Strategic Approaches to International Relations

1 - War: Causation of War, Total War, limited

War, Asymmetric War, Civil War, Guerrilla War.
2 - Strategic Culture: Determinants of Strategic
Culture of Pakistan .
3 - Deterrence: Theory and Practice with Special
reference Nuclear India and Pakistan.
Why do wars occur?
 Causes of War
Kenneth Waltz provides three level of analysis to
explain the causes of War.

1- The Individual.

Some leaders are aggressive.

War is the result of misinterpretation and

miscalculation of the leader.
2 – State/Society
War occurs where society/state;
ethnically diverse, debate about democracy or
dictatorship, economic and political issues, etc.
 Iran Vs. Israel
 North Korea Vs. USA

“war is less likely where population is cohesive and

prosperous”, Plato
There is no need in such societies to divert the
attention of the dissatisfied masses to external
conflict.

The wealthy masses are largely satisfied with the

status quo.
3 - International System

Anarchic Int. System.

Feeling of insecurity and mistrust.

National Interest brings nations into clash.

 Class Activity
Why did Iraq invade Kuwait in 1990-91?
 Iraq/Kuwait war 1990-1991: Causes?
Iraq invaded for its own national interest.

Historic claims of territory.

Saddam – a dictator and aggressor.

He miscalculated Saudi response in permitting US

forces on Saudi soil.
N. Korea and US drawing close to a war: causes?

Dictatorship in N. Korea

N. K externalises the poor economic conditions.

To avoid debate about democracy.

US a super power that does not want instability as

global leader.
 Total war
War in which the parties are willing to make any
sacrifice for a complete victory.
Objectives: Social and Economic.

Use every weapon to break human will.

“Wars cannot be fought by laws”, Clausewitz

WWI and WWII best examples.

 Limited Wars
Where the objective is not occupation but political.

Fought for political gains without causing harm to

civil infrastructure.

Not all available weapons are used.

Gulf War 1990-1991(US involvement)

Best example is Arab – Israel War

 Civil Wars
Wars between the factions within a state over control
of territory, establishment of govt.

Revolutions often lead to civil wars. class discuss?

Ethno-nationalistic movements seeking greater

autonomy or independence (Chechen in Russia,
Tamils in Sri Lank, IHK vs India).

Examples: American civil wars (1861-65) Russian civil

wars (1917-1922), Afghanistan in 1990s.
 Proxy War
 War fought by third parties rather than by the
enemy states themselves.

Many conflicts during the Cold War, such as the

Korean War, Vietnam War, and Afghanistan War.

These wars can be interpreted as proxy wars

between the USA & Soviet Union, neither of which
wanted to fight each other directly.
 Asymmetric Warfare
“War between parties of unequal strength”.
Unconventional tactics used when the military
capabilities are unequal.

Victory in such wars does not always go to the

militarily superior force. (Vietnam, Afghanistan).

The weaker party seeks to reduce opponent’s

strength.
 Guerrilla warfare
A strategy of asymmetrical warfare, where weaker
party often utilizes population to supply like food
shelter and intelligence.

Hit-and-run tactic – inflicting casualities repeatedly.

Weaker side Avoid direct confrontation and exhaust

other.
Examples: Kashmiris vs Indians, Mujahedeen vs Soviets.
 Other Wars

War for dominance – USA Vs. USSR.

Ideological – Cold War, Hindu Muslim.

Religious – Catholics and protestants and Shia Sunni.

Strategic Culture: Determinants of
Strategic Culture of Pakistan.
 Definition
“Strategic culture is a set of beliefs, norms, values,
and historical experiences of the dominant elite
that influences their understanding and
interpretation of security issues and environment,
and shapes their responses to these.” (Rizvi)

It serves as a screen through which the

policymakers view the external security
environment, and take policy decisions.
 Pakistan’s Strategic Culture

Pakistan is one of the least secure countries on the

planet.
Therefore, it spends heavily on defense.

Pakistan has one of the world's largest and best

equipped armed forces with growing arsenal of
nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

Sources of its insecurity is deeply rooted in the past.

 Pakistan’s roots of insecurity
 Indo-Pak enmity since 1947partition.

 Four million Hindus and Sikhs migrated to India.

