A182 SQQS1013 Note 12 Random Variable

Chapter 4
Random Variable
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Chapter Outline
• Note 12 Random Variable
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Note 12
Random Variable

Objectives
• How to distinguish between discrete random
variables and continuous random variables
• How to construct a discrete probability distribution
and its graph and how to determine if a distribution is
a probability distribution
• How to find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation of a discrete probability distribution
• How to find the expected value of a discrete
probability distribution

Random Variables
Random Variable
• Represents a numerical value associated with each
outcome of a probability distribution.
• Denoted by x
• Examples
 x = Number of sales calls a salesperson makes in
one day.
 x = Hours spent on sales calls in one day.

Random Variables
Discrete Random Variable
• Has a finite or countable number of possible
outcomes that can be listed.
• Example
 x = Number of sales calls a salesperson makes in
one day.
x
0 1 2 3 4 5

Discrete Random Variable
• A random variable with values that can be counted.
• Examples of discrete random variables:

a) Number of houses sold by a developer in a given month.
b) Number of cars rented at a rental shop during a given month.
c) Number of reports received at the police station on a given
day.
d) Number of fish caught on a fishing trip.
• Discrete, maybe the outcome (0,1,2,3,4……..,n)
7
Random Variables
Continuous Random Variable
• Has an uncountable number of possible outcomes,
represented by an interval on the number line.
• Example
 x = Hours spent on sales calls in one day.
0 1 2 3 … 24

Continuous Random Variable
• A random variable that can assume any value
contained in one or more intervals is called a
continuous random variable.
• Examples of continuous random variables,
a) The weight of a person.
b) The time taken to complete a 100 meter dash.
c) The duration of a battery.
d) The height of a building.
Continuous, maybe the outcome (…., 1, 1.01, 1.4, 1.39….)
9
Example 1: Discrete and
Continuous Variables
Determine whether each random variable x is discrete or
continuous. Explain your reasoning.
1. Let x represent the number of Fortune 500 companies
that lost money in the previous year.
Solution:
Discrete random variable (The number of companies
that lost money in the previous year can be counted.)
x
0 1 2 3 … 500

Example 1: Discrete and
Continuous Variables
Determine whether each random variable x is discrete or
continuous. Explain your reasoning.
2. Let x represent the volume of gasoline in a
21-gallon tank.
Solution:
Continuous random variable (The amount of
gasoline in the tank can be any volume between 0
gallons and 21 gallons.)
x
0 1 2 3 … 21

Probability Distribution
• The probability distribution of a discrete random
variable lists
 all the possible values that the random variable can
assume and
 their corresponding probabilities.
• It represents the population in the form of
 mathematical formula or
 table or
 graph
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Discrete Probability
Distributions
Discrete probability distribution
• Lists each possible value the random variable can
assume, together with its probability.
• Must satisfy the following conditions:
In Words In Symbols
1. The probability of each value of 0  P(x)  1
the discrete random variable is
between 0 and 1, inclusive.
2. The sum of all the probabilities ΣP(x) = 1
is 1.
Constructing a Discrete
Let x be a discrete random variable with possible
outcomes x1, x2, … , xn.
1. Make a frequency distribution for the possible
outcomes.
2. Find the sum of the frequencies.
3. Find the probability of each possible outcome by
dividing its frequency by the sum of the frequencies.
4. Check that each probability is between 0 and 1,
inclusive, and that the sum of all the probabilities
is 1.
Example 2: Constructing and
Graphing a Discrete Probability
Distribution
An industrial psychologist administered a personality
inventory test for passive-aggressive traits to 150
employees. Each individual was given a whole number
score from 1 to 5, where 1 is extremely passive and 5 is
extremely aggressive. A score of 3 Score, x Frequency, f
indicated neither trait. The results 1 24
are shown. Construct a probability 2 33
distribution for the random variable 3 42
x. Then graph the distribution using 4 30
a histogram. 5 21

Solution: Constructing and
Distribution
• Divide the frequency of each score by the total
number of individuals in the study to find the
probability for each value of the random variable.
24 33 42
P(1)   0.16 P(2)   0.22 P(3)   0.28
150 150 150
30 21
P(4)   0.20 P(5)   0.14
150 150
• Discrete probability distribution:
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.20 0.14

Distribution
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.20 0.14
This is a valid discrete probability distribution since

1. Each probability is between 0 and 1, inclusive,
0 ≤ P(x) ≤ 1.
2. The sum of the probabilities equals 1,
ΣP(x) = 0.16 + 0.22 + 0.28 + 0.20 + 0.14 = 1.

x 1 2
Distribution
3 4 5
P(x) 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.20 0.14
Because the width of each bar is

one, the area of each bar is equal
to the probability of a particular
outcome. Also, the probability of
an event corresponds to the sum
of the areas of the outcomes
included in the event.
You can see that the distribution is approximately
symmetric.
Example 3: Verifying a
Verify that the distribution for the three-
day forecast and the number of days of
rain is a probability distribution.
Days of Rain, x 0 1 2 3
Probability, P(x) 0.216 0.432 0.288 0.064

Solution: Verifying a
Solution
If the distribution is a probability distribution, then
(1) each probability is between 0 and 1, inclusive,
and (2) the sum of all the probabilities equals 1.

