QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

BY

ZEPPELIN SYSTEMS INDIA PVT LTD

BARODA - GUJARAT - INDIA
 GENERAL TERMINOLOGY

Risk:
A measure of potential economic loss or human injury in terms of the probability of the loss or injury
occurring and the magnitude of the loss or injury if it occurs.

As per Indian Standard IS 15656 : 2006, Risk can be mathematically defined as:

R = FC

where,

R – Risk (loss or injury per year);

F – Event per Year;

C – Loss or Injury per Event

Hazard:
A state or condition having the potential to cause a deviation from uniform or intended behaviour which,
in turn, may result in damage to property, people or environment.

1/23/2020 2
 RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk Assessment (RA) is a
formal and systematic risk
analysis approach to
quantifying the risks
associated with the operation
of an engineering process.
1/23/2020
Tool to support the
understanding of exposure of
risk to employees, the
environment, company assets
and its reputation. It also
helps to make cost effective
decisions and manages the
risks for the entire asset
lifecycle.
3
 RISK ASSESSMENT

Qualitative Risk Assessment Quantitative Risk Assessment

 Subjective assessment for frequency and  Require Numerical Calculation for

consequence analysis. frequency and consequence analysis.

 Does not require any software.
 Risk can be assessed based on risk
matrix.
 Results are less sophisticated.
 Require Technical Software like DNV-
PHAST & SAFETI
 Multiple number of Project Specific
inputs are needed.
 Results are more useful for decision
making.

1/23/2020 4
 WHY RISK ASSESSMENT

 Legal requirements

 Statutory Compliances

 To understand risks and manage them effectively

 To support a land-use planning

 Management of change (MOC)

 Insurance requirement

 F & G Mapping

1/23/2020 5
 METHODOLOGY

1/23/2020 6
 QRA STEPS

1. Goal

2. System Definition

3. Hazard Identification

4. Consequence Estimation

5. Frequency Analysis

6. Risk Estimation

7. Risk Assessment

8. Risk Mitigation & Recommendation

1/23/2020 7
 CONTINUED……

Goal:
• Purpose for carrying out risk analysis is required as part of statutory requirement, emergency
planning, etc. depending on the nature of industry.

System Definition:
• The scope of work for a QRA should be to define the boundaries for the study, identifying which
activities are to be included and which are to be excluded.

Hazard Identifications:
• Review of the Plant Layouts, P&IDs, PFDs etc. to determine process streams and its location;

• Review of the Heat and Material Balance sheets to gain an understanding of the properties of each
section (e.g. operating pressure, operating temperature, composition, etc.);

• A qualitative review of Possible incidents that may occur, based on previous accident, experience or
engineering judgement, creating synthetic situations where necessary;

• Critical Scenarios from HAZOP, HAZID & HAZAN Reports.

IDENTIFIED SCENRIOS FOR PROJECT FACILITY

1/23/2020 8
 CONTINUED……

Consequences Estimation:
• The consequences of scenarios in the plant in the form of fire, explosion and toxic effects have to be
estimated and presented using mathematical or software models. There are many possible types of
flammable, toxic and overpressure cases. Some of the major are defined and depicted as follows:

1/23/2020 9
 CONTINUED……

Flash Fire :

A Flash Fire is low-intensity combustion without explosion, whose effect zone is up to the LFL
(Lower Flammable Limit) region of the cloud. A flash fire may occur if the gas cloud reaches a
source of ignition and rapidly burns back to the source of release. Due to the short duration of a
flash fire, only people within the fire path will be affected.

1/23/2020 10
 CONTINUED……

Jet Fire:

Release of a flammable material at high pressure due to

hardware failure (leak) may lead to formation of jet, which

may cause jet fire on immediate availability of ignition. The

Jet Fire could damage the neighboring vessels / tanks by

direct flame impingement. The thermal radiations may as

well affect surrounding population.

1/23/2020 11
 CONTINUED……

Pool Fire :

A flammable or combustible liquid released to atmosphere can form a pool; flammable vapors above
the pool can be ignited originating a pool fire. A pool fire can occur in the storage units (bund fire)
and in the process units as a consequence of a potential leak on a pipe or equipment..

1/23/2020 12
 CONTINUED……

Fire Ball:

A fireball is atmospheric burning of a fuel – air mixture in which the energy is mostly emitted in the
form of radiant heat. The inner core of fuel released consists of almost pyre (a pile of combustibles)
fuel whereas the outer layer in which ignition first occurs is a flammable fuel-air mixture. As buoyancy
forces of hot gases begin to dominate the burning cloud rises and forms a more spherical shape.

1/23/2020 13
 CONTINUED……

Vapor Cloud Explosion (VCE):

When a flammable cloud gets accumulated in confined area then Vapor Cloud Explosion (VCE)
provided ignition source is present and cloud reaches its LEL (Lowe Explosive Limit) value. It is a
rapid expansion of gases resulting in a rapid moving pressure or shock wave if ignited its flame front
will travel at supersonic velocity causing explosion.

