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 Multidimensional Effects on Human activities

 Climate Variations alter the water cycle

 Many studies show that this has already occurred ( Dragoni

1998, Buffoni et al. 2002, Labat et al., 2004, Huntington 2006,
IPCC 2007)

 Changes in cropping pattern, land use pattern and over

exploitation of water storages

 Variation in inter-annual and long-term variability of monsoon

rainfall are statistically significant
• Groundwater management
has potential implications
• Every meter drop of pumping
water level increases green
house gas emission by 5% in
India
• Increasing trend in
temperature and decreasing
trend in rainfall (Rupkumar
et al. 1994, Singh and
Sontakke, 2002)
• High degree of correlation
Growth in Agricultural Groundwater
between rainfall and
Use in selected countries
agricultural production
(Gadgil 2003)
• CC has put agriculture at great risk

• Agriculture is very much sensitive to CC

• It is one of the major drivers of CC

• Impact of CC will add to number of undernourished

people in the world if population growth remains
high and economic growth in the developing world is
low (IIASA,2002).
• Impact of CC on agriculture is the major deciding
factor affecting food security.
• Different crops respond differently to CC

• If temperature rose by 4 degree centigrade, grain yield

would fall 25− 40 percent, rice yields will fall by 15−25
percent and wheat yields by 30−35 percent (Kumar and
Parikh, 1998b). Mendelsohn, et al. (1994)

• Wheat production decreases over time with change in

temperature (Aggarwal, 2008)

• Yield variability in maize increases in Swiss maize crop

(Finger et al. 2010)
 No. of No. of practices
Category of adaptation different mentioned including
practices multiple answers
Farm management and
51 117
technology
Diversification on and beyond
7 33
farm
Farm financial management 5 10
Government interventions in
infrastructure, health and risk 22 29
reduction
Knowledge management,
19 31
networks and governance
Total 104 225

• Till et al. 2010 reviewed 17 studies

• Data from 16 countries
• 104 different adaptation practices followed Farm management
and technology is most frequently used
• Government intervention and knowledge management come
next
• Water is the principal
Present climate vulnerability (pre-adaptation)
medium through which
stresses of CC will be Water storage (adaptation strategy)
manifested (McCartney
and Smakthin, 2010) Increased availability and access to water

1. Increased adaptive capacity

• Water storage provides a
2. Increased agricultural productivity
major role for sustainable
3. Increased water security
development

Future climate vulnerability (post-adaptation)

• Water buffer will reduce
risk and it will reduce
vulnerability of the people.
• Structural measures referred to • Non-structural measures
any physical construction to refer to
avoid negative impacts of
hazards, they include • Policies

• Engineering measures
• Knowledge development

• Construction of hazard resistant

• Awareness and methods
and Protective structures • Operating practices
• Construction of infrastructure • Participative mechanism
(ISDR, 2010) • These measures may reduce
risk and related impacts
• Physical structures in the
(ISDR, 2010)
landscape
• Planting of mangroves
• Beach nourishment
• Construction of reservoirs
• Pay out structure varies from
crop and phase
• The strike or upper threshold Payout for phase
corresponds to 30 years
average rainfall. Rs. 2000

• The exit or lower threshold

Rs. 900
refers to water requirement to
avoid complete crop failure.
• If accumulated rainfall
exceeds the first trigger, the
payment is zero.
• Otherwise the policy pays Second trigger
(equivalent to crop
First trigger
[100 mm]
Rainfall during
phase
amount relative to the first failure) [40 mm]
trigger
Source: Xavier et al., 2008
• If rainfall is below the second
trigger, a fixed maximum
indemnity is paid
 Type of response to
Autonomus
adaptation
Short run Making short run adjustments
(e.g. changing crop planting
dates), Spreading the losses
(e.g. pooling risk through
insurance)
Long run Investing in climate resilience if
future effects are relatively well
understood and benefits easy
to capture fully,
e.g. localised irrigation on
farms
Source: Stern, 2006
Planned or policy driven
Developing greater
understanding of climate risks
(e.g. researching risks and
carrying out a vulnerability
assessment)
Improving emergency response
(e.g. early warning systems)
Investing to create or modify
major infrastructure (e.g. larger
reservoir storage, increased
drainage capacity, higher sea
walls).
Avoiding the impacts (e.g. land-
use planning to restrict
development in floodplains or in
areas of increasing aridity)
• A narrow range of adoptation cost estimation has emerged
using variety of methodologies (Stern, 2006; UNFCCC, 2009;
Parry et al., 2009 and Nelson et al., 2009)
• Nelson et al. describes the investments needed to reduce
children malnutrition close to level it without climate change as
given in the table below:

Developing country agricultural productivity investments to climate change

60 % increase in crop yield growth over baseline
30 % increase in animal numbers growth
40 % increase in production growth of oils and meals
25 % increase in irrigated area growth
15 % decrease in rain-fed area growth
15 % increase in basin water efficiency by 2050

Source: Nelson et al., 2009

• Increase in maximum
Max- Min-
Region Rainfall
temperature in Trichy, Temperature Temperature
Vellore -1.28 -0.02 -0.94
Cuddalore and Perambalur
Dharmapuri -1.36 -0.02 -1.39
districts will result in a loss of Perambalur -3.02 -0.01 2.46
Ramnad -0.30 0.00 0.78
79%, 34% and 33%
Nilgris 11.63 0.03 -7.82
respectively in the net revenue. Cuddalore -1.79 0.02 -0.24
Kanyakumari 0.34 -0.02 -0.06
• HADCM3 scenario will have Tanjavur
Coimbatore
-1.42
-1.35
0.01
-0.03
-0.44
-1.57
maximum effect on Perambalur Trichy -2.74 -0.01 -0.22
farmers with a loss about Total (Except Nilgiris) -1.44 -0.01 -0.18

Rs.3000/acre followed by (Palanisamy et al.)

Trichy farmers whose losses

will be around Rs.2740/acre.
• Informal institutions rely on enforcement methods not
supported by the government.
• The informal institutions have roots in the local
communities and are embedded in with the existing
customs, traditions, rules of conduct and belief.
• At these lowest levels informal institutions prevail over
the formal ones (Sokile & Van Koppen, 2005).
• The importance of informal institutions should not be
disregarded (Ingram and Neel 1998; World Bank
2002).
• The services of NGOs play a vital role in reducing the
vulnerability at local levels (Luna, 2001)
• Partnership between informal process and formal
interventions to facilitate adoptation should be
encourages.
• An example of such an interaction can be seen in
Shinyanga region in northern Tanzania
• Water resource management : Support of NGO has
created awareness and improved water productivity
by 21% in Andhra Pradesh, India (Kakumanu, 2009)
• Adaptation is an essential ingredient in both the adaptation
component and in the development of adaptation policies.

• assessment of the impacts of various climate change scenarios at

disaggregated levels

• national and state level assessments of each country are needed

for designing effective adaptation strategies.

• The researchers should aim to better understand water resources

and storage under different social and ecological conditions.

• This will provide insights into potential climate change impacts on

water supply and demand.

• There is a need for designing the short-term training programs for

different stakeholders and for careful long-term learning through
collaborative research.
• Crop insurance is a risk management mechanism to tide over the
crop failure.

• Weather based insurance premium should be given wide publicity

to the farmers.

• Research on weather based crop insurance which now limited to

dry or rainfed conditions have to be extended to irrigated areas
and crops also.

• State or National governments should conduct studies for the river

basins or regions to identify the vulnerable areas by calculating
the vulnerability index. This will help the policy makers to identify
hot spot areas.

• Existing adaptation mechanisms should be analysed in different

environments to fine tune the strategies for mainstreaming and
up scaling them