Chap 04

Chapter 4 -
Managing
Project
Processes
To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.
Activity Relationships
Activity Relationship
AOA AON
Figure 4.1
S precedes T, which precedes U.
AOA AON
S T U
1 2 3 4 S T U
Figure 4.1
S and T must be completed before U can be started.
AOA AON
1 S S
U
T 3 4 U
2 T
Figure 4.1
T and U cannot begin until S has been completed.
AOA AON
T 3 T
S
1 2 U S
4 U
Figure 4.1
U and V cannot begin until both S and T have been

completed.
AOA AON
1 S U 4 S U
T 3 V
2 5 T V
Figure 4.1
U cannot begin until both S and T have been completed;

V cannot begin until T has been completed.
AOA AON
S U
1 3 5 S U
Dummy
T V
2 4 6 T V
Figure 4.1
T and U cannot begin until S has been completed; V

cannot begin until both T and U have been completed.
AOA AON
S T V
1 2 4 5 S T V
Dummy
U
3 U
Figure 4.1
St. Adolf’s Hospital
Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s)
ASelect administrative and medical staff.
BSelect site and do site survey.
CSelect equipment.
DPrepare final construction plans and layout.
E Bring utilities to the site.
F Interview applicants and fill positions in nursing,
support staff, maintenance, and security.

GPurchase and take delivery of equipment.
HConstruct the hospital.
I Develop an information system.
J Install the equipment.
KTrain nurses and support staff.
Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s)
ASelect administrative and medical staff. —
BSelect site and do site survey. —
CSelect equipment. A
DPrepare final construction plans and layout. B
E Bring utilities to the site. B
F Interview applicants and fill positions in nursing,
support staff, maintenance, and security. A

GPurchase and take delivery of equipment. C
HConstruct the hospital. D
I Develop an information system. A
J Install the equipment. E,G,H
KTrain nurses and support staff. F,I,J
Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
AON Network Description Predecessor(s)
A Select
administrative and medical staff. —
B Select
site and do site survey. —
C Select
equipment. A
D
Prepare final construction plans and layout. B
E Bring
utilities to the site. B
F
Interview applicants and fill positions in nursing,

Example 4.1
G To Accompany Krajewski & Ritzman Operations Management: Strategy and Analysis, Sixth Edition © 2002 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.
Immediate
Activity
A Select
B A Select
C Select
equipment.
Start A
D
E Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A Select
B A Select
C Select
equipment.
Start A
D
E B Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A Select
B A Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C A
D
E B Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A Select
B A Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C A
D
E B D Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A Select
B A Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C A
D
E B D Bring
F
Interview applicantsEand fill positions in nursing,

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A Select
B A F Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C A
D
E B D Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A Select
B A F Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C G A
D
E B D Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A Select
B A F Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C G A
D
E B D H Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
AON Network Description
I Predecessor(s)
A Select
B A F Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C G A
D
E B D H Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
I Predecessor(s)
A Select
B A F Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C G A
D
E B D H J Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
I Predecessor(s)
A Select
B A F K Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C G A
D
E B D H J Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
I Predecessor(s)
A Select
B A F K Select
C Select
equipment.
Start C G Finish A
D
E B D H J Bring
F
Figure 4.2
Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
AOA Network Description Predecessor(s)
A Select
B Select
C Select
equipment. A
D
E Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A 2 Select
B Select
site and A do site survey. —
C Select
equipment.
Start A
D 1
E Bring
F

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A 2 Select
B Select
C Select
equipment.
Start A
D 1
E B Bring
F
4

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
A 2 Select
C
B Select
3
C Select
equipment.
Start A
D 1
Prepare final construction
5 plans and layout. B
E B Bring
utilities to the site.
D B
F
4

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
F
A 2 8 Select
administrative and Imedical staff. —
C
B Select
3 7
C Select
equipment.
Start G A
D 1
H
5 6plans and layout. B
E B Bring
E
D B
F
4

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
F
A 2 8 Select
administrative and Imedical staff. —
C
B Select
3 7 J
C Select
equipment.
Start G A
D 1
H
E B Bring
E
D B
F
4

