TRAVEL TIME

RELIABILITY
Transportation scenario in
Mumbai
 Over 88% travellers use public transport
in Mumbai
 Local train being life line and back bone of
the city
 Many other public transport service like
buses, autos, taxis, metro and rails are
also used to travel from home to work and
vice versa.
TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY

A formal definition for travel time

reliability is: the consistency or
dependability in travel times, as
measured from day-to-day and/or
across different times of the day.
IMPORTANCE OF STUDY

 Travel time reliability is significant to many

transportation system users, whether they are vehicle
drivers, transit riders, freight shippers, or even air
travelers
 Personal and business travelers value reliability because
it allows them to make better use of their own time.
 Shippers and freight carriers require predictable travel
times to remain competitive.
 Reliability is a valuable service that can be provided on
privately-financed or privately operated highways
 Traffic professionals recognize the importance of travel
time reliability because it better quantifies the benefits of
traffic management and operation activities than simple
averages.
SELECTED BUS ROUTE

 KALYAN STATION/DEPOT TO
VASHI DEPOT
 SERVICE PROVIDER :- NAVI
MUMBAI MUNICIPAL
TRANSPORT (NMMT)
 ROUTE CODE : 60
 ROUTE LENGTH : 31.1 KMS
 TOTAL STOPS : 58 NOS
 FREQUENCY : 18 minutes
WHY THIS ROUTE ?

 Connects two important cities i.e. Kalyan and Vashi

 Provides access to major portion of commuters.

 Provides alternate and easy route.

 Covers other important cities like dombivli, turbhe,

mahape, etc.

 Only bus service having GPS facilities.

Objective of study

 To carry out BASIC RELIABILITY study with various reliability

measures such as PLANNING TIME, PLANNING TIME INDEX,
BUFFER TIME, BUFFER INDEX, etc.

 Study of land use, geometric condition, etc on reliability.

 To carry out statistical as well as clustering analysis.

Methodology
Data analysis

 20 important stops were identified.

 19 segments were formed.
 Travel time between these segments were calculated and were
normalised for per kilometre.
 Travel time data was classified according to weekday and
weekend.
 All 19 segments were divided as per land use and according to
variation in ATT,SD, and CV.
 Basic reliability analysis, statistical analysis and clustering
analysis was carried out on acquired data.
1. Basic reliability analysis

 Various reliability measures were calculated and represented in

tabular as well as graphical format.

 Comparative study can be done to find similarities and

differences on buffer measures on weekday and weekend.

 Variation in buffer measures due to land use was also studied.

Land use classification
60 UP
SEG NO SEG NAME ROUTE DISTANCE (KM) LAND USE
1 VASHI STN TO APMC 60 UP 0.8 COMMERCIAL
2 APMC TO SANPADA STN 60 UP 1.5 MIXED
3 SANPADA STN TO TURBHE NAKA 60 UP 2.4 MIXED
4 TURBHE NAKA TO DAMBAR PLANT 60 UP 2.8 INDUSTRIAL
5 DAMBAR PLANT TO SHALIMAR 60 UP 3.1 INDUSTRIAL
6 SHALIMAR TO PAVAN INDUSTRIES 60 UP 1.4 INDUSTRIAL
7 PAVAN INDUSTRIES TO NELCO 60 UP 2.4 INDUSTRIAL
8 NELCO TO MAHAPE JUNCTION 60 UP 1.2 INDUSTRIAL
9 MAHAPE JUNCTION TO L & T 60 UP 1.5 INDUSTRIAL
10 L & T TO CIDCO WATER SUPPLY 60 UP 2.0 INDUSTRIAL
11 CIDCO WATER SUPPLY TO PUNJAB POOJA HOTEL 60 UP 1.1 INDUSTRIAL
12 PUNJAB POOJA HOTEL TO KALYAN FATA 60 UP 1.1 MIXED
13 KALYAN FATA TO KHIDKALI MANDIR 60 UP 1.3 RESIDENTIAL
14 KHIDKALI MANDIR TO LODHA HEAVENS 60 UP 1.2 RESIDENTIAL
15 LODHA HEAVENS TO MANPADA PETROL PUMP 60 UP 2.1 MIXED
16 MANPADA PETROL PUMP TO VICCO NAKA 60 UP 2.8 MIXED
17 VICCO NAKA TO NETAVLI 60 UP 1.8 RESIDENTIAL
18 NETAVLI TO BAIL BAZAAR 60 UP 1.2 RESIDENTIAL
19 BAIL BAZAAR TO KALYAN STN 60 UP 1.0 MIXED
SAMPLE CALCULATIONS AND GRAPHS
95TH PERCENTILE TRAVEL TIME Buff er Time (BT)- Buff er Time Index (BTI)
(minutes/km) (minutes) 60.00
6.00 50.00
1.60 40.00
4.00 1.20 30.00
0.80 20.00
2.00
0.40 10.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
AM AM AM AM AM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM
-7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10
M M M M PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM M
6A 7A 8A 9AM 0AM 1A 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P
1 1

Average Travel time- Standard Deviation (SD) Coeffi cient of Variation (CV)
average travel time (minute/km)