 Six million Muslims migrated to Pakistan.

 Over one million migrants were slaughtered.

 The bitter memories are still alive in the minds of the Muslims.

 Pakistanis fear - India would reject the “two-nation theory” the

logic behind partition.
India’s support for Bangladesh 1971, reinforced
Pakistan’s view that new Delhi aspire to re-unify India,
or;
at least reduce Pakistan to a position of weakness like
Bhutan Maldives etc.
Kashmir dispute, Afghanistan’s Durand Line Issue.

Pashtoonistan problem.

Though Afghanistan does not pose a direct threat to

Pakistan but with Indian support.
 Key Determinants of Pak's Str. Culture
(1) Opposition to Indian Hegemony and hostile India.
In Oct 1944 and Nov 1946, QA MA Jinnah said – India
and Pakistan should proclaim a Monroe Doctrine of
their own for the defense of the subcontinent.
“We join together as good friends and neighbours and
say to the world, Hands off India”.
Three developments changed the perspective of
Pakistani leaders towards India.
First, the communal riots that accompanied the
partition of India and the massive influx of refugees
shocked them.
Second, disputes over the distribution of civil/military
assets.
Third, the dispute over the accession of Junagadh
and Jammu/Kashmir caused further bitterness.
Pakistan’s civilian military leadership is apprehensive
about Indian hegemonic designs in South Asia.
This is unstated goal of India since days of Nehru.
Indian leaders emphasized India’s commanding role
in a more forceful manner after 1971.
 (2) Afghanistan’s irredentist claims
Afghanistan’s irredentist claims on Pakistan’s territory
intensified insecurity of Pakistan.
In 1947 it laid claim on NWFP and parts of Balochistan.
It opposed Pakistan’s entry into the UNO.
Border clashes between the two countries in the
1950s and the 1960s - diplomatic relations were
severed twice, in 1955 and 1962.
Afghanistan was a weaker military power, but was
supported by India and Soviet Union in1950s.
Two front war was perceived by the security elite of
Pakistan.
 (3) Role of Islam in SC of Pakistan.
Islam is integral to Pakistan’s SC - it contributes in
shaping societal character and the thinking of the
policy makers.
Islam is closely associated - “Islamic Republic of
Pakistan”.
No law can be enacted that violates the basic
principles and teachings of Islam.
All political parties recognize the centrality of Islam.
Education sector at all levels covers Islamic studies.
The historical narratives highlight the advent of Islam in
India, glorify Muslim rule & define Pakistani identity with
reference to Islam and the Muslim rule.
Islamic orientations and values are so deeply rooted in
the society;
“The Islamic notions Shaheed (martyr), ghazi
(victorious), and Jihad-e-fi-Sibilallah (holy war in the
name of God) are emphasized as the major sources of
inspiration for the Pakistani military in war and peace.”
But, this has resulted in rise of Islamic Fundamentalism ….;
Islamization of Zia ul Haq who faced crisis of legitimacy
and wanted to supress democratic movements.
Afghan war against godless communists, ISI + US had to
work with clerics and madrassah students.
National Security Policy guidelines
These determinants and sources of insecurity shaped
the worldview of security elite towards regional and
international politics with policy options;
Indian Fear and opposition to Indian hegemony -
strengthening of security by assigning the highest
priority to defense needs.
Optimism about Military capabilities.
Optimism about allies’ cooperation - reliance on
diplomacy, to overcome its military weakness vis-à-vis
militarily powerful India.
 1 Acquire Nuclear Capability for Deterrence
Pakistan has waged a determined campaign to
acquire an deterrent ever since 1971.
Despite Pakistan’s detonation of nuclear weapon
device in May 1998 and numerous test flights of various
missile delivery systems, the expansion, diversification,
and security of its deterrent remain key priorities,
especially as Indian military might continue to grow.

Deterrence is built on a strong conventional/nuclear

capability and demonstration of its willingness to run
high risks and pay high costs to deter aggression.
2 Foreign financial Aid

To compensate Indian;
manpower
Size
International position
Strong economy
Large Market etc.
Acquire foreign Aid / Allies
 3 Stability on Pakistan’s Western Borders

Contain Taliban or any other group with

religious militant tendencies.

To check the Influx of Refugees, Drug

traffickers, and organized criminal networks.

Having cordial relations with friendly Afghan

government.
 4 Identification with Muslim issues;
Two nation theory that brought Pakistan into being -
plays an important role in shaping national identity
and foreign policy.

After independence, Muslim nationalism became a

nationalist ideology.

Islam guides Pakistan to support Muslim causes all

over the World. (Palestine, Chechnya)
 Conclusion:
 Acute insecurity developed in the early years of Pak. due
to troubled relations with India and Afghanistan.

 Indo-Pak trust deficit is the result of historical narratives of

the pre independence period and the troubled bilateral
relations in the post-independence period.

 Pak will not accept Indian hegemony in South Asia.

 Ironically, a close nexus between Islam and strategic

thinking has driven Pakistan to the present religious &
sectarian militancy.
Deterrence: Theory and Practice
with Special reference Nuclear
India and Pakistan
 Defining Deterrence
“Deterrence is an attempt by P to prevent I from
undertaking a course of action (attack) that P
regards as undesirable, by threatening to inflict
unacceptable costs upon I in the event that the
action is taken.” Phil Williams

Alexander George, “An effort by actor P to persuade

actor I not to take action of some kind against his
interests by the convincing the actor I that the costs
and risks of doing so will outweigh what he hopes to
gain thereby”.
Simply “dissuasion by means of threat”.

The term deterrence with French roots means “to

frighten from”.

The most developed form of the deterrence came in

Nuclear era after 1940s.

Defining feature od deterrence is threat of

punishment.
 Deterrence in Nuclear Era
The idea was articulated by Bernard Brodie in 1946;

“The chief purpose of our military establishment has

been to win wars, from now on its purpose would be to
avert them”.

Nuclear Weapons’ effects on state-to-state relations;

First, nuclear weapons provide the nuclear State with

an “infrangible guarantee of its independence and
physical integrity”.
 Deterrence in Nuclear Era

Second, mutual deterrence among enemy nuclear

States places limits on violence and in turn acts as a
brake on total war.

Third, by altering the „offence-defence‟ balance in

favour of defence, nuclear weapons have made it
possible for weaker States to defend themselves
effectively against larger power countries.
 Components of Deterrence

1 Capability

2 The intention to employ it

3 The ability to communicate both capability and

resolve.
 Deterrence Effects

If you wish to measure – how effectively deterrence

works, one can measure capability & intent and find the
answer.

Deterrence Effect = Estimated Cap x Estimated Intent

 Steps in Deterrence
Evaluate interests at the stake (e.g. Pak India)

Convey commitment to defend those interests

Back commitments by threats to respond if the

opponent acts.

Make such threats appear credible and sufficient in

the eyes of the opponent.
 How is it different from defence?

Defence - is the ability to defend oneself against an

act of aggression.

Deterrence is the ability to persuade the adversary

from committing an act of aggression.

Defence starts when deterrence fails.

Deterrence is based on the threat of retaliation with

force to inflict unacceptable damage.
 Assumptions of Deterrence Theory
Decisions of defender and challenger will be rationally
calculated.

Threat of Nukes prevent the aggression.

Both defender and offender place their security at the

top.

Both have strong communication.

 Nuclear Deterrence in Indo-Pak case …
India - Pak protect their strategic autonomy and
nuclear weapons capability.

India and Pakistan rejected UN Resolution 1172

which urges India and Pakistan, to become party to
NPT and CTBT.

India and Pakistan are responsible and sane in terms

of nuclear deterrence – the way USSR & USA
behaved.
Conclusion:
Negative View;
 Indo - Pak nuclearization has not deterred 1999 Kargil,
and 2001-2002 stand off….
 Possibility of Indian surgical strikes inside Pakistan in the
aftermath of the Mumbai 2008 & Uri attacks 2016.
Positive View;
 Nuclear deterrence has successfully prevented war.
 Kargil was not a war between two states.
 Indo – Pak agree on nuclear risk-reduction measures, e.g.
non-attack on each other’s nuclear installations & Missile
Test/military exercise notifications.
 Questions ..

What is the role of nuclear weapons in 21st

century politics and how effectively nuclear
deterrence has averted war between India and
Pakistan since 1998?