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
F
A 2 8 Select
administrative and Imedical
Dummystaff. —
C
B Select
3 7 J
C Select
equipment.
Start G A
D 1
H
E B Bring
E
D B
F
4

Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
F
A 2 8 Select
administrative and Imedical
Dummystaff. —
C
B K Select
A
3 7 J
C Select
equipment.
Start G A
Finish
D 1 9
H
E B Bring
E
D B
F
4
Figure 4.3
Example 4.1
Immediate
Activity
Completion Time Description Predecessor(s)
A Select
B Select
C Select
equipment. A
D
E Bring
F

Immediate
Activity
Completion Time Description I Predecessor(s)
15
A Select
A F K
B 12 10 6 Select
C Select
C G
equipment.
Start
10 35
Finish A
D
B D H J
E 9 10 40 4 Bring
F
Interview applicants Eand fill positions in nursing,
24
Figure 4.4
Immediate
Activity
15
A Select
A F K
B 12 10 6 Select
C Select
C G
equipment.
Start
10 35
Finish A
D
B D H J
E 9 10 40 4 Bring
F
24

Immediate
Activity
15
A Select
A F K
B 12 10 6 Select
C Select
C G
equipment.
Start
10 35
Finish A
D
B D H J
E 9 10 40 4 Bring
F
24

Immediate
Activity
15
A Select
A F K
B 12 10 6 Select
C Select
C G
equipment.
Start
10 35
Finish A
D
B D H J
E 9 10 40 4 Bring
F
24

Immediate
Activity
15
A Select
A F K
B 12 10 6 Select
C Select
C G
equipment.
Start
10 35
Finish A
D
B D H J
E 9 10 40 4 Bring
F
24

Immediate
Activity
15
A Select
A F K
B 12 10 6 Select
C Select
C G
equipment.
Start
10 35
Finish A
D
B D H J
E 9 10 40 4 Bring
F
24

Path Expected Time (wks) Immediate
Activity
Completion Time Description
I Predecessor(s)
A-F-K 28 15
A-I-K A 33 Select
administrative
A-C-G-J-K 67A and medical staff. —
F K
B
B-D-H-J-K 6912 10 6 Select
B-E-J-K site and do 43site survey. —
C Select
C G
equipment.
Start
10 35
Finish A
D
B D H J
E 9 10 40 4 Bring
F
24

Activity
I Predecessor(s)
A-F-K 28 15
A-I-K A 33 Select
administrative
F K
B
C Select
C G
equipment.
Start
10 35
Finish A
D
B D H J
E 9 10 40 4 Bring
F
24

Activity
I Predecessor(s)
A-F-K 28 15
A-I-K A 33 Select
administrative
F K
B
C Select
C G
equipment.
Start
10 35
Finish A
D
B D H J
E 9 10 40 4 Bring
F
24

Figure 4.5
St. Adolf’s Hospital I
15
A F K
12 10 6
C G
Start Finish
10 35
B D H J
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
E
Earliest Finish Times 24 Example 4.2
15
Earliest start time
0
A F K
12 10 6
C G
Start Finish
10 35
B D H J
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
E
Earliest start time

