Energy and Trade: India’s Perspective

Amit Gautam
Institute of Management Studies
Banaras Hindu University
 Indian Economy
GDP $3.202 trillion (nominal; 2020 est.)
$12.363 trillion (PPP; 2020 est.)

GDP rank: 5th (nominal; 2019), 3rd (PPP; 2019)

GDP growth: 4.7% (Q3; 2019-20)

GDP per capita: $2,338 (nominal; 2020 est.)

$9,027 (PPP; 2020 est.)

Population: 1.35 billion (2020)

GDP per capita rank:139th (nominal; 2019) & 119th (PPP; 2018)
GDP by sector Agriculture: 15.4%Industry:
23%Services: 61.5%(2019)
GDP by component: Household consumption:
59.1% Government consumption: 11.5%
Investment in fixed capital: 28.5% Investment in
inventories: 3.9%

Inflation (CPI)
7.6% (January 2019)
4.1% (2020 est.)
Exports $330 billion (2018–19) Export goods

Agricultural products 12.8%

Fuels and mining products 13.8%
Manufactured products 70.5%
Others 2.9%

Main export partners:

Arab League 17.37%
European Union 17.34%
United States 15.88%
ASEAN 11.38%
China 5.08%
Other 26.11%
Imports $514 billion (2018–19) Import Goods
Agricultural products 8.1%
Fuels and mining products 30%
Manufactured products 51.7%
Other 10.2%

Main import partners

Arab League 19.88%
China 13.68%
ASEAN 11.53%
European Union 11.35%
United States 6.92%
Other 27.4%
FDI stock
Inward: $386.35 billion
Outward: $166.19 billion
(2018)

Budget balance
−3.4% (of GDP) (2018-19)
 Indian Energy Scenario
Installed capacity 368.79 GW
Share of fossil energy 79.8% (Coal, Gas & Crude
Oil)– Causes Pollution

Share of renewable energy 17.3% (Hydro, Solar &

Wind) Dependency on Import, Toxic, natural
Fauna and flora, climatic disturbances etc.

Share of Nuclear Energy: 2.5 % (Waste disposal)

 Global Perspective
• The global renewable energy market was
valued at $928.0 Billion in 2017 against $5.7
Trillion of Non renewables in 2019, and is
expected to reach $1.512.3 Trillion by 2025.

• 45% China’s contribution to global renewables

growth.
The energy transition framework
 Concerns for India
• Heavy Import of fossil fuels (Choking of ports)
• Drain of foreign exchange reserves
• Impact on economy-Inflation
• Geo Political Scenario
Share of fossil fuel imports in all merchandise imports
 The forces of change
• Funding patterns (Budget 2020-provisions for
Green Bond in International Markets like
Japan..)
• International Sovereign wealth funds
• Declining cost (Government Support)
Since 2010, the average cost of electricity from solar PV and
wind energy has fallen by 73% and 22% respectively
The cost of lithium-ion batteries, which are used in electric
vehicles, has fallen by 80% since 2010.
 The forces of change
• Pollution and climate change
Air pollution kills 7 million people every year, making it the fourth largest cause
of death.
Increase in the global average temperature by 2°C
• Renewable energy targets
57 countries have developed plans to decarbonize their electricity sector
completely, and 179 have set national or state renewable energy targets.

Lack of oil and gas reserves and wish to be less dependent on energy imports

• Technological innovation
• Corporate and investor action
• Public opinion
Impact of the energy transition on selected countries
United States:
Shale revolution and Crude Oil Prices.
(OPEC & US)

It became a net exporter of natural gas in 2017

and is projected to become a net oil exporter
early in the 2020s. (Gone are the days of seven
sisters)
 China
• It is the biggest location for renewable energy
investment, accounting for more than 45% of
the global total in 2017. (Three Gorges Dam &
Yarlung Tsangpo)

• Currently, it remains highly dependent on oil

imports which have been growing steadily.
(CPEC investments of $80 Billion.)
 India
• India has been among the fastest-growing economies in the
world in the last few years, lifting millions out of poverty.

• It is projected to have the world’s largest population by

2024 and is poised to overtake China as the world’s largest
energy growth market by the end of the 2020s.

• Target of 175 GW of renewables by 2022.

• This represents a massive increase, considering that India’s

total installed power generation capacity in 2018 was only
346 GW.47
Path Ahead
 Path Ahead
Hydropower is the key…Great Himalayas…
 Path Ahead

Hydropower is the key…Great Himalayas…

Population Control (Leave Australia & Brazil Model)

 Path Ahead

Hydropower is the key…Great Himalayas…

Population Control (Leave Australia & Brazil Model)

Stop sending junk messages…

Thank You !!