(minutes) 1.20 0.35

1.00 0.30
3.00 0.25
0.80
2.00 0.20
1.00 0.60
0.15
0.00 0.40 0.10
AM 9AM 1AM 1PM 3PM 5PM 7PM 9PM 0.20 0.05
-7 - -1
- - - - -
M M PM PM PM PM PM 0.00 0.00
A A M
6 8 A 12 2 4 6 8
10

hour of tje day

2. Statistical analysis

 Best fit analysis of travel time data

 Easy fit tool was used
 Generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters were tabulated to
study.
 Segments were classified according to variation in ATT as high
medium and low and thus, their differences were studied.
 Land use-wise best fit analysis was also carried out.
SE G NO Average Travel time-(minutes) Standard Deviation (SD) Coefficient of Variation (CV)
1 7.38 5.184 0.70
2 3.24 0.966 0.29
3 3.61 0.457 0.13
4 2.98 2.982 0.14
5 3.80 0.601 0.15
6 2.96 0.597 0.20
7 3.67 1.235 0.32
8 5.38 1.371 0.25
9 1.59 0.583 0.37
10 1.96 0.315 0.16
11 1.10 0.353 0.31
12 4.80 1.043 0.21
13 3.17 0.540 0.17
14 2.41 0.562 0.23
15 4.04 0.557 0.14
16 2.61 0.481 0.18
17 3.41 0.377 0.11
18 3.06 0.489 0.16
19 3.50 0.823 0.24
 60 UP
  TIME K s µ
WEEKDAY 8AM-9AM 0.17 3.21 4.02
  7PM-8PM 0.08 4.86 4.61
ATT
WEEKEND 8AM-9AM 0.08 5.33 5.35
  7PM-8PM 0.44 3.83 5.62
WEEKDAY 12PM-2PM 0.26 0.99 3.54
  4PM-6PM 0.29 1.10 3.32
HIGH SD
WEEKEND 8AM-10AM 0.05 0.72 3.20
  6PM-8PM -0.39 0.53 2.05
WEEKDAY 6AM-8AM 0.05 0.62 1.55
         
CV
WEEKEND 6AM-8AM -0.08 0.55 1.32
  6PM-8PM -0.08 0.55 1.32

WEEKDAY 8AM-10AM -0.36 0.47 3.35

ATT   6PM-8PM -0.45 0.44 3.52
WEEKEND 6AM-8AM -0.17 0.39 3.27
  6PM-8PM 0.11 0.35 3.35

WEEKDAY 8AM-10AM -0.02 0.78 2.94

MEDIUM
SD   6PM-8PM 0.51 0.59 2.82
WEEKEND 12PM-2PM -0.53 0.62 2.84
  4PM-6PM 0.59 0.43 2.74
WEEKDAY 12PM-2PM 0.21 0.43 2.63
  6PM-8PM 0.07 0.54 2.63
CV
WEEKEND 6AM-8AM -0.21 0.42 2.83
  12PM-2PM 0.15 0.36 2.71
WEEKDAY 6AM-8AM 0.05 0.62 1.55
         
ATT
WEEKEND 6AM-8AM -0.08 0.55 1.32
  2PM-4PM -0.72 0.46 1.48
WEEKDAY 6AM-8AM -0.48 0.36 1.84
  12PM-2PM -0.14 0.32 1.94
LOW SD
WEEKEND 6AM-8AM -0.23 0.27 1.96
  6PM-8PM -0.27 0.31 1.79
WEEKDAY 6AM-8AM 0.1 0.26 2.81
  2PM-4PM -0.02 0.33 2.69
CV
WEEKEND 6AM-8AM 0.01 0.35 2.87
  6PM-8PM -0.47 0.38 2.64
3. Clustering analysis

 Segment based travel time data for different hours of the day
and week of the day is considered for k-means clustering.
 Land use classification was used for purpose of analysis.
 STATISTICA was used for plotting scatter graphs.
 Clustering analysis was performed for four different cases of a
number of clusters, namely, 2-clusters, 3-clusters, 4-clusters, and
5-clusters.
 Scatter diagrams are plotted considering the CV as the
dependent variable, classification number as a categorical
variable and all other potential reliability indicators (ATT, BT, PT,
BTI, PTI, and TTI) as independent variables.
CV v/s ATT
Industrial Residential
segments Mixed segments segments
CV v/s BT

Industrial Residential
segment Mixed segment segments
  INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
  CLUSTER 1 CLUSTER 2
CV 0-0.4 >0.4
ATT 0-1.5 >1.5
CV 0-0.4 0-0.6
BT 0-0.2 >0.2
  MIXED SEGMENTS
  CLUSTER 1 CLUSTER 2
     
CV 0-0.6 >0.6
ATT 0-0.7 >0.5
CV 0-0.6 >0.6
BT 0-6 >6
  RESIDENTIAL SEGMENTS
  CLUSTER 1 CLUSTER 2
CV 0-0.4 >0.4
ATT 2 TO 4 >4
CV 0-0.4 >0.4
BT 0 TO 4 >4
Results and conclusion

 Values of buffer measures were found to be low in industrial

segments while higher in residential and mixed segment.
 Hourly movement of traffic was observed to be from residential
to industrial during morning and vice versa during evening.
 During the weekend ATT variation was observed to be very less
throughout the day in the industrial segments as there was very
little usage of the segment on weekends.
 Similar results were also depicted in statistical as well as
clustering analysis.
 2-cluster was selected as it depicted proper trend and buffer time
was selected as effective reliability measure.
Future scope

 To carry out user perspective study.

 Scheduled reliability can be studied to check on time

performance of the route.

 multilinear regression model can be developed considering

various factors such as delay, intersection density, land use, road
way condition, type of carriage way, etc.
THANK YOU