15 Earliest finish time
0
A 12 F K
12 10 6
C G
Start Finish
10 35
B D H J
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
E
15
0
A 12 F K
12 10 6
C G
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 D H J
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
E
15
0
A 12 F K
12 10 6
C G
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 9
D 19 H J
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
9 E 33
St. Adolf’s Hospital 12
I 27
15
0
A 12 12
F 22 K
12 10 6
12
C 22 G
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 9
D 19 H J
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
9 E 33
I 27
15
0
A 12 12
F 22 K
12 10 6
12
C 22 G
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 J
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
9 E 33
I 27
15
0
A 12 12
F 22 K
12 10 6
12
C 22 22
G 57
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 J
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
9 E 33
I 27
15
0
A 12 12
F 22 K
12 10 6
12
C 22 22
G 57
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59
J 63
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
9 E 33
I 27
Earliest start time Earliest finish time
15
0
A 12 12
F 22 63 K 69
12 10 6
12
C 22 22
G 57
Start Finish
Critical 10 35
path
0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59
J 63
9 10 40 4
Earliest Start
and
9 E 33
Earliest Finish Times 24 Figure 4.6
I 27
15
0
A 12 12
F 22 63 K 69
12 10 6
12
C 22 22
G 57
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59
J 63
9 10 40 4
Latest Start
and
9 E 33
Latest Finish Times 24 Example 4.3
I 27
15
0
A 12 12
F 22 63 K 69
12 10 63 69
6 Latest
finish
time
12
C 22 22
G 57
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59
J 63
9 10 40 4
Latest Start
and
9 E 33
I 27
15
0
A 12 12
F 22 Latest 63 K 69
12 10 start 63 69
6 Latest
time finish
time
12
C 22 22
G 57
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59
J 63
9 10 40 4
Latest Start
and
9 E 33
St. Adolf’s Hospital 12 27
I
48 15 63
0
A 12 12
F
22 63 K 69
53 10 63 63 69
12 6
12
C 22 22
G 57
Start Finish
10 35
0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H 59 59 63
J
40 59 4 63
9 10
Latest Start
and
9 E 33
I
48 15 63
0
A 12 12
F
22 63 K 69
53 10 63 63 69
12 6
12
C 22 22
G
57
Start Finish
10 24 35 59
0
B 9 9
D 19 19
H
59 59 63
J
19 40 59 59 4 63
9 10
Latest Start
and
9 E 33
Latest Finish Times 35 24 59
Example 4.3
I
48 15 63
0
A 12 12
F
22 63 K 69
53 10 63 63 69
12 6
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start Finish
14 10 24 24 35 59
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9
Latest Start
and
9 E 33
Example 4.3
I
Earliest start time Earliest finish time
48 15 63
Latest start time Latest finish time
0
A
12 12
F
22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
6
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start Finish
14 10 24 24 35 59
Critical
path
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
Latest Start
and
9 E 33
Figure 4.7
Gantt charts
Gantt Charts
Figure 4.8
I
48 15 63
0
A
12 12
F
22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
6
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start Finish
14 10 24 24 35 59
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
Activity Slack
9 E 33
Analysis 35 24 59
Example 4.4
St. Activity
Adolf’s Slack
Hospital 12 27
I
48 15 63
0
A
12 12
F
22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
6
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start
14 10 24 24 35 59 Finish
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
Activity Slack
9 E 33
Analysis 35 24 59
Example 4.4
St. Activity
Adolf’s Slack
Hospital 12 27
I
48 15 63
Slack = LS – ES
or 0
A
12 12
F
22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
6
Slack = LF – EF
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start
14 10 24 24 35 59 Finish
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
Activity Slack
9 E 33
Analysis 35 24 59
Example 4.4
St. Activity
Adolf’s Slack
Hospital 12 27
I
48 15 63
SlackK = 63 – 63
or 0
A
12 12
F
22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
6
SlackK = 69 – 69
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start
14 10 24 24 35 59 Finish
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
Activity Slack
9 E 33
Analysis 35 24 59
Example 4.4
St. Activity
Adolf’s Slack
Hospital 12 27
I
48 15 63
SlackK = 0
or 0
A
12 12
F
22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
6
SlackK = 0
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start
14 10 24 24 35 59 Finish
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
Activity Slack
9 E 33
Analysis 35 24 59
Example 4.4
I
48 15 63
0
A
12 12
F
22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
6
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start
14 10 24 24 35 59 Finish
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
Activity Slack
9 E 33
Analysis 35 24 59
Example 4.4
Node Duration ES LS Slack
I
48 15 63
0
A
12 12
F
22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
6
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start
14 10 24 24 35 59 Finish
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
Activity Slack
9 E 33
Analysis 35 24 59
Example 4.4
St.
A Adolf’s
12 0 2 Hospital
2 12 27
I
B 9 0 0 0 48 15 63
C 10 12 14 2
D 10 9 9 0
E 24 9 35 26
A 12 F
0 12 22 63 K 69
F 10 12 53 41
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
G 35 22 24 2 6
H 40 19 19 0
I 15 12 48 36 C G
J 4 59 59 0 12 22 22 57
Start
14 10 24 24 35 59 Finish
K 6 63 63 0
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
Activity Slack
9 E 33
Analysis 35 24 59
Example 4.4
St.
A Adolf’s
12 0 2 Hospital
2 12 27
I
B 9 0 0 0 48 15 63
C 10 12 14 2
D 10 9 9 0
E 24 9 35 26 F
12 22 63 K 69
F 10 12 53 41
53 10 63 63 69
G 35 22 24 2 6
H 40 19 19 0
I 15 12 48 36 C G
J 4 59 59 0 12 22 22 57
14 10 24 24 35 59 Finish
K 6 63 63 0
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
9 E 33
Critical Path 35 24 59
Example 4.4
I
48 15 63
0
A
12 12
F
22 63 K 69
2 12 14 53 10 63 63 69
6
12
C
22 22
G
57
Start Finish
14 10 24 24 35 59
0
B 9 9
D
19 19
H
59 59 63
J
0 9 10 19 19 40 59 59 4 63
9 9
9 E 33
Critical Path 35 24 59
Example 4.4
Activity Slack
Figure 4.9
Cost-Time Relationships in Cost Analysis
8000 —
7000 —
Direct cost (dollars)
6000 —
5000 —
4000 —
3000 —
0—
| | | | | |
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Figure 4.10 Time (weeks)

