for better physical fitness,

• Most people use public transport system. Plan to use electricity

for mass transportation in a big way
Renewable Energy

(the Indian experience)

India’s Energy Mix
 Swanson's law (Solar Cells)

Swanson's law is the observation that the price of solar

photovoltaic modules tends to drop 20 percent for
every doubling of cumulative shipped volume.

At present rates (2018), costs go down 75% about every

10 years.
 India for Solar Power

• 300 clear and sunny days in a year

• Calculated solar energy incidence on India's land area

is about 5000 trillion kWh per year

• Solar energy available to India in just one year

exceeds the total possible energy output of all fossil
fuel energy reserves in India.
 Cum. Wind Power in India
Year Cum. In 2018-19-- 62.04 TWh energy
Wind MW
2010 16,084
2011 18,421 There is a 35% increase in wind
2012 20,149 power generation over the last
2013 21,264 two years.
2014 23,354
2015 26,769
2016 32,280
2017 34,046
2018 36,625
 Cum. Solar Power in India
Year Cum. In 2018-19--39.27 TWH
Solar MW
2010 161
2011 461 There is a 225% increase in
2012 1,205 Solar power generation over
2013 2,319 the last two years.
2014 2,632
2015 3,744
2016 6,763
2017 12,289
2018 21,651
Crude Oil is indispensible
Fuel Mix for types of Transport
Energy mix in total Transport Sector
 Crude Oil & Transport Sector

Dominance of Oil to continues in transportation

Present Scenario (2017): 94 % Transportation is Oil Based

Expected Scenario (2040) : 85 % energy would be Oil Based

Absolute Oil quantity used in transport would increase till

2040.

Increased use of oil would be due to aviation and marine,

rather than on road transportation.
World Petroleum Energy Scenario
1990, 2017, 2040

Net Producers Net Consumers

 Conclusion
• If we look at vision 2030, 2040, or 2050. As total Energy demand
rises. The total crude oil demand also raises.

• The percentage of fossil fuels in energy mix will go down. Oil &
Gas are here to stay. Transportation & Petrochemicals.

• Renewables have to replace fossil fuels for electricity generation.

• Japan has no natural energy resources , France has very little, If

they can become power sufficient why not India ?

• More than resources we need ideas, discipline, system , vision &

political will to make India a energy secure country