TECHNICAL GUIDE No.

Estimation of Future Design

Rainstorm under the Climate
Change Scenario in Peninsular
Malaysia

Research Centre for Water Resources &

Climate Change
National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia
Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment
Feb. 17, 2013
NAWMI, JPS
 Part 1 : HP1 (2010)
 Part 2 : NAHRIM Tech. Guide No.1
 Chap. 1 – 1.2 (problem state. &
1.3 (objective)
 Chap. 2 – Approach & Methodology
 Chap. 3 – Results & Findings
 Part 3 : Chap. 4 - Worked Example
 Part 1 : HP1 (2010) -1/3
TASK 1 (T1) TASK 2 (T2) TASK 3 (T3) TASK 4 (T4)

Data Mining & Choice of Rainfall Choice of Prob. Method of Parameter

Assembly Freq. Model Distribution Estimator

OUTLIER CHECKING

Data: PD Series: Low &

3P-GPA or L-MOMENTS
PD Series & AM High Return
2P-GPA/EXP (LMOM)
Series Period

AM Series: High
3P-GEV METHODS OF
Return Period
or 2P-EV1 MOMENT (MOM)
(>1yr)

OPTIONAL for
UNGAUGED ONE-STEP LEAST
SQUARE
METHOD
 Part 1 : HP1 (2010) -2/3
TASK 1 (T1) TASK 2 (T2) TASK 3 (T3) TASK 4 (T4)

GOOD
PERFORMANCE :
BIAS

RANDOM ROBUSTNESS
NUMBER ANALYSIS :
BIAS & RMSE
ACCURACY :
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE ERROR

BEST FIT/
BEST FIT/
APPROPRIATE TASK 5 TASK 6
APPROPRIATE (T5) (T6)
MODEL
MODEL
Construction and
Estimation
Estimationofofthe Math. of at-
Formulation T7
T7
Design Storm of Low site IDF Curve
Formulation of
3P-GPA/LMOM
3P-GPA/LMOM andthe Design
High Return at-Site&IDF & T8
3P-GEV/LMOM
3P-GEV/LMOM Period
Rainstorm UNGAUGED SITE
Ungauged Site T8
T9
2P-GPA/EXP/LMOM
2P-GPA/EXP/LMOM
2P-EV1/LMOM
2P-EV1/LMOM
2P-EV1/MOM
2P-EV1/MOM
3P-GEV/OS-LSM
3P-GEV/OS-LSM
 Part 1 : HP1 (2010) -3/3 Total Nos. of Raingauges
Kauto

188
Dauto
Rauto
627

Pauto
Tauto

Aauto

Cauto
Bauto
Wauto Jauto

Nauto Mauto
 1000.0
Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curve
Site 3117070@Pusat Penyelidikan JPS Ampang, Selangor

100.0
Rainfall Intensity (mm/hr)

66.8094T 0.1481
I 100

 d  0.1559 0.8372 50
20
10
10.0 5
Duration Yearly Return Period 2
(hr) 2 5 10 20 50 100
0.25 155.1 177.7 196.9 218.2 249.9 276.9
0.5 103.8 118.9 131.8 146.0 167.2 185.3
1 64.6 74.0 82.0 90.8 104.1 115.3
3 27.9 31.9 35.4 39.2 44.9 49.7
6 15.9 18.2 20.2 22.4 25.7 28.4
12 9.0 10.3 11.4 12.7 14.5 16.1
24 5.1 5.8 6.4 7.1 8.2 9.0
48 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.1
72 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.6
1.0
0.1 1 Duration (hr) 10 100
 Part 1 : HP1 (2010)
 Part 2 : NAHRIM Tech. Guide No.1
 Chap. 1 – 1.2 (problem state. &
1.3 (objective)
 Chap. 2 – Approach & Methodology
 Chap. 3 – Results & Findings
 Part 3 : Chap. 4 - Worked Example
Part 2 : NAHRIM Tech. Guide No.1
1.1 Background: Climate Change Scenario
 A study that has been carried out indicate a possible increase
in inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability with increased
hydrologic extremes (higher high flows and lower low flows)
at various northern watersheds in the future (2025-2050);
 The probability of increase in rainfall would lead to a raise in
river flow of between 11% and 47% for Peninsular Malaysia
with low flow reductions ranging from 31% to 93% for the
central and southern regions (NAHRIM, 2006);
 Parts of Malaysia may experience a decrease in return for
extreme precipitation events and the possibility of more
frequent floods as well as drought
1.2 Problem Statement
 HYDROLOGIC & HYDRAULIC DESIGN
To estimate water surface profile, platform level, size of hydraulic
structure corresponding to any return period of occurrence or level of
protection AVERAGE RECURRENCE INTERVAL (RETURN PERIOD)