8000 —
7000 — Crash cost (CC)

6000 —
5000 —
4000 —
3000 —
0— Normal cost (NC)

| | | | | |
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
(Crash time) (Normal time)
8000 —

Linear cost assumption

6000 —
5000 —
4000 —
3000 —

| | | | | |
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
8000 —

Linear cost assumption

6000 —
Estimated costs for
5000 —
5200 a 2-week reduction,
from 10 weeks to
4000 —
8 weeks
3000 —

| | | | | |
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Maximum
Normal Normal Crash Crash Time Cost of
Time Cost Time Cost Reduction Crashing per
Activity (NT) (NC) (CT) (CC) (wk) Week
A 12 $ 12,000 11 $ 13,000 1 $ 1,000

B 9 50,000 7 64,000 2 7,000
C 10 4,000 5 7,000 5 600
D 10 16,000 8 20,000 2 2,000
E 24 120,000 14 200,000 10 8,000
F 10 10,000 6 16,000 4 1,500
G 35 500,000 25 530,000 10 3,000
H 40 1,200,000 35 1,260,000 5 12,000
I 15 40,000 10 52,500 5 2,500
J 4 10,000 1 13,000 2 1,000
K 6 30,000 5 34,000 1 4,000
Totals $1,992,000 $2,209,000
Table 4.1
Minimum-Cost Schedule
A-I-K: 33 weeks B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks
A-F-K: 28 weeks B-E-J-K: 43 weeks
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000

Indirect costs = $8,000/week
Penalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65
Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000

Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000

Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks

Crash Activity J by 3 weeks @ $1,000/week
Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000


3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000
Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000


3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000
$2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000
Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000


3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000
$2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000
Example 4.5
I
Minimum Cost Schedule 15

A-F-K: 28 weeks A B-E-J-K:
F 43 weeks
K
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks 12 10 6
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000

C G
Start Finish
10 35
B D H J
Critical Path B-D-H-J-K:
699 weeks
10 40 1

E
24
3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000
$2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000
I

A-F-K: A
28 weeks F B-E-J-K: K43 weeks
12 10 6
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000C $2,543,000

G
Start Finish
10 35

B D H J
9 10 40 1
E
24
3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000
$2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000


Crash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week
Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000


$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000
$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000
Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000


$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000
$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000
Example 4.5
I

A-F-K: 28 weeks A B-E-J-K:
F 43Kweeks
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks 12 10 6
Total cost = $2,624,000 C$2,511,000

G
Start Finish
10 35

B D H J
Critical Path 9
B-D-H-J-K:
69 weeks 40
10 1

E
24
$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000
$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000
I

