Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism Opportunities in Asia

Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism
Opportunities in Asia
Ram M. Shrestha
Asian Institute of Technology
Thailand
25th March 2004
AIT
Presentation Outline
 Economic Growth, Energy requirement and

CO2 emissions
 Sectoral Energy Related CO2 Emission in Asia
 Types of Energy Related CDM Projects
 Potential CDM projects by sector
 Marginal Abatement Costs of Some Cleaner
Power Projects
 Final Remarks
AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

Economic Growth, Energy requirement and CO2 emissions
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CO2 Emissions, Total Primary Energy Supply and GDP in OECD and
Developing Asia during1990 -1999
1.8 1.8
1.7 1.7
1.6 1.6
1.5 1.5
1.4 CO2 1.4 CO2
1990value=1.0
1990value=1
1.3 TPES 1.3 GDP

1.2 GDP 1.2 TPES
1.1 1.1
1 1
0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
OECD
Developing Asia
Source: IEA 2001

CO2 Emissions: Share of Developing
Asia, OECD and other Regions
1981 1999
30% 25%
53%
58%
OECD OECD
12% 22%
Asia
Asia
Total Co2 emissiions in 1981 = 17815 milliom Total Co2 emissiions in 1999 = 22818 milliom
tonnes tonnes
Source: IEA 2001 OECD Developing Asia Other regions

Average Annual Growth Rates of GDP, Energy Supply and CO2
Emission during 1990-2000
GDP TPES CO2

(1995$)
OECD 2.25 1.65 1.12
Japan 1.29 1.82 1.15
Developing Asia 6.68 4.30 3.23
China 9.84 3.60 2.80
India 5.45 4.69 4.57
Thailand 4.36 8.09 7.22
Malaysia 6.56 8.13 6.87
South Korea 6.45 8.02 6.65
•TPES = Total Primary Energy Supply
•Growth of energy requirement and CO2 in Asia is way above
that of OECD countries
Source IEA 2001
CO2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South Asia)
Energy Intensity
35.0 CO2 Intensity
30.0
'000 Quad TPER/1995 USD
2.50
25.0
20.0 2.00
kg CO2/1995 USD
15.0
1.50
10.0
1.00
5.0
0.0 0.50
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
0.00
Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Srilanka Pakistan OECD Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal
Srilanka Pakistan OECD
Fossil fuel dependence
105.00
95.00 • Energy and CO2 intensity in major

countries much higher than OECD
85.00
% Fossil fuel in TPER
75.00
65.00 average
55.00
45.00
35.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Srilanka Pakistan OECD
Data source: EIA website, March 2004

CO2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel dependence (South
East Asia)
Energy Intensity
CO2 Intens ity
30.00
'000 Quad TPER/1995 USD
25.00 1.8 0
20.00 1.6 0
k g C O 2 /1 9 9 5 U S D
15.00 1.4 0
10.00 1.2 0
5.00 1.0 0
0.00 0.80
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0.60

Indonesia Laos Malaysia Philippines
0.40
Thailand Vietnam OECD
0.20
0.00
199 2 19 93 1994 1995 1996 19 97 19 98 199 9
Indone sia La os Ma la ysia P hilippine s
Tha ila nd Vie t na m OECD
Fossil fuel dependence

110.00
100.00
90.00 Energy Intensity and CO2 intensity are not
80.00
70.00
only higher but also increasing in most
60.00 countries
50.00
40.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Indonesia Laos Malaysia Philippines
Vietnam Thailand OECD

CO2 and Energy intensity and Fossil fuel dependence (Other Asia)
Energy Intensity
'00 0 Q u ad T P ER /1 99 5 U SD
CO2 Intens ity

120.00
100.00 10.00
9.00
80.00
kg C O 2/1995 U SD
8.00
60.00 7.00
6.00
40.00
5.00
20.00 4.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
1.00
0.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
South Korea China Mongolia OECