Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Septic
Pathogens tank
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Urban inundation
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Direct effects
• Personal property
damage
• Life loss
• Infrastructure damage
Indirect effects
• Infectious diseases
• Tourism
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Research Objectives
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Flood Prone Areas in Metro Manila
KAMANAVA
Pasig-Marikina Basin
Area
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Health risk assessment
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Health risk assessment through
8 flood water
Walking
Pathogen
Cooking
Cleaning
Moving
furniture
Infection Washing
…. 8
Exposure assessment
Exposure Scenarios
Level Inundation depth Human behavior
I 0-50 cm most houses will stay dry and it is still possible to walk through the water
II 50-100 cm there will be at least 50 cm of water on the ground floor
III 100-200 cm the ground floor of the houses will be flooded
IV > 200 cm both the first floor and often also the roof will be covered by water.
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Calculation of Risk
POPULATION 6% 11 %
Dose
Infection risk
TOTAL RISK 11
Pathogen’s dose-response model
Pannual = 1 − [1 − P (d )]
n
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Metro Manila - Population density map
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Metro Manila - Inundation map
Status-quo Inundation map A1F1 inundation map
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Metro Manila - Inundation map
Bridging between research and practice is challenging
Not covered in
our model as it is
not overflow from
Pasig-Marikina
River
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Estimated daily risk and number of infected people in Metro
Manila
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Single risk and annual risk associated with pathogen
exposure during flooding period
Group of Age Risk Inundation depth (cm)
< 50 50-100 100-200 >200
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Messages
Risk of the poor contracting gastrointestinal illness due to E.Coli from incidental ingestion of flood
water in Manila over the course of a year varies according to inundation levels and age.
Contact with flood water poses significant human health risks for residents in the flood-prone
region like Manila, and particularly for poor children and youth.
To verify the results, evidence of group behaviour during floods, inundation water quality and
natural, social and economic data pertaining to the study area need to be collected.
Aim of this analysis is to make a contribution to the quantification of climate change-related risks,
and to simulate further discussion and reflection of methodologies for undertaking quantitative
assessments. Quantifying such risks can assist in future health planning and community-based
natural disaster risk management
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Measurable health effects associated with water related-
activities in flood waters (Cabelli, 1982) 20
Thank you very much
for your kind attention
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