A-F-K: 28 weeks A F
B-E-J-K: 43Kweeks
10
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks12 6
Total cost = $2,624,000 C$2,511,000

G
Start Finish
10 35

B D H J
9 8 40 1
E
24
$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000
$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000

Critical Paths B-D-H-J-K and A-C-G-J-K: 64 weeks

Crash Activity K by 1 week @ $4,000/week
Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,511,000


$8,000 – $4,000 = $4,000
$2,511,000 – $4,000 = $2,507,000
Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,507,000


$8,000 – $4,000 = $4,000
$2,511,000 – $4,000 = $2,507,000
Example 4.5
I

A-F-K: 28 weeks A F
B-E-J-K: 43Kweeks
10
Total cost = $2,624,000 C$2,511,000

G
Start Finish
10 35

B D H J
9 8 40 1
E
24
$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000
$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000
I

A-F-K: 28 weeks A F
B-E-J-K: 43Kweeks
10
Total cost = $2,624,000 C$2,511,000

G
Start Finish
10 35

B D H J
9 8 40 1
E
24
$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000
$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,507,000


Crash Activities B and C by 2 weeks
@ $7,000/week and $600/week
Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,507,000


2($8,000) – 2($7,600) = $800
$2,507,000 – $800 = $2,506,200 Example 4.5
A-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks
Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,506,200


2($8,000) – 2($7,600) = $800
$2,507,000 – $800 = $2,506,200 Example 4.5
I

A-F-K: 28 weeks A F
B-E-J-K: 43Kweeks
10
Total cost = $2,624,000 C$2,511,000

G
Start Finish
10 35

B D H J
9 8 40 1
E
24
$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000
$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000
I

A-F-K: 28 weeks A F
B-E-J-K: 43Kweeks
10
Total cost = $2,624,000 C$2,511,000

G
Start Finish
8 35

B D H J
7 8 40 1
E
24
$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000
$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000
Coors Field
Probabilistic Time Estimates
Probability
Time
Figure 4.11
Probability
Time
a m b
Mean
Figure 4.11 (a)
Area under curve

between a and b
is 99.74%
Probability
3σ 3σ Time
a m b
Mean
Figure 4.11 (b)
Probabilistic I
Time Estimates
A F K
Start C G Finish
B D H J
Example 4.6
Probabilistic I
Time Estimates
A F K
Activity B
Most Start C G Finish
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic
(a) (m) (b)
B D H J
7 8 15
Example 4.6
Probabilistic I
Time Estimates
A F K
Activity B
(a) (m) (b)
B D H J
7 8 15
7 + 4(8) + 15 E
te = = 9 weeks
6
Example 4.6
Probabilistic I
Time Estimates
A F K
Activity B
(a) (m) (b)
B D H J
7 8 15
7 + 4(8) + 15 E
te = = 9 weeks
6
( 15 - 7
)
2
σ 2
= = 1.78
6
Example 4.6
Time Estimates (wk) Activity Statistics
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
Activity (a) (m) (b) Time (te ) (σ 2 )
Example 4.6
Time Estimates (wk) Activity Statistics
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance
Activity (a) (m) (b) Time (te ) (σ 2 )
A 11 12 13 12 0.11
B 7 8 15 9 1.78
C 5 10 15 10 2.78
D 8 9 16 10 1.78
E 14 25 30 24 7.11
F 6 9 18 10 4.00
G 25 36 41 35 7.11
H 35 40 45 40 2.78
I 10 13 28 15 9.00
J 1 2 15 4 5.44
K 5 6 7 6 0.11
Example 4.6
Probabilities
Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K
T = 72 days TE = 69 days
Example 4.7
Probabilities
T –TE
σ 2
= Σ (variances of activities) z =
σ 2
Example 4.7
Probabilities
T – TE
σ 2
σ 2
σ 2
= 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89
Example 4.7
Probabilities
T – TE
σ 2
σ 2
σ 2
= 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89
72 – 69
z=
11.89
Example 4.7
Probabilities
T – TE
σ 2
σ 2
σ 2
= 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89
72 – 69
z= = 0.87
11.89
Example 4.7
Probabilities
T – TE
σ 2
σ 2
σ 2
= 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89
72 – 69 From Appendix 2
z= = 0.87 Pz = .8078 ≈ .81
11.89
Example 4.7
Probabilities
Normal distribution:
Critical Path
Length of = B - D - H - J - K= 69 weeks;
Mean
critical path σ = 3.45 weeks
Probability of T - TEof
σ 2
=Σ (variances
meeting the of activities) Probability
z exceeding
= 72
weeks is σ
schedule is 2
0.8078 0.1922
σ 2
= 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89
72 - 69 69 72
z= = 0.87
11.89 Project duration (weeks)
Figure 4.12
Example 4.7
Probabilities
Path = A - C - G - J - K
T – TE
σ 2
σ 2
σ 2
= 0.11 + 2.78 + 7.11 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 15.55
72 – 67 From Appendix 2
z= = 1.27 Pz = .8980 ≈ .90
15.55
Example 4.7
I
A F K
Start C G Finish
B D H J
Activity Duration Earliest Start Latest Start Slack
C 10 16 14 –2
G 35 26 24 –2
J 4 61 59 –2
K 6 65 63 –2
D 10 10 9 –1
H 40 20 19 –1
E 24 10 35 25
I 15 16 48 32
F 10 16 53 37
Table 4.2
Project Life Cycle
Project Life Cycle
Resource requirements
Start Finish
Time
Project Life Cycle
Definition Planning Execution Close out
and
organization
Resource requirements
Figure 4.13 Start Finish