Sg Guntung
[13.86km

Data units/pixel: Horizontal=8.0days Vertical=0.84mm Sg Cakah Dua

[11.00km] Kg Che
Salmah

Kg
Guntung Kg K
Luar Guntung
Sg Setiu
[5.48km]
Sg Pancur
Merah
[10.40km]
Sg Setiu
[8.6km]
Bdr
Sg Pelung Permaisuri
A A [9.3km]
710630:0800 8001 8601 9201 9801 YYMM Sg Setiu
[11.11km]
A site 5328044 KG. SG. TONG at TERENGGANU Rain mm/day (Total=94149)
Data units/pixel: Horizontal=5.00days Vertical=0.021m
Start Time: 710630 080000 Lower Value: 0.0
Finish Time: 1050131 090000 Upper Value: 410.0 Sg Ima Putih Kg Sg Tarum
[12.38km] Seladang [7.97km]

Sg Setiu
[14.55km]

Sg Lirim
[8.70km]
Sg Tarum
[8.7km]

Sg Lirim
A [13.16km]
A
Sg Tarum
9.5km]
810920:123001 8701 9001 9301 9601 9901 0201 YYYMM Sg Setiu
[9.48km]
Sg Setiu
[4.34km]
A site 5229436 SG. NERUS at KG. BUKIT,TERENGGANU Stage m

Start Time: 810920 123001 Lower Value: 6.00

Finish Time: 1040427 123700 Upper Value: 16.00

HYDROLOGY HYDRAULIC
MODELING MODELING

HYDRO- WATERSHED –
METEOROLOGY “MEDIUM - HYDRAULIC
DATA SYSTEM” STRUCTURES
1.3 Objective of Technical Guideline
 To assist engineers, hydrologists and decision
makers in designing, planning and developing
water-related infrastructure under changing
climatic conditions.
 To introduce an approach of quantifying the
scale of climatic change to surface water
systems.
 The main purpose of this guideline is to derive climate
change factor (CCF)
 CCF – defined as the ratio of the design rainfall for
each of the future periods (time horizons) to the
control periods of historical rainfall)
 Chap. 2: Approach & Methodology

Part 1
IDF
formulation
STEP 1: STEP 2:
Obtain downscaled climate Bias correction of downscaled
data projection data

Part 2 Statistical Downscaling STEP 3:

Model: 18 GCMs Derivation of CCF
Derivation of (2046-2065)
CCF
Dynamic Downscaling STEP 4:
Model: RegHCM-PM Disaggregation of 1-day design
(2025-2034, 2041-2050) rainfall to short duration and
reformulation of IDF Curves

STEP 5:
Rainfall-runoff modelling:
Obtain future Qp
2.3.2 - Derivation  STEP 1:
of Climate Change Work out current (1971-2007) return levels of all rainfall
Factor (Pg.13) events with return periods between 2 and 200-years
from observed database rainfall data using GEV and
EV1.
defined as a ratio of
the design rainfall  STEP 2:
for each of the Identify current return levels for 7 return periods (1 in 5,
future periods to the 10, 20, 25, 50, 100 and 200-year events) from STEP 1.
control periods  STEP 3:
(historical) for each Repeat STEP 1 using climate model data for the period
time horizon. 1981-2000 and 1984-1993 (control period) from the
18 GCMs and RegHCM-PM respectively.
 STEP 4:
Repeat STEP 3 using climate model data for the periods
2025-2050 (RegHCM-PM) & 2046-2065 (GCMs)
 STEP 5:
Calculate climate change load factors by dividing the
return level for each of the future periods (STEP 4) by
the return level for the control period (STEP 3), again
for all of the return periods.
Eq. 28 (Pg.17)
 2.4 Incorporation of CCF and
Historical at-Site IDF (Pg.14)

2.4.1
& 2.4.3
2.4.2
Eq. 30 (Pg.17) Eq. 29 (Pg.17)
 Chap. 3: Results & Findings
Table 3.1: At site 1 day Climate Change Factor
(CCF) corresponding to Return Period in
Peninsular Malaysia (Pg. 20-23)
Climate Change Factor, CCF
State No. Station ID Station Name Return Period, T
2 5 10 20 25 50 100 200

1 6207032 Ampang Pedu 1.05 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.13

2 5507076 Bt.27, Jln Baling 1.12 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.24 1.25

3 5808001 Bt.61, Jln Baling 1.08 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.24

4 5704055 Kedah Peak 1.14 1.20 1.24 1.26 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.33

Kedah 5 5806066 Klinik Jeniang 1.15 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.22

6 6108001 Komp. Rmh Muda 1.15 1.24 1.29 1.33 1.34 1.38 1.41 1.44

7 6206035 Kuala Nerang 0.97 1.07 1.13 1.17 1.18 1.22 1.25 1.28

8 6306031 Padang Sanai 1.08 1.09 1.11 1.14 1.15 1.18 1.23 1.28

9 6103047 JPS Alor Setar 1.07 1.17 1.22 1.26 1.28 1.32 1.35 1.38
Table 3.2: At site 1-day Future IDF Parameter
(λ’) corresponding to Return Period in
Peninsular Malaysia (Pg. 23-26)

