Statistical Process

Control (SPC)

Stephen R. Lawrence
Assoc. Prof. of Operations Mgmt
Stephen.Lawrence@colorado.edu
Leeds.colorado.edu/faculty/lawrence

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Process Control Tools

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Process Control Tools

 Process tools assess conditions in existing

processes to detect problems that require
intervention in order to regain lost control.

Check sheets Pareto analysis

Scatter Plots Histograms
Run Charts Control charts
Cause & effect diagrams

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 Check Sheets
Check sheets explore what and where
an event of interest is occurring.

Attribute Check Sheet

Order Types 7am-9am 9am-11am 11am-1pm 1pm-3pm 3pm-5-pm

Emergency

Nonemergency

Rework

Safety Stock

Prototype Order

Other

27 15 19 20 28 4
Run Charts
measurement

time
Look for patterns and trends…

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 SCATTERPLOTS
x x x
x x x xx
x x x
x xx x x x
x x xx x
Variable A

xx x x x
x xx x x x
xx xx x x
x xx xxx x x x

x x
x xx xx
xx x
xx
x
Larger values of
x
xx
xxx xx
xxx x x xx
x x
variable A appear to
x
x
x xx
x x xx
xx x
x
x be associated with
x
x
xx
xxx
xxx x
xx
x
xx xxx
x
x larger values of
x
x x
x
x
x
xx
xx
x x x variable B.
x x xx x x
xx x x x

Variable B
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 HISTOGRAMS
A statistical tool used to show the extent
and type of variance within the system.
Frequency of Occurrences

Outcome 7
 PARETO ANALYSIS
A method for identifying and separating
the vital few from the trivial many.
Percentage of Occurrences

A
B
C
D
EF
G H I J

Factor
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 CAUSE & EFFECT DIAGRAMS

Inspection CPU Chip Pins not

Assigned
Received
Classification Defective
Error Defective
Damaged Pins
in storage
BAD
CPU
Condition Procedures
and Methods
Maintenance Speed
Training

Equipment Employees

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Example:

Rogue River
Adventures
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Process Variation

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Deming’s Theory of Variance
 Variation causes many problems for most processes
 Causes of variation are either “common” or “special”
 Variation can be either “controlled” or “uncontrolled”
 Management is responsible for most variation

Categories of Variation

Common Cause Special Cause

Controlled Variation Management Employee

Uncontrolled Variation Management Management

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 Causes of Variation
What prevents perfection? Process variation...

Natural Causes Assignable Causes

• Inherent to process  Exogenous to process

• Random  Not random
•
 Controllable
Cannot be controlled
 Preventable
• Cannot be prevented  Examples
• Examples  tool wear
– weather  “Monday” effect
– accuracy of measurements  poor maintenance
– capability of machine

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Specification vs. Variation
 Product specification
 desired range of product attribute
 part of product design
 length, weight, thickness, color, ...
 nominal specification
 upper and lower specification limits
 Process variability
 inherent variation in processes
 limits what can actually be achieved
 defines and limits process capability
 Process may not be capable of meeting
specification!

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Process Capability

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Process Capability
LSL Spec USL Process variation

Capable process

(Very) capable process

Process not capable

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Process Capability
 Measure of capability of process to meet (fall within)
specification limits
 Take “width” of process variation as 6σ
 If 6σ < (USL - LSL), then at least 99.7% of output of
process will fall within specification limits

LSL Spec USL

99.7% 6σ

3σ

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Variation -- RazorBlade

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Process Capability Ratio

Define Process Capability Ratio Cp as

USL − LSL
Cp =
6σ
 If Cp > 1.0, process is... capable
 If Cp < 1.0, process is... not capable

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Process Capability -- Example
A manufacturer of granola bars has a weight specification
2 ounces plus or minus 0.05 ounces. If the standard deviation
of the bar-making machine is 0.02 ounces, is the process capable?

