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Demand Estimation

– Wrist Watches in
India .
By,
Vrishali Sinha.
Market Potential and
Performance (The Gap)
Year Population Wrist Watch
2001 1 , 02 , 70 , 15 , 248 19454741 . 8

2002 1040777252 22372953 . 1

2003 1054723668 25728896 . 1

2004 1068856965 29588230 . 5

2005 1083179648 34026465

2006 1097694255 39130434 . 8

2007 1112403358 45000000

2008 1127309563 51750000

2009 1142415511 59512500

2010 1157723879 68439375


Universal Demand at
price zero is 212 million..
HHT HI('000) Avg.AHI HH(million) WWPen Potential

Deprived <90 45000 114.4 0.001 114.2856

Aspirers 91-200 145000 75 0.01 74.25

LMC 201-500 350000 22.2 0.2 17.76

MMC 501-1,000 750000 6.1 0.25 4.575

UMC 1,001-2,000 1500000 2.4 0.4 1.44

Rich 2,001+ 5500000 1.4 0.9 0.14

221.5 212.4506
The penetration of wrist watches matures
when P/I ratio is less than 1%.
 Price Rs 1500 Potential 23915000

HHT HI('000) Avg.AHI HH(million) WWPen P/I *100 Potential(m


n)
Deprived <90 45000 114.4 0.001 3.333333 0

Aspirers 91-200 145000 75 0.01 1.034483 0

LMC 201-500 350000 22.2 0.2 0.428571 17.76

MMC 501-1,000 750000 6.1 0.25 0.2 4.575

UMC 1,001-2,000 1500000 2.4 0.4 0.1 1.44

Rich 2,001+ 5500000 1.4 0.9 0.027273 0.14

221 . 5 23 . 915
The penetration of wrist watches matures
when P/I ratio is less than 1%.
 Price Rs 500 Potential 98165000

HHT HI('000) Avg.AHI HH(million) WWPen P/I *100 Potential(m


n)
Deprived <90 45000 114.4 0.001 1.111111 0

Aspirers 91-200 145000 75 0.01 0.344828 74.25

LMC 201-500 350000 22.2 0.2 0.142857 17.76

MMC 501-1,000 750000 6.1 0.25 0.066667 4.575

UMC 1,001-2,000 1500000 2.4 0.4 0.033333 1.44

Rich 2,001+ 5500000 1.4 0.9 0.009091 0.14

221 . 5 98 . 165
Price Elasticity of Demand..

Slope = -4.45647E-05

Curve Fitting – Power Relationship
between price and demand (best fit).
Market Segmentation
Price
Mass, Value, Middle, Premium.

Other Type of watches.


mechanical and automatic watches, quartz watches

 ladies watches, children’s watches and gent’s watches


 Sports, daily wear, fashion, jewelry ,luxury


The price of the watches is a major motive in the minds of the


customer.
Premium and luxury range, appeal to only a small category of

the watch market in India.



Facts..
annual market size is around USD 195
million(40 to 45 million pieces annually)
organized sector alone contributes up to 30
percent of this figure
around 20 to 25 watches are being sold for
every 1000 citizens, developed market
average 250 per 1000
average growth in the size of the market is
slated to be around 10 -15 percent per year.
90 percent of the watches are from the lower
price ranges (below Rs 1500)

Segmentation by Price..
1. Mass(<500)
Value Rs 300 Crore

Manufacturer – Local, grey market, Chinese.

2. Value (500 – 1000)

Value Rs 1200 Crore

Manufacturer – Maxima, HMT

3. Middle (1000- 5000)

Value 938 Crore

Manufacturer –Titan, Citizen, Timex, Swatch, Esprit

4. Premium(>5000)

Value – 370 Crore

Manufacturer - Titan Insignia, Nebula, Tanishq

Swiss Brands – Tissot, Rolex, Omega

Fashion Brands – Fossil, Calvin Klein, Giordano, Esprit


Census Data 2001
Age Groups Persons Males Females

6 years and below 163,819,614 84,999,203 78,820,411

Proportion to total population 15.9 16.0 15.9


(%)
7 to 14 years 199,791,198 104,488,119 95,303,079

Proportion to total population 19.4 19.6 19.2


(%)
15 to 59 years 585,638,723 303,400,561 282,238,162

Proportion to total population 56.9 57.0 56.9


(%)
60 years and above 76,622,321 37,768,327 38,853,994

Proportion to total population 7.5 7.1 7.8


(%)
Age Not Stated 2,738,472 1,500,562 1,237,910

Proportion to total population 0.3 0.3 0.3


(%)
Trend in Asian Market
Country Value ( Euro
mn )
China 1625

Japan 1175

Singapore 436

Taiwan 200

Thailand 230

India 135
Popularity of Brands in
India
Brands
Popularity
Titan 60%

HMT 16%

Timex 17%

Citizen 10%

Casio 6%
Thank You .