1-day λ'

State No. Station ID Station Name Return Period, T

2 5 10 20 25 50 100 200

1 6207032 Ampang Pedu 69.47 71.27 72.22 73.00 73.22 73.86 74.41 74.90

2 5507076 Bt.27, Jln Baling 58.55 60.64 61.84 62.86 63.16 64.04 64.84 65.56

3 5808001 Bt.61, Jln Baling 51.41 53.74 55.00 56.06 56.37 57.24 58.02 58.71

4 5704055 Kedah Peak 92.90 98.19 100.91 103.08 103.70 105.44 106.93 108.24

Kedah
5 5806066 Klinik Jeniang 68.59 69.98 70.71 71.30 71.47 71.95 72.37 72.73

6 6108001 Komp Rmh Muda 60.25 64.83 67.41 69.61 70.27 72.14 73.83 75.37

7 6206035 Kuala Nerang 53.34 58.78 61.68 64.07 64.76 66.71 68.42 69.94

8 6306031 Padang Sanai 65.37 65.71 66.84 68.48 69.10 71.32 73.94 76.97

9 6103047 JPS Alor Setar 69.44 75.61 79.04 81.94 82.79 85.23 87.41 89.38
IDF Parameters – Baseline (Historical) & Future
3.3 1 Day Climate Change Factor
For Ungauged Sites (Pg. 27)

Fig. 3.1 – 3.8

(Pg. 28-32)
Figure 3.1: 1 Day Climate Change Factor (CCF) – 2yrs ARI
Figure 3.2: 1 Day Climate Change Factor (CCF) – 5yrs ARI
Figure 3.3: 1 Day Climate Change Factor (CCF) – 10yrs ARI
Figure 3.4: 1 Day Climate Change Factor (CCF) – 20yrs ARI
Figure 3.5: 1 Day Climate Change Factor (CCF) – 25yrs ARI
Figure 3.6: 1 Day Climate Change Factor (CCF) – 50yrs ARI
Figure 3.7: 1 Day Climate Change Factor (CCF) – 100yrs ARI
Figure 3.8: 1 Day Climate Change Factor (CCF) – 200yrs ARI
3.4 LIMITATIONS OF GUIDELINE
The climate projection data used in the calculation of climate change factor
in this study are averaged from 18 chosen GCMs. For this study, the
emission scenario A1B from IPCC SRES is assumed. The A1B is a scenario in
which the usage of all energy sources is evenly balanced. The dataset used in
this analysis covers only two future periods from 2025 to 2050 and from
2046 to 2065. The climate change factors, CCF and modified λ, λ’ in this
guideline are calculated for 1 day (24 hours) rainfall duration only.
 Part 1 : HP1 (2010)
 Part 2 : NAHRIM Tech. Guide No.1
 Chap. 1 – 1.2 (problem state. &
1.3 (objective)
 Chap. 2 – Approach & Methodology
 Chap. 3 – Results & Findings
 Part 3 : Chap. 4 - Worked Example
 Chap. 4 –
Worked
Example
(Pg.37-52)
 Example 6:
DESIGNED FLOOD PEAKS – SG KEDAH
Peak Discharges (Qp)
100-years ARI
Climate Percentage
Climate 1-Day Climate
Change Increase of
Time Change Design Change
Item Scenario Flood
Horizon Factor Rainfall Scenario
Flood Magnitude
(CCF) (mm) Flood
Magnitude (%)
Magnitude,
Increment
Qp (m3/s)
(m3/s)

Baseline - - 241 2048 - -

1 2020 1.05 245 2111 63 3.1
2 2030 1.09 257 2268 220 10.7
3 2040 1.14 268 2430 382 18.7
4 2050 1.19 280 2602 554 27.1
5 2060 1.25 293 2785 737 36.0
 Increment rate
of flow 737m3/s [598.1]

554m3/s [449.5]

382m3/s[310.5]

220m3/s [179] Increment rate

of rainfall
ANALYSIS OUTCOME: WATER RESOURCES SECTOR
FLOOD MAPS– SG KEDAH

Area for flood depth (km2)

Time
0.01 - 0.5 -
horizon >1.2 m Sum
0.5 m 1.2 m
Baseline 50.50 41.55 35.57 127.62
2020 51.24 43.91 37.92 133.06
2030 51.01 45.18 39.90 136.10
2040 50.51 46.86 42.00 139.36
2050 49.13 49.17 44.20 142.50
2060 48.16 50.00 46.95 145.10
terima kasih
 TECH GUIDE No.2 –
The Design Guide for
Rainwater Harvesting
System

25 Feb. 2014