Institute for

Protection and
Security of the
Citizen

MARS-STAT Action:
crop monitoring
and yield forecasting

Jacques DELINCE
European Commission – JRC/IPSC - AGRIFISH Unit
Jacques.Delince@ec.europa.eu

1
Content of the presentation
• Main activities of MARS-STAT

• Focus on agro meteorology and the

MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System

2
 MARS-STAT ACTIVITIES in
MARS-STAT ACTIVITIES in FP7
FP7 JRC-MAWP Action MARS-Stat;

Missions Activities Customers

Independent and  Cropyield forecasts
timely production
MARS-STAT

 MARS Crop Yield  DG AGRI

of estimates for Forecasting System;  DG ESTAT
the major  PASTURE Monitoring  DG ENLARG
European crops SYSTEM;
 MS
Extension to other  Area estimates (LUCAS)
world main market
actors (influencing  Climate change scenario
world prices) implementations
Climate change
impact on
agriculture

3
 EU
EU Reference
Reference Policies
Policies

The Council/ Parliament Decision n° 1445/2000/CE of the 22 May

2000 and Renewal of the Decision for the period 2004-2007 (Ref.
PE/CONS 3661/1/03 OJ L 309 of 26.11.2003):
“Décision du Parlement Européen et du Conseil portant sur
l’application de techniques d’enquêtes aréolaires et de
télédétection aux statistiques agricoles pour la période 2000-
2003“.

New regulation to cover the period 2008-2013 is in preparation

The JRC multi annual programme 2007-2013 (action MARS STAT)

4
 MARS-RESULTS Main use
• MARS FORECASTS and ANALYSIS are used since 2001 as
benchmark by DG-AGRI analysts in charge of food balance
estimates for CAP decisions

• MARS FORECASTS are used since 2003 in the official

EUROSTAT forecast system used within the Crop Production
Committee of Member States

5
 CHALLENGES in FP7 for MARS-STAT

Challenges in FP7:
- Implementation of Area Estimates at EU level
- Crop Production Estimates in the main areas
steering world prices (USA, Argentina, Bresil,
Russia, Australia, India, China)
- Climate Change impact scenario on agriculture
up to 100 years
- Agriculture Insurances studies as input to a new
CAP

6
 MARS-STAT
MARS-STAT OBJECTIVES
OBJECTIVES

PRODUCTION = YIELDS * ACREAGE

Early crop Precise Crop
yields forecast Area Estimates

M ars
C rop
Y ield
Forecasting • Regional
Inventories
S ystem • Rapid
estimates
7
 MCYFS:
MCYFS: Methodological
Methodological approach
approach
YIELD France - Soft Wheat
MARSy Yield - Area 1000 ha
T/ha FORECASTED_YIELD
AREA

Indicators from low

8.50 Linear (YIELD) 5600.00
Poly. (YIELD)
8.00
5100.00
7.50

7.00

6.50
4600.00

4100.00
resolution satellite
data (since 1981)
6.00

y = 0.135x + 4.1578 3600.00

5.50
R2 = 0.8904
5.00 3100.00
y = -0.0032x 2 + 0.2209x + 3.757
4.50 R2 = 0.9126
2600.00

DB
4.00

3.50
YEAR
2100.00
DB

Statistical analyses:
time series, tendency
analyses, etc. Yield forecasts Indicators from
meteo data sets
DB DB (since 1975)

Indicators from
agrometeo
parameters

8
 MCYFS:
MCYFS: Areas
Areas of
of interest
interest

• EU-27
• Candidates Countries
• Maghreb
• Russia (European part)
• Ukraine
• Belorussia

Meteo data interpolated

onto a regular grid
(50x50km, 5625 cell)
9
 MCYFS:
MCYFS: Crops
Crops of
of interest
interest

11 simulated crops:

Wheat
Barley
Maize
Rice
Sunflower
Rapeseed
Sugar Beet
Potato
Field Beans/Peas
Soy Beans
Pastures (Rye Grass)

10
 EXAMPLES:
EXAMPLES: Meteorological
Meteorological tools,
tools, facilities
facilities and
and
products
products
Standard products
– Maps of meteo parameters
– Maps of meteo events relevant for agriculture
– Maps of crops’ simulated parameters

Special elaborations
– Maps of meteo extreme events
– Maps of simultaneousness
• Meteo events VS agriculture activities
• Meteo events VS crop specific development stage
– Daily data analysis
• At grid level
• At station level

