Chapter 3

Probability

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 Chapter Outline
• Note 9 Basic Concepts of Probability
• Note 10 Conditional Probability and the
Multiplication Rule
• Note 11 The Addition Rule

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 Note 9

Basic Concepts of Probability

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 Objectives
• How to identify the sample space of a probability
experiment and how to identify simple events
• How to find the probability of the complement of an event
• How to use a tree diagram and Venn Diagram to find
probabilities

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 Introduction
• The principles of probability help to bridge the worlds of
descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.

• Probability can be defined as the chance of an event occurs

• To be specific, it is a numeric value that represents the

likelihood/possibility of a particular event will occur.

• It is the basis of inferential statistics such as predictions

and testing the hypotheses.
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 BASIC Terms
• Probability experiment – an action, or trial, through
which specific results (counts, measurements, or
responses) are obtained.
• Outcome – the result of a single trial in a probability
experiment
• Sample space – the set of all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment
 denoted by S
 can be illustrated by drawing Venn or tree diagram

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 Example

Probability experiment Sample space

Toss a coin Head, tail

Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Answer a true/false question True, false

Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT

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 Probability Experiments
Probability experiment
• An action, or trial, through which specific results (counts,
measurements, or responses) are obtained.
Outcome
• The result of a single trial in a probability experiment.
Sample Space
• The set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment.
Event
• Consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the
sample space.
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 Example: Identifying the Sample
Space of a Probability Experiment

A survey consists of asking people for their blood types

(O, A, B, and AB), including whether they are Rh-
positive or Rh-negative. Determine the number of
outcomes and identify the sample space.

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 Solution: Identifying the Sample
Space of a Probability Experiment
Solution:
There are four blood types: O, A, B, and AB. Each
person is either Rh-positive or Rh-negative.

A tree diagram gives a visual display of the outcomes

by using branches that originate from a starting point.

It can be used to find the number of possible outcomes

in a sample space as well as individual outcomes.

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 Solution: Identifying the Sample
Space of a Probability Experiment
Tree diagram:

The sample space has eight possible outcomes, which

are listed below.
{O+, O– , A+, A–, B+, B–, AB+, AB–}
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 Events
•• Event
  – a subset of the sample space, it may consist of one or more outcomes
 represented by uppercase letters such as A, B, and C.
• An event can be
 Simple – an event consists of a single outcome
• E.g.: Tossing heads and rolling a 3 can be represented as A = { H3 }
• In contrast, the event “tossing heads and rolling an even number” is not
simple  its has 3 possible outcomes: {H2, H4, H6}
 Compound/composite – an even with more than one outcome.
• E.g.: Getting an odd number when a die is rolled, O = {1,3,5}
• The complement of event A is the set of all outcomes in a sample space that
are not included in event A.
 denoted by or

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Sample Space,S= {H1,H2,H3,H4,H5,H6,T1,T2,T3,T4,T5,T6 }
Total sample size, n(S)=12
Event A, A= {H3},n(A)=1
Event B, B= {H2,H4,H6},n(B)=3
Simple Events
Probability Event A, P(A)=n(A)/n(S)=1/12
P(B)=n(B)/n(S)=3/12=0.25

Simple event
• An event that consists of a single
outcome.
 e.g. “Tossing heads and rolling a 3”
A = {H3}

• An event that consists of more than one

outcome is not a simple event.
 e.g. “Tossing heads and rolling an
even number” B ={H2, H4, H6}
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 Example: Identifying Simple
Events
Determine the number of outcomes in each event. Then
decide whether each event is simple or not. Explain
your reasoning.
1. For quality control, you randomly select a machine
part from a batch that has been manufactured that
day. Event A is selecting a specific defective
machine part.
Solution:
Event A has only one outcome: choosing the specific
defective machine part. So, the event is a simple event.
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 Example: Identifying Simple
Events
Determine the number of outcomes in each event. Then
decide whether each event is simple or not. Explain
your reasoning.
2. You roll a six-sided die. Event B is rolling at least
a 4.

Solution:
Event B has three outcomes: rolling a 4, a 5, or a 6.
Because the event has more than one outcome, it is not
simple.

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 CALCULATING Probability
• Once we have a sample space for an experiment, we need to
specify the probability of each event.
• Probability is the measure of how likely the event will occur
• We use the letter “P” to denote probabilities.
• For example, if we toss a coin, we denote the probability that
the coin lands heads by “P(Heads).”
• Notation: If A denotes an event, the probability of event A
occurring is denoted by P(A).