USL = 2 + 0.05 = 2.05 ounces

LSL = 2 - 0.05 = 1.95 ounces

Cp = (USL - LSL) / 6σ
= (2.05 - 1.95) / 6(0.02)
= 0.1 / 0.12
= 0.85

Therefore, the process is not capable! 20

Process Centering
LSL Spec USL

Capable and centered

Capable, but not centered

Not capable, and

not centered

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Process Centering -- Example
For the granola bar manufacturer, if the process is
incorrectly centered at 2.05 instead of 2.00 ounces, what
fraction of bars will be out of specification?

LSL=1.95 2.0 USL=2.05

Out of spec!

50% of production will be out of specification!

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 Process Capability Index Cpk

Std dev σ

Mean µ
 µ − LSL USL − µ 
C pk = min  , 
 3σ 3σ 
 If Cpk > 1.0, process is... Centered & capable
 If Cpk < 1.0, process is... Not centered &/or not capable

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Cpk Example 1
A manufacturer of granola bars has a weight specification
2 ounces plus or minus 0.05 ounces. If the standard deviation
of the bar-making machine is σ = 0.02 ounces and the
process mean is µ = 2.01, what is the process capability
index?
USL = 2.05 oz LSL = 1.95 ounces

Cpk = min[(µ -LSL) / 3σ , (USL- µ ) / 3σ ]

= min[(2.01–1.95) / 0.06 , (2.05 – 2.01) / 0.06 ]
= min[1.0 , 0.67 ]
= 0.67
Therefore, the process is not capable and/or not centered !
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Cpk Example 2

Venture Electronics manufactures a line of MP3 audio players.

One of the components manufactured by Venture and used in
its players has a nominal output voltage of 8.0 volts.
Specifications allow for a variation of plus or minus 0.6 volts.
An analysis of current production shows that mean output
voltage for the component is 8.054 volts with a standard
deviation of 0.192 volts. Is the process "capable: of producing
components that meet specification? What fraction of
components will fall outside of specification? What can
management do to improve this fraction?

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Process
Control Charts

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Process Control Charts
Statistical technique for tracking a process
and
determining if it is going “out to control”
 Establish capability of process under normal
conditions
 Use normal process as benchmark to statistically
identify abnormal process behavior
 Correct process when signs of abnormal
performance first begin to appear
 Control the process rather than inspect the product!

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Process Control Charts

Upper Spec Limit

Upper Control Limit

6σ
Target Spec

3σ

Lower Control Limit

Lower Spec Limit

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 Process Control Charts
Look for
special
In control Out of control ! cause !
Back in
UCL
control!

Target

LCL

Time
Samples Natural variation
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When to Take Action
 A single point goes beyond control limits
(above or below)
 Two consecutive points are near the same limit
(above or below)
 A run of 5 points above or below the process mean
 Five or more points trending toward either limit
 A sharp change in level
 Other erratic behavior

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Samples vs. Population

Sample
Distribution

Population
Distribution

Mean
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Types of Control Charts

 Attribute control charts

 Monitors frequency (proportion) of defectives
 p - charts
 Defects control charts
 Monitors number (count) of defects per unit
 c – charts
 Variable control charts
 Monitors continuous variables
 x-bar and R charts
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1. Attribute Control Charts

 p - charts
 Estimate and control the frequency of defects
in a population
 Examples
 Invoices with error s (accounting)
 Incorrect account numbers (banking)
 Mal-shaped pretzels (food processing)
 Defective components (electronics)
 Any product with “good/not good” distinctions
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Using p-charts

 Find long-run proportion defective (p-bar)

when the process is in control.
 Select a standard sample size n
 Determine control limits

UCL = p + zσ p p (1 − p )
σp =
LCL = p + zσ p n
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p-chart Example

Chic Clothing is an upscale mail order clothing

company selling merchandise to successful
business women. The company sends out
thousands of orders five days a week. In order to
monitor the accuracy of its order fulfillment
process, 200 orders are carefully checked every
day for errors. Initial data were collected for 24
days when the order fulfillment process was
thought to be "in control." The average percent
defective was found to be 5.94%.
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2. Defect Control Charts
 c-charts
 Estimate & control the number of defects per unit
 Examples
 Defects per square yard of fabric
 Crimes in a neighborhood
 Potholes per mile of road
 Bad bytes per packet
 Most often used with continuous process (vs. batch)

