Demand Management, S & OP

Firdauf Achmad Dhewata, ST, MT

Firdauf Achmad Dhewata - Introduction
JOURNEY
INTERNATIONAL ASSIGNMENTS

Lecturer System Integrator Mgr KPI Analysis & Mgr Logistic Director SCM
Various University HM Sampoerna Tracking Development Sariguna
HM Sampoerna HM Sampoerna Primatirta (Cleo)

2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Now

Graduate Master Degree Ops Strategy Analyst Mgr Capacity Planning & Global Conference : Switzerland, Hong Kong & China
Physic Engineer Informatics HM Sampoerna Sourcing Manufacturing Audit : South Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Australia
ITS ITB HM Sampoerna Factory benchmark : Poland & Brazil
Product re-sourcing : Australia & Malaysia

Manage Self TRAININ

GS
DHL Asia Innovation Center 2018
Manage Other Fast Forward/Lean Enterprise 2017
Value Stream Mapping & SMED 2015
Manage Dept Operations Finance 2013
Blue Leader 2011
Manage Product Lifecycle 2009
Function KPI Auditor 2007
Project Management, PMBOK 2006
Kepner Tregue’s Problem Solving 2003
 Demand Management & S&OP

• Demand Management :
Proses forecast, planning, manage demand untuk dapat “di-seimbangkan”
kapasitas penyediaan produk/service.

• S & OP (Sales & Operation Planning) :

“Continuous Process communication” dari business process owner untuk
mereview dan beradaptasi terhadap segala perubahan yg terjadi dalam proses
Demand Management.
Why We Need Demand Planning :
Play Video Kaizen Coffee
7 Waste dalam Supply Chain

Waste Contoh/Dampak

T Transport Biaya terbuang akibat pengiriman barang yg tidak tepat/alokasi barang yg salah

I Inventory Dead stock, slow moving product, LOGD

M Motion Biaya yg terbuang akibat rute distribusi yg tidak optimal/tidak sinergi.

W Waiting Mesin shutdown karena Out of stock material

O Over Production Production schedule/brand change yg tidak tepat yg mengakibatkan kelebihan inventory

O Over Process Double Handling inventory

D Defects Product retur, biaya yg terbuang akibat kerusakan produk dalam proses pengiriman
 Demand Management – Time Horizon

Long Term Planning Mid Term Planning Short Term Planning

Time Horizon 1-3 Years 12 Months 4-12 Weeks

Scope Business Strategy Action Plan Execution

Market Expansion New Product Launch Tasklist
Transformation Journey Phasing Scheduling
Challenges Major Investment Projected Timeline Supply/Allocation
Business Commitment Seasonal Pattern Backup Plan

Stakeholders CEO, BoD, BoC Senior Managers Line Managers/Spv

 Demand Management – Process

+ = +
TREND PROJECTION
GROWTH/SHRINK NEW DEMAND INVENTORY
(NATURAL
TARGET TARGET POLICY
GROWTH/SHRINK)

SALES/MARKETING NEW MARKET COMPETITOR MACRO ECONOMY

AREA EXPANSION
PROGRAM CHANNEL MOVEMENTS
Contoh Driven Factor & Business
Transformation

VS

40 Thn 5 Thn
Demand Management – Long Term Capacity Planning

Dari Business Strategy dirancang strategy untuk pemenuhan

kebutuhan, outsource vs inhouse analysis, leadtime machine, dll :

Strategy 2020,
outsource material
 Demand Management – Fulfillment

Make to Order Make to Stock

Description Proses pemenuhan kebutuhan dimana produksi Proses pemenuhan kebutuhan dimana
dieksekusi berdasarkan order produksi dieksekusi untuk mengisi stock

Produk Automotive, Customize Product, Special Fast Moving, regular produk

Customer, Event Packaging

Quantity Base on order/contract Base on Sales Forecast

Validity Seasonal, durasi terbatas Regular/continuous

Common Issue Dead Stock (material, FG), pricing material, Capacity excess/shortage, akurasi forecast.
inefficien production, high distribution cost.
Demand Management – Process
• Traditional projection/analythical :
• Annual Trend

• Seasonal Trend
Demand Management – Process (2)
• Demand Sensing, Supply Chain 4.0 (happening in Modern Trade)

Proses perhitungan manual, adjustment,

transfer informasi dari end-to-end bisa di
eliminasi dgn akurasi yg lebih tepat
CLOUD DEMAND SENSING

X
Order
X
Order

Delivery Indomaret DC Delivery

Principal
Outlet Indomaret
 Demand Management – Continuous
Process (S&OP)
Operations Sales
Supply Flow

FG Inventory
Channel
Raw Material Finish Goods Distribution Cost

Modern Trade
Supplier Factory Distribution Sales Depo Sales

Inbound Distribution
Wholesaler
Supply Chain Customer

Information Flow Retailer

Regular Review

Output Produksi

Material Order PPIC Delivery Order Inventory Policy Sales Order Product Profile
Demand Management – Inventory Policy
INVENTORY
VS DAYS OF INVENTORY
QUANTITY

FAKTOR PERTIMBANGAN INVENTORY POLICY

Internal External
Production performance reability (Actual vs Target Market reability (Last 3 months vs Sales Forecast)
Size Gudang (Days of Inventory) Seasonal build up/depletion stock
Asumsi Leadtime delivery, terutama export atau luar Cycle produksi supplier (i.e : high pressure capseal)
pulau.
Asumsi Leadtime material (domestic atau import) Volatility Price/buy strategy (i.e : Clove Price, Global
Plastic Prices)
Rasio Distribution Cost vs Inventory Cost Reability Supplier
Force Majeure
S&OP – Main Rule
• “Continuous Process communication”
• Kata Kunci adalah kolaborasi
• Tujuan Utama adalah mencari solusi & langkah strategic/preventif
• Pertukaran data dilakukan sebelum meeting
• Pengambilan keputusan berdasarkan data, bukan persepsi/asumsi.
• Output : Top-Down direction dari sisi strategis/eksekusi untuk
pemenuhan/penyesuaian supply demand.
Report & Data S&OP
• Stock vs Sales vs Production
Report & Data S&OP (2)
• Stock by Regional/Sales Point
 S&OP Organization - Example
Dir Dir Supply
Dir Sales Monthly S&OP Meeting
Operations Chain

Mgr Sales Plan Mgr Ops Plan Mgr SC Plan Weekly S&OP Meeting

Reg Sales Reg Manager

Manager Plant
Koordinasi Eksekusi

Reg Sales Plan HO Sales Plan

Staff Staff
Reg PPIC Staff HO PPIC Staff Koordinasi Harian

Management Strategic Execution