BAYESIAN NETWORK (CREATING

AND IMPLEMENTATION)
CREATING A BAYESIAN NETWORK
• Graph structure
• Net shell
• Conditional probability distribution (CPD)
• Inference
• Marginal distribution
APPLICATION EXAMPLE
EMERGRNCY COOLANT INJECTION (ECI)
ECI

OR

Injection line Pump Suction line

AND AND OR

MV1 MV3 Valve V1

MV2 Pipe A Tank

Pipe B
GRAPH STRUCTURE
• Node numbering

• Create adjacency matrix

MV1 MV2 MV3 INJ PS_A PS_B PU TA V1 SL ECI

GRAPH STRUCTURE – Cont.
• Pre-processing
NET SHELL
• Size of the node: Number of states for each component
• Type of the node: Discrete or continuous
CPD
• Define the probability distribution of a node given its parents
• Injection line: MV1 MV2 MV3 P(Inj=F) P(Inj=T)
F F F 1 0
T F F 0 1
F T F 0 1
T T F 0 1
F F T 0 1
T F T 0 1
F T T 0 1
T T T 0 1

• Pump: PS_A PS_B P(Pu=F) P(Pu=T)

F F 1 0
T F 0 1
F T 0 1
T T 0 1
CPD – Cont.
• Suction line: TA V1 P(Sl=F) P(Sl=T)
F F 1 0
T F 1 0
F T 1 0
T T 0 1

• ECI: INJ PU SL P(ECI=F) P(ECI=T)

F F F 1 0
T F F 1 0
F T F 1 0
T T F 1 0
F F T 1 0
T F T 1 0
F T T 1 0
T T T 0 1
CPD – Cont.
• Root nodes:
P(=F) P(=T)
MV1 0.001 0.999
MV2 0.001 0.999
MV3 0.002 0.998
PS_A 0.0005 0.9995
PS_B 0.001 0.999
Tank 0.003 0.997
V1 0.001 0.999
CPD – Cont.
• MATLAB script cpmmand:
INFERENCE
• Mathematical basics: C

A B

Pr 𝐶 = 𝐹 = ෍ ෍ Pr 𝐴 = 𝑎, 𝐵 = 𝑏, 𝐶 = 𝐹 = Pr 𝐴 = 𝐹, 𝐵 = 𝐹, 𝐶 = 𝐹 + Pr 𝐴 = 𝑇, 𝐵 = 𝐹, 𝐶 = 𝐹 + ⋯
𝑎 𝑏
Where Pr 𝐴 = 𝑇, 𝐵 = 𝐹, 𝐶 = 𝐹 = Pr 𝐴 = 𝑇 . Pr 𝐵 = 𝐹 𝐴 = 𝑇 . Pr(𝐶 = 𝐹|𝐴 = 𝑇, 𝐵 = 𝐹) , …
MARGINAL DISTRIBUTION
• Defining the evidence