VIRUS SPREAD

SIMULATION

Presented by Frederick LUEBKE. & ABOTSITSE Komi

Contents

1. Abstract
2. Introduction
3. Description of the research question
4. Methodology or algorithm apply
5. Implementation of the algorithm
6. Description on how to maintain and update code using GIT
7. Results
8. Conclusion
Slide 2
 Abstract

This year the whole world has been hit by a virus which has terribly affected the world economy .A lot of uncertainty
surrounds the spread of the virus from how many people suffer. To this problem we decided to make a python
model to simulate with different algorithms how a virus spreads with quantifiable variables such as: social
distancing, hygiene, changes in the characteristics of a country or of the virus itself. The idea is to have a set of
functions that gives us these quantifiable variables from some factors which will be predetermined in our model .
We will use a set of functions that gives us these quantifiable variables from some factors which will be
predetermined in our model (some will be fix and some will be changeable). We will then be able to visualize what
impacts the spread and by how much. After several simulations we realized that certain factors favored the
propagation of the virus while others drastically decreased it.

Slide 3
Introduction

The spread of a virus within a population is a dynamic phenomenon: healthy and sick individuals vary
over time .This phenomenon can be studied by modeling it with a fictitious world map in which we
create a map of the world on which we randomly generate individuals and a patient 0 (first infected).
We will use SIR model, S => Susceptible/healthy individuals, I => Infected and R => Recovered. We
have slightly modified this model for the R to represent Removed people which are all recovered
people and dead people as both groups are those primarily affected by the disease and both are
“immunized” (or don’t affect future transmission as they either die, isolate themselves or go to the
hospital). The size of each of these groups obviously varies over time.

Slide 4
Description of the research question

The main question is how impactful various parameters are on what we define as the major
downsides to a virus epidemic .To be able to answer these questions, we decided to use 8
distincts parameters that influence the spread of a virus, them being:
 Social distancing
 Hygiene
 Relative humidity
 Temperature
 How long someone is infectious but not showing symptoms (ie. infectious period)
 Probability of being removed on a given day (probability of dying on a given day + probability of
recovering on a given day)
 Population 
 Size of the world
Slide 5
Methodology or Algorithm Apply

Slide 6
Implementation of the algorithm

One of the first functions we had to define was one that could return all neighbors of a given
space(find_people()) .A challenge we encountered when creating this function was that some spaces
had fewer neighbors than others. The implementation of conditions was key to ensure we did not get
unwanted neighbors. One of the more challenging functions to create was the “move people” function.
This is where the social distancing factor came into play in our model.

Slide 7
Description on how to maintain code using Git

Slide 8
Results

9
Conclusion

Slide 10