11
 Regular
Regular bulletins
bulletins (6-8/year)
(6-8/year) and
and “Climatic
“Climatic updates
updates (15/year)
(15/year)

Electronic versions:
http://agrifish.jrc.it/stats/bulletin
2003 drought affected crop production the 2004 extremely high crop production
low record year the high record year
12
 Some
Some examples:
examples: Meteo
Meteo events
events relevant
relevant for
for agriculture
agriculture

Average values of Mean C-Tmean (°C)

5
Period: 15/11 - 31/12 Corine Class: Non-irrigated arable land
4 Nuts code: RO România

Hottest November- 3

December period in the

2

last 32 years 0

-1

-2

-3

-4
2001

1995

1975

1988

1993

1989

1986

1984

1992

1978

2002

1994

1976

1999

1996

1980

2004

2003

1990

1979

1982

2000

2006
1998

1977

1983

1991

1997

1981

1985

2005

1987
Year Avg +stdev -stdev
13
 Some
Some examples:
examples:
Meteo
Meteo events
events relevant
relevant
for
for agriculture
agriculture

110

Cumulated values of C-RAINFALL (mm)

100
Period: 01/03 - 15/04 Corine Class: Non-irrigated arable land
90 Nuts code: RO România

For 2006, the period 80

March – mid April was 70

the wettest in the last 32

60

50

years. 40

30

20

10
1983

1992

1989

1986

1975

1991

1981

1976

1998

2000

1999

1993

2002

1977

1984

1996

2004

1979

2001

1978

2006
1990

1985

1982

1987

1995

2005

1988

2003

1994

1980

1997
Year Avg +stdev -stdev

14
 Some
Some examples:
examples: Maps
Maps of
of crop
crop simulated
simulated parameters
parameters

Crop growth parameters

are simulated and related
to final yields.
Relative Soil Moisture for Wheat in România (RO)

140
Simulated Water-limited Yield for Wheat in România
(RO)
120
10000
100
9000

80 8000
mm/mm

7000
60 6000
kg/ha 5000
40
4000
20 3000
2000
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1000
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 2005 2003 2006 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Avg +2St_dev -2St_dev 2005 2003 2006
15
 RS
Some examples: use of remote sensing

The NDVI satellite indicator shows area where the vegetation is

stressed or in low activity (in the example the stress given by
the summer 2003 drought in red)
16
 One of the main products: YIELD FORECAST
Example: soft wheat EU25 (May 2006)
EU25 soft wheat yield forecasts - 12th May 2006
SOFT WHEAT
Area x 1000 ha Yield t/ha Production x 1000 t.
MARS
2006
Country 2005* 2006* Avg 5yrs %06/05 %06/5yrs 2005* forecasts Avg 5yrs %06/05 %06/5yrs 2005* 2006 Avg 5yrs %06/05 %06/5yrs
EU25 19,240 19,387 19,000.00 0.8 2.0 5.99 6.2 5.9 3.6 5.5 115,248 120,314 111,733 4.4 7.7
AT 274 282 271.00 3.1 4.2 5.08 5.4 5.2 6.5 4.9 1,390 1,526 1,397 9.8 9.3
BE 214 205 202.00 -4.1 1.5 8.42 8.9 8.4 5.8 5.5 1,799 1,825 1,705 1.4 7.1
CZ 820 815 821.00 -0.6 -0.7 5.05 5.1 4.9 0.8 4.5 4,145 4,151 4,000 0.1 3.8
DE 3,163 3,208 3,025.00 1.4 6.0 7.47 7.9 7.4 5.6 6.8 23,643 25,319 22,355 7.1 13.3
DK 674 639 643.00 -5.2 -0.7 7.17 7.2 7.2 0.5 0.8 4,832 4,605 4,602 -4.7 0.1
EE 85 83 71.00 -2.5 17.2 3.08 2.5 2.5 -20.0 0.5 263 205 174 -22.0 17.8
ES
FI
FR
1,331
215
4,859
1,403
231
4,873
1,330.00
192.00
4,714.00
Total wheat yield forecasts - 12th May 2006
5.4
7.6
0.3
5.5
20.4
3.4
2.22
3.72
7.17
2.9
3.5
7.6
2.9
3.5
7.2
28.4
-7.1
6.4
-1.1
0.4
6.7
2,954
801
34,841
3,999
801
37,191
3,832
663
33,727
35.3
0.0
6.7
4.3
20.9
10.3
GR 100 85 123.00 -15.0 -30.7 2.70 2.8 2.7 2.2 0.9 270 235 335 -13.1 -30.1
HU
IE
IT
1,130
95
603
1,181
99
591
1,147.00
96.00
614.00
4.5
5.0
-1.9
3.0
3.4
-3.7
4.49
8.43
5.45
4.5
9.9
5.3
4.0
8.9
4.9
1.0
17.5
-3.8
13.0
11.7
7.5
798WHEAT
5,079