Number of outcomes in A k
P(A)  
Total number of outcomes n
P(A)=n(A)/n(S)
n(S)-Total number of outcomes / total sample space
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 Example: Finding Classical
Probabilities
You roll a six-sided die. Find the probability of each
event.
1. Event A: rolling a 3
2. Event B: rolling a 7
3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5

Solution:
Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

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 Solution: Finding Classical
Probabilities
1. Event A: rolling a 3 Event A = {3}
1
P(rolling a 3)   0.167
6
2. Event B: rolling a 7 Event B= { } (7 is not in
0 the sample space)
P(rolling a 7)   0
6
3. Event C: rolling a number less than 5
Event C = {1, 2, 3, 4}
4
P(rolling a number less than 5)   0.667
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 Range of Probabilities Rule
Range of probabilities rule
• The probability of an event E is between 0 and 1, inclusive.
• 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

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 Example
1. In a statistics class of 42 students, 28 have
volunteered for community service in the past. Find
the probability that a randomly selected student from
this class has volunteered for community service in
0.667
the past.

2. In a group of 50 car owners, 8 own hybrid cars. If

one car owner is selected at random from this group,
what is the probability that this 0.16
car owner owns a
hybrid car?
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 Complementary Events
Complement of event E
• The set of all outcomes in a sample space that are not
included in event E.
• Denoted E ′ (E prime)
• P(E) + P(E ′) = 1
• P(E) = 1 – P(E ′)
• P(E ′) = 1 – P(E)
Refer diagram in slide13,
P(A)=n(A)/n(S)=1/12
A= {H3}, complement A, A’=
{H1,H2,H4,H5,H6,T1,T2,T3,T4,T5,T6}
n(A’)=11
P(A’)=n(A’)/n(S)=11/12 or P(A’)=1-P(A)=1-1/12=11/12

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 Example: Finding the Probability
of the Complement of an Event
Find the probability of randomly selecting a social
networking site user who is not 23 to 35 years old.

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 Solution: Finding the Probability
of the Complement of an Event
•   P(age 23 to 35) = = 0.32.

 
So, the probability that a user is not 23 to 35 years old is
P(age is not 23 to 35) = 1 = 0.68

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 Tree diagram
• A tree diagram is simply a way of representing a
sequence of events.
• It is a visual display of the outcomes from a
probability experiment by using branches that
originate from a starting point.
• Tree diagrams are particularly useful in probability
since they record all possible outcomes in a clear and
uncomplicated manner.

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 Example
• Tree diagram for the experiment of tossing a coin
twice.
Outcomes
H – head
T – tail 2nd toss

1st toss H HH

H
T HT

H TH
T
T TT
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 Example
• Find the sample space for the gender of three children
in a family. (boy or girl?)
3rd child Outcomes

B – boy 2nd child B BBB

G – girl
1st child B G
BBG
B
B BGB
G G BGG
B
B GBB
G
G GBG
B GGB
G
G GGG 26
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 Example: Using a Tree
Diagram
A probability experiment consists of tossing a coin and
spinning the spinner shown. The spinner is equally
likely to land on each number. Use a tree diagram to
find the probability of each event.
1. Event A: tossing a tail and spinning an odd number
2. Event B: tossing a head or
spinning a number greater
than 3

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 Solution: Probability Using a
Tree Diagram
Tree Diagram:
H T

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8

1. Event A = {T1, T3, T5, T7}

4 1
P(tossing a tail and spinning an odd number) =   0.25
16 4
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 Solution: Probability Using a
Tree Diagram
Tree Diagram:
H T

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8

2. Event B = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, H7, H8, T4, T5, T6, T7, T8}
P(tossing a head or spinning 13
=  0.813
a number greater than 3) 16
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 Exercise
1. A gumball machine contains gumballs of five different colors:  36 red, 44
white, 15 blue, 20 green, and 5 orange.  The machine dispenser randomly
selects one gumball.  What is the probability that the gumball selected is:
 green? 0.167
 not green? 0.833
 not orange? 0.958

 orange? 0.042
 not a colour in the flag of Malaysia? 0.208
 red, white, or blue? 0.792
2. A pair of dice are rolled. What is the probability of
 not rolling doubles? 0.833
0.083
 rolling 10 or less?

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 Venn diagram
• The Venn diagram can be used to illustrate the
relationship amongst the events within the sample
space.
• The shaded area shows

A A

Event A Complement of Event A

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 Venn Diagram
• The union of two events represents by A  B
corresponds to event A or B.
• The intersection of two events represents by A  B
corresponds to event A and B.

B A
A B

The union of event A and B The intersection of Event A and B

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 Example 1
The diagrams represent a class of children. G is the set
of girls and F is the set of children who like football.
Decide which diagram has the shading which
represents:
B  girls who like football  

D  girls who dislike football  

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 Football

Example 11 8
5 Hockey
7

In a class there are 8 students who play football and hockey, 7

students who do not play football or hockey, 13 students who
play hockey, and 19 students who play football. A student is
selected at random.
1. Draw a Venn diagram to show the events and the outcomes.
2. How many students are there in the class? 31
3. Find the probability that the selected student is
a) not playing hockey. 0.581
b) playing football or hockey 0.774
c) playing football and hockey 0.258

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