1/23/2020 14
 CONTINUED……

Toxic gas dispersion:

Release of toxic gas or vapour disperses in the air for some distance; although the dispersion
phenomenon is governed by the wind, turbulence around the site, density of the gas and initial
momentum of the release. Depending upon the toxicity data of the chemical, different chemicals
have different concentration in the air which causes different degree of harm.

1/23/2020 15
 CONTINUED……

Depending upon Industry under consideration and scenarios selected, there may be several other
kinds of consequences that may occur for example:

1) BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion)

2) Physical Explosion – By Hardware Failure or Missile Hits.

3) Splash of Corrosive Liquids etc.

Also, Risk Studies can go broader; as there are several new aspects getting introduced day by day
and proper guidelines are taking shape to cope up new aspects for this changing world:

1) Cyber Attack

2) Sabotage

3) Operational Risk

4) Terrorist Attack

5) Natural Hazards (Earthquake, Cyclones, Flood, Landslides etc)

The studies related to the above factors depends the type scope of work.

1/23/2020 16
 RISK CALCULATIONS

Frequency Analysis:
• Failure frequency estimates how likely it is for the accidents to occur, based on the type and
number of equipment components included in the defined failure cases.

• The component failure frequencies to be used and its calculation methods are usually derived from
an analysis of historical accident failure databases as available in some internationally accepted
guidelines such as:

1) OGP,

2) UK HSE,

3) Purple Book or,

4) Indigenously developed accident databases etc.

1/23/2020 17
 RISK CALCULATIONS

Risk Estimation:
The Risk “R” is commonly described by its two dimensions, i.e. the frequency of this event (F) and
the consequence of an accidental event (C) :

R=FXC

Once the frequencies and consequences/impact of each identified scenario have been estimated,
they can be combined in Software Packages to produce Risk Results.

Risk Results are broadly represented in two ways:

1) Individual Risk

2) Societal Risk

1/23/2020 18
 CONTINUED……

Individual Risk

Individual Risk is usually calculated as LSIR (Location Specific Individual Risk) assumes that the
individual is at a location 24 hours and 365 days a year. It is a measure of the geographic
distribution of risk independent of the distribution of people at that location or in the surrounding
area. Pictorially it is represented by LSIR contours where each contour shows specific individual risk
area:

1/23/2020 19
 CONTINUED……

Societal Risk:

The “Societal Risk” is a measure of the risk that the events pose to the local population, considering
the distribution of the population in the local area. The risk results are presented in the form of FN
Curve, which shows the frequency (F) of outcomes which cause (N) or more fatalities. In addition the
PLL and contribution of each failure case to the societal risk are calculated.

1/23/2020 20
 RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk Assessment:
Risk Assessment is the process of comparing the level of risk against a set criteria as well as the
identification of major risk contributors.

The UK HSE Individual Risk Criteria is considered to compare the calculated risk level.

 Individual risk levels above 1 x 10-3 per year will be considered unacceptable and will be
reduced, irrespective of cost.

 Individual risk levels below 1 x 10-6 per year will be broadly acceptable.

 Risk levels between 1 x 10-3 and 1 x 10-6 per year in in as low as reasonably practicable

1/23/2020 21
 CONTINUED……

ALARP Demonstration:
The ALARP (As Low As is Reasonably Practicable) principle seeks to answer the question “What is
an acceptable risk?” The definition may be found in the basis for judgment used in British law that
one should be as safe as is reasonably practicable.

1/23/2020 22
 RISK MITIGATION & RECOMMENDATION

Risk Mitigation:
Develop mitigation measures for unacceptable generators of risk to reduce the overall level of risk to
As Low As Reasonably Practical (ALARP)/Acceptable region. It can be done by:

1) Design Changes (In P & IDs or Installation of some Utilities)

2) Automation

3) Staffing Position changes

4) Trainings

Recommendation:
As per the consequence and risk results and to further bring down the risk levels recommendations
are given based upon the practical expertise of QRA consultant. These recommendations are
usually given in consultation with the plant officials so that it could be adopted in a realistic manner.

1/23/2020 23
 QRA SOFTWARE

 There are many software available for risk studies. Until recently ALOHA tool were used to
fetch out the Qualitative results.

 PHAST & SAFETI developed by DNV is by far the most comprehensive quantitative tool
available for assessing process plant risks.

 Designed to perform all the analytical, data processing and results presentation elements of
a QRA within a structured framework.

 Analyses complex consequences from accident scenarios, taking account of local

population and weather conditions, to quantify the risks associated with the release of
hazardous chemicals.

1/23/2020 24
 QRA SOFTWARE

 There are many software available for risk studies. Until recently ALOHA tool were used to
fetch out the Qualitative results.

 PHAST & SAFETI developed by DNV is by far the most comprehensive quantitative tool
available for assessing process plant risks.

 Designed to perform all the analytical, data processing and results presentation elements of
a QRA within a structured framework.

 Analyses complex consequences from accident scenarios, taking account of local

population and weather conditions, to quantify the risks associated with the release of
hazardous chemicals.

1/23/2020 25
 THANK YOU VERY MUCH

ANY QUERY ?

1/23/2020 26