1. Each probability is between 0 and 1.
2. = 0.216 + 0.432 + 0.288 + 0.064 = 1.
Days of Rain, x 0 1 2 3
Probability, P(x) 0.216 0.432 0.288 0.064
Because both conditions are met, the
distribution is a probability distribution.
Example 4: Identifying
Probability Distributions
Determine whether each distribution is a
probability distribution. Explain your
reasoning.
1. x 5 6 7 8
P(x) 0.28 0.21 0.43 0.15
Solution
• Each probability is between 0 and 1, but the sum
of all the probabilities is 1.07, which is greater
than 1.
• The sum of all the probabilities in a probability
distribution always equals 1. So, this distribution
is not a probability distribution.
Example: Identifying
Probability Distributions
Determine whether each distribution is a
probability distribution. Explain your
reasoning. x 1 2 3 4
2.
P(x) 1
Solution
• The sum of all the probabilities is equal to 1, but P(3)
and P(4) are not between 0 and 1.
• Probabilities can never be negative or greater than 1.
So, this distribution is not a probability distribution.
Example 5
• Let X be the number of vehicles owned by a randomly selected
family. Write the probability distribution of X and graph for
the data.
23
Example 5
P(X)
P(X)

Example 6
A small farm has 10 cows of which 6 of them are males. A
veterinary in country XY wants to study about the foot and
mouth disease which attacks the cows. Therefore, she randomly
selects, without replacement, two cows from the farm. Based on
the study, construct a probability distribution where X is the
random sample representing the number of male cows being
selected. (Use a tree diagram to illustrate the above event).
P(X)
25
Example 7
• The following table lists the probability distribution
of car sales per day in a used car shop based on past
data.
P(X)
• Find the probability that the number of car sales per

day is,
• a) none c) 1 to 3
P (1  X  3)
P(X=0) = 0.10
 P ( X  1)  P( X  2)  P ( X  3)
• b) exactly 1  0.25  0.30  0.35
P(X=1) = 0.25  0.90
26
Example 7
P(X)
• Find the probability that the number of car sales per

day is,
d) more than 1 e) at most 2
P( X  1) P( X  2)
 P( X  2)  P ( X  0)  P( X  1)  P ( X  2)
 P( X  2)  P( X  3)  0.10  0.25  0.30
 0.30  0.35  0.65
 0.65
27
Cumulative Distribution Function
• All random variables (discrete and continuous) have a
cumulative distribution function (CDF) .
• It is a function giving the probability that the random
variable X is less than or equal to x, for every value x.
• For a discrete random variable, the cumulative
distribution function is found by summing up the
probabilities. t
• F ( x)  P( X  x)   P( X  x)
x x 0
• and P(X = x) is the probability distribution function

for X where x  x0 , x1 , x2 ..., xt .
28
Example 8
• A discrete random variable X has the following
probability distribution.
• Construct the cumulative distribution of X.
F(1) = P(X=0) + P(X=1)

= 1/30 + 3/10
= 1/30 + 9/30
=10/30 29
Example 9
• A discrete random variable X has the following
cumulative distribution.
1
 21 , for 0  x  1 a) Construct the probability distribution of X.

 3 , for 1  x  2
 21
6
 , for 2  x  3
F ( x)   21
10 P(X)
 , for 3  x  4
 21
15
 21 , for 4  x  5

1 , for x  5

Example 9
P(x)
P(X) F(x)
18/21
20/21
22/21
31

Example 10
• During school holidays, the manager of Victory Hotel
records the number of room bookings being cancelled
each day during a period of 50 days, the results are
shown below and X denotes the number of room
bookings being cancelled per day.