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Using c-charts

 Find long-run proportion defective (c-bar)

when the process is in control.
 Determine control limits

UCL = c + zσ c
σc = c
LCL = c + zσ c

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2. c-chart Example

Dave's is a restaurant chain that employs independent

evaluators to visit its restaurants as secret shoppers to
the asses the quality of service. The company evaluates
restaurants in two categories, food quality, and service
(promptness, order accuracy, courtesy, friendliness,
etc.) The evaluator considers not only his/her order
experiences, but also evaluations throughout the
restaurant. Initial surveys find that the total number of
service defects per survey is 7.3 when a restaurant is
operating normally.
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3. Control Charts for
Variables
 x-bar and R charts
 Monitor the condition or state of continuously
variable processes
 Use to control continuous variables
 Length, weight, hardness, acidity, electrical resistance
 Examples
 Weight of a box of corn flakes (food processing)
 Departmental budget variances (accounting
 Length of wait for service (retailing)
 Thickness of paper leaving a paper-making machine

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x-bar and R charts

 Two things can go wrong

 process mean goes out of control
 process variability goes out of control
 Two control solutions
 X-bar charts for mean
 R charts for variability

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Problems with Continuous
Variables
“Natural”
Process
Distribution Mean not
Centered

Increased
Variability

Target
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Range (R) Chart

 Choose sample size n

 Determine average in-control sample ranges
R-bar where R=max-min
 Construct R-chart with limits:

R = ∑R/n

UCL = D4 R LCL = D3 R

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Mean (x-bar) Chart
 Choose sample size n (same as for R-charts)
 Determine average of in-control sample
means (x-double-bar)
 x-bar = sample mean
 k = number of observations of n samples
 Construct x-bar-chart with limits:

x =∑x/k

UCL = x + A2 R LCL = x − A2 R
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x & R Chart Parameters
n d(2) d(3) A(2) D(3) D(4)
2 1.128 0.853 1.881 0.000 3.269
3 1.693 0.888 1.023 0.000 2.574
4 2.059 0.880 0.729 0.000 2.282
5 2.326 0.864 0.577 0.000 2.114
6 2.534 0.848 0.483 0.000 2.004
7 2.704 0.833 0.419 0.076 1.924
8 2.847 0.820 0.373 0.136 1.864
9 2.970 0.808 0.337 0.184 1.816
10 3.078 0.797 0.308 0.223 1.777
11 3.173 0.787 0.285 0.256 1.744
12 3.258 0.778 0.266 0.284 1.716
16 3.532 0.750 0.212 0.363 1.637
17 3.588 0.744 0.203 0.378 1.622
18 3.640 0.739 0.194 0.391 1.609
19 3.689 0.734 0.187 0.403 1.597
20 3.735 0.729 0.180 0.414 1.586
21 3.778 0.724 0.173 0.425 1.575
22 3.819 0.720 0.167 0.434 1.566
23 3.858 0.716 0.162 0.443 1.557
24 3.895 0.712 0.157 0.452 1.548
25 3.931 0.708 0.153 0.460 1.540

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R and x-bar Chart Example

Resistors for electronic circuits are being

manufactured on a high-speed automated
machine. The machine is set up to produce
resistors of 1,000 ohms each. Fifteen samples of
4 resistors each were taken over a period of time
when the machine was operating normally. The
average range of the samples was found to be R-
bar=21.7 and the average mean of the samples
was x-double-bar=999.1.

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When to Take Action
 A single point goes beyond control limits (above or
below)
 Two consecutive points are near the same limit
(above or below)
 A run of 5 points above or below the process mean
 Five or more points trending toward either limit
 A sharp change in level
 Other statistically erratic behavior

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Control Chart Error Trade-offs
 Setting control limits too tight (e.g., µ ± 2) means
that normal variation will often be mistaken as an
out-of-control condition (Type I error).
 Setting control limits too loose (e.g., µ ± 4)
means that an out-of-control condition will be
mistaken as normal variation (Type II error).
 Using control limits works well to balance Type I
and Type II errors in many circumstances.
 3σ is not sacred -- use judgement.

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Video:

SPC at
Frito Lay

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Statistical
Process
Control
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