3,286
5,361
985
3,101
4,606
852
2,994
5.6
23.4
-5.6
16.4
15.5
3.6
LT
LU
LV
370
12
188
351
12
180
350.00
11.00
169.00
-5.0
0.0
-4.2
0.4
5.2
6.2
3.73
6.02
3.61
3.8
6.5
3.5
3.6
6.1
3.1
0.6
7.8
-3.2
4.2
6.5
13.2
1,379
72
676
Yield t/ha
1,319
77
628
1,261
69
522
-4.4
7.8
-7.2
4.6
12.1
20.3
NL 144 134 134.00 -6.4 0.4 8.72 8.9 8.4 2.6 6.1 1,253 1,203 1,130 -4.0 6.5
PL
PT
2,218
120
2,270
114
2,376.00
56.00
2.3
-5.0
-4.5
105.2
3.96
0.50
3.9
1.6
3.8
1.3
-2.4
210.4
MARS 2006
1.5
21.4
8,773
60
8,763
177
9,041
71
-0.1
194.9
-3.1
149.1
SE
SI
355
30
394
33
349
381.00
35.00
11.1
11.2
3.4
-3.4
6.35
4.70 2005*
6.4
4.5
3.9
6.0
4.4
0.7
-5.3 forecasts
6.5
0.3
2,254
141 Avg 5yrs
2,521
149
1,349
2,288
154
11.8
5.3 %06/05
10.2
-3.2 %06/5yrs
SK 371 375.00 -5.8 -7.0 4.28 4.0 -9.7 -3.2 1,586 1,498 -15.0 -10.0
UK 1,870 1,854 1,864.00
BG
-0.9 -0.6 8.00
3.2
8.0 7.8 0.1
3.3
3.1 14,951 14,826
3.1 14,458 -0.8
5.0
2.5
7.8
* Source EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2006-05-04
DZ
Note: Countries with areas below 10000 ha are not counted in 1.6 1.4 1.4 -9.2 3.2
MA 0.5 0.8 0.9 50.8 -9.7
RO 3.0 3.0 2.6 -2.0 15.6
TN 1.1 1.0 1.0 -14.8 0.4
TR 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.7 8.7
UA 2.2 1.8 2.2 -18.7 -21.5

* Sources: EUROSTAT New Cronos and EES: last update 2006-05-04 , FAO statistical database

17
 http://www.marsop.info
18
 Some
Some of
of the
the contacts
contacts of
of AGRIFISH
AGRIFISH Unit
Unit in
in
Romania
Romania
•Prof. Dr. Cristian HERA - President of Romanian Academy for Agricultural Science;
•Doru Marius NECHITI - Director - Paying and Intervention Agency for Agriculture;
•Svetlana GACICHEVICI - Director - Paying and Intervention Agency for Agriculture;
•Nicolae Mihail DRAGAN - Paying and Intervention Agency for Agriculture;
•Prof. Dr. Marian VERZEA – Agricultural Research and Development Institute;
•Dr. Alexandru BADEA – Romanian Space Agency (ROSA);
•Dr. Elena MATEESCU - National Meteorological Administration;
•Dr. Roxana VINTILA– Research Institute for Soil Science and Agrochemistry
•Dr. Catalin SIMOTA – Research Institute for Soil Science and Agrochemistry
•Dr. Gheorghe PUIU – Romanian National Institute of Statistics.

Romanian Staff in AGRIFISH Unit:

•Ec. Mihaela FOTIN JRC – IPSC, AGRIFISH unit, MARS-PAC (institution of origin:
Romanian National Institute of Statistics) ;
•Dr. Catalin LAZAR – JRC – IPSC, AGRIFISH unit, MARS-STAT (institution of origin:
Agricultural Research and Development Institute - Fundulea).

19
 AGRIFISH
UNIT

EC – JRC/IPSC - Agrifish Unit

20 Thank you for your attention