Example 10
• a) Construct the probability distribution of X.
P(X)
P(X)
33
Example 10
b) Find the probability that at most three room bookings
were cancelled.
P( X  3)
 P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)  P( X  3)
 0.04  0.08  0.14  0.16
 0.42
34
Example 11
The probability distribution of discrete random variable X is
given as follow:
c (3  t ), t  0,1,2,3

P (T  t )   0 ,otherwise


a) What is the value of c?

b) Find P(T=2), P(T=3)
c) Find P 0  T  2 .
35
Example 11
a) P(T=0)+P(T=1)+P(T=2)+P(T=3)=1
c(3)+ c(2)+ c(1)+ c(0)=1
6c = 1
c = 1/6
• (3-t) (3-0),(3-1),(3-2),(3-3)
= c(3),c(2),c(1),c(0)
36
Example 11
1
 (3  t ) t  0,1,2,3
P (T  t )   6
 0 otherwise
1 1
b) P(T=2) = (3-2)=
6 6
1
P(T=3) = (3-3)= 0
6
1 1 1
c) P 0  T  2 = (3-0) + (3-1) + (3-2)
6 6 6
3 2 1
= + +
6 6 6
=1

Example 12
a) Find the value of n if
P(X = x) = n( x  3) 2 , for x = 5,7,9
b) Find the value of n if Solution
x a) n 
1
 n , x  1,3,5,7 56
P( X  x)   3
x , x  2,4,6 b) n  304
 n

Example 13
An experiment is carried up by tossing two dices simultaneously. Let X
represent as the sum of the score shown on the top face of both dices.
a) Find the probability function for all X.

b) Find the probability where the sum of score for both dices is 7 or 11.
c) Find the probability where the sum of score for both dices is more
than 8.
d) Find the probability where the sum of score for both dices is more
than 3 but less than 9.
39
Example 13
Solution
a)
x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
f(x) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36
b) 0.2222
c) 0.2778
d) 0.6389
40
Mean
Mean of a discrete probability distribution
• μ = Σ xP(x)
• Each value of x is multiplied by its corresponding
probability and the products are added.

Example 14: Finding the Mean
The probability distribution for the personality
inventory test for passive-aggressive traits is given. Find
the mean score.
x P(x) xP(x)
Solution: 1 0.16 1(0.16) = 0.16
2 0.22 2(0.22) = 0.44
3 0.28 3(0.28) = 0.84
4 0.20 4(0.20) = 0.80
5 0.14 5(0.14) = 0.70
μ = Σ xP(x) = 2.94  2.9

Solution: Finding the Mean
the mean score.
Solution: μ = Σ xP(x) = 2.94  2.9
Recall that a score of 3 represents an individual who

exhibits neither passive nor aggressive traits and the
mean is slightly less than 3. So, the mean personality
trait is neither extremely passive nor extremely
aggressive, but is slightly closer to passive.

Variance and Standard
Deviation
Variance of a discrete probability distribution
•  2  ( x   ) 2 P ( x )
Standard deviation of a discrete probability

distribution
•    2  ( x   ) 2 P ( x)

Example 15: Finding the
Variance and Standard Deviation
the variance and standard deviation.
Score, x Probability,
P(x)
1 0.16
2 0.22
3 0.28
4 0.20
5 0.14

Solution: Finding the Variance
and Standard Deviation
Recall μ = 2.94
x P(x) x–μ (x – μ)2 (x – μ)2P(x)
1 0.16 1 – 2.94 = –1.94 (–1.94)2 = 3.764 3.764(0.16) = 0.602
2 0.22 2 – 2.94 = –0.94 (–0.94)2 = 0.884 0.884(0.22) = 0.194
3 0.28 3 – 2.94 = 0.06 (0.06)2 = 0.004 0.004(0.28) = 0.001
4 0.20 4 – 2.94 = 1.06 (1.06)2 = 1.124 1.124(0.20) = 0.225
5 0.14 5 – 2.94 = 2.06 (2.06)2 = 4.244 4.244(0.14) = 0.594
Variance:σ2 = Σ(x – μ)2P(x) = 1.6164

Standard Deviation: = 1.3
Most of the data values differ from the mean by no
more than 1.3.

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Chapter 4

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• Examples of discrete random variables:

• Discrete, maybe the outcome (0,1,2,3,4……..,n)

. Copyright 2019, Pearson Education, Ltd. 8

. Copyright 2019, Pearson Education, Ltd. 10

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. Copyright 2019, Pearson Education, Ltd. 15

. Copyright 2019, Pearson Education, Ltd. 16

This is a valid discrete probability distribution since

. Copyright 2019, Pearson Education, Ltd. 17

Because the width of each bar is

Copyright 2019, Pearson Education, Ltd. 19

Copyright 2019, Pearson Education, Ltd. 24

• Find the probability that the number of car sales per

• Find the probability that the number of car sales per

• and P(X = x) is the probability distribution function

• Construct the cumulative distribution of X.

F(1) = P(X=0) + P(X=1)

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a) What is the value of c?

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b) Find the value of n if Solution

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a) Find the probability function for all X.

. Copyright 2019, Pearson Education, Ltd. 41

μ = Σ xP(x) = 2.94  2.9

Solution: μ = Σ xP(x) = 2.94  2.9

Recall that a score of 3 represents an individual who

. Copyright 2019, Pearson Education, Ltd. 43

Standard deviation of a discrete probability

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Variance:σ2 = Σ(x – μ)2P(x) = 1.6164

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