Time
Solved Problem 1
A D
4 6
G
4
Finish
B E
Start
7 3
H
3
C F
5 11
Figure 4.14
Solved Problem 2
D Finish
A E
Start C G
Figure 4.15(a)
Solved Problem 2
D
1 Finish
A Dummy
G
Start 3
E
B C
F
2 F
Figure 4.15(b)
Solved Problem 2
D
4.0 16.0
Finish
8.0 20.0
12.0
A E
0.0 4.0 9.0 15.5
4.0 8.0 9.0 15.5
4.0 6.5
C
Start 5.5 9.0
5.5 9.0
3.5
B G
0.0 5.5 15.5 20.0
0.0 5.5 15.5 20.0
5.5 4.5
F
5.5 14.5
6.5 15.5
9.0 Figure 4.16
Solved Problem 2
D
4.0 16.0
Finish
8.0 20.0
12.0
ES EF
A E
0.0 4.0 LS LF 9.0 15.5
4.0 8.0 9.0 15.5
4.0 6.5
C 0 4
Start 5.5 9.0
5.5
3.5
49.0 8 1
B
A G
0.0 5.5 15.5 20.0
0.0 5.5 15.5 20.0
5.5 4.5
Start
F
5.5 14.5
6.5 15.5
9.0 Figure 4.16

Chap 04

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Chapter 4 -

S precedes T, which precedes U.

S and T must be completed before U can be started.

T and U cannot begin until S has been completed.

U and V cannot begin until both S and T have been

U cannot begin until both S and T have been completed;

T and U cannot begin until S has been completed; V

support staff, maintenance, and security.

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

support staff, maintenance, and security. A

Earliest start time

Figure 4.10 Time (weeks)

7000 — Crash cost (CC)

0— Normal cost (NC)

7000 — Crash cost (CC)

Linear cost assumption

0— Normal cost (NC)

7000 — Crash cost (CC)

Linear cost assumption

0— Normal cost (NC)

A 12 $ 12,000 11 $ 13,000 1 $ 1,000

Total cost = $2,624,000

Total cost = $2,624,000

Total cost = $2,624,000

Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks

Total cost = $2,624,000

Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks

Total cost = $2,624,000

Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 66 weeks

Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000

Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 66 weeks

A-I-K: 33 weeks B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks

Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000

Crash Activity J by 3 weeks @ $1,000/week

A-I-K: 33 weeks B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeks

Total cost = $2,624,000C $2,543,000