Machine Learning Model for the

Detection of Electric Energy Fraud

Using and Edge-Fog Computing
Architecture
Juan C. Olivares Rojas, Enrique Reyes Archundia, Noel
E. Rodríguez Maya, José A. Gutiérrez Gnecchi, Ismael
Molina Moreno, Jaime Cerda Jacobo
The importance of electricity
Industry 4.0
 Technologies 4.0

Digital Twins
Big Data
¿Mejora o
Robotics

empeora la Integration
Systems
AR/VR
seguridad?
DX: Digital
Transformation
IoT
3D Printing

Cloud Cibersecurity
Computing
Smart City / Smart Grid
Smart Metering System
 Non-Technical Losses

PRODEREI 2018-2032

Reduce Non-Thecnical losses at 13.38%

1,407 Millions MXN of Thief and Energy Fraud
Tampering
Solution
 Literature Review
• It’s a well-know problem

• The are different works using

different AI/ML/ Analytics
Techniques

• Most of the works are

focused in Big Data and
Cloud Computing
Edge-Fog-Cloud Computing Architecture
Smart Metering Systems Architecture

Edge Fog Cloud

Implementing a SMS Architecture
Implementing a SMS Architecture
SM1

SM2
DC1
SM3

SM4

Edge Computing
SM5

DC2
SM6

SM7 Fog Computing

 SMS Edge-Fog Architecture

Consumption/ Consumption/
Production 2 Production
Data Data 6
A, SAs, 1
DER DC Fraud
SM Events
Report
measurements Consumption/
Consumption/ Production 3
Production Patterns
Patterns
Machine Learning
3 Check model
5 accurancy
4
Machine Learning
 Structure of SM Database
Timestamp Consumption (kWh) Production (kWh)

01/01/2018 00:15 0.02652 0

01/01/2018 00:30 0 0. 00048

01/01/2018 00:45 0.04563 0.000458

… … …

01/31/2019 23:45 0.23181 0.000475

 Comparative of ML Models
Decision Tree Regression (DTR),
Linear Regression (LR),
Sequential Neural Network (SNN) and
MultiLayer Perceptron Regression (MLPR).

Scikit-learn and Keras libraries of Python were used.

 Test with the complete database

Method MAPE MAPE MAPE

SM DC DC-SM
DTR 16.47% 16.84% 16.51%
LR 18.27% 17.97% 17.66%
SNN 20.76% 21.12% 20.93%
MLPR 13.72% 12.36% 12.29%
 Test with database per year

Method MAPE MAPE MAPE

SM DC DC-SM
DTR 17.39% 16.23% 16.21%
LR 22.17% 21.49% 21.17%
SNN 25.33% 26.12% 26.43%
MLPR 23.47% 22.13% 20.57%
 Test with database per month

Method MAPE MAPE MAPE

SM DC DC-SM
DTR 16.27% 16.64% 16.19%
LR 17.88% 17.71% 17.53%
SNN 19.23% 19.12% 19.23%
MLPR 12.66% 12.16% 11.99%
 Test with database per week
Method MAPE SM MAPE DC MAPE
DC-SM
DTR 16.99% 17.14% 17.07%
LR 18.15% 17.97% 17.93%
SNN 20.53% 20.97% 20.99%
MLPR 13.28% 12.98% 12.74%
 Test with database per day

Method MAPE SM MAPE DC MAPE DC-

SM
DTR 16.69% 16.73% 16.45%
LR 18.05% 17.83% 17.80%
SNN 19.53% 20.74% 20.63%
MLPR 13.57% 12.99% 12.91%
 Conclusions
This work shows that it is possible to detect energy fraud using
data and smart meter processing. The results indicate that the
detection of anomalies of consumption/production of electrical
energy is adequate. Still, like any forecast model, human
intervention plays an essential role in decision making. It is
important to emphasize that the proposed model adjusts its
parameters and amount of training/fit values so that they are
executed properly in embedded devices with limited computing
capabilities. Finally, the use of Fog Computing though DC in
general terms, improves the results of forecasting.
 Questions?
This work is partially supported by the TecnológicoNacional de
México under the grant 8000.20-P and 9002.20-P.

juan.or@morelia.tecnm.mx, enrique.ra@morelia.tecnm.mx,
noel.rm@zitacuaro.tecnm.mx, jose.gg3@morelia.tecnm.mx,
ismael.mm@Morelia.tecnm.mx, jaime.cerda@umich.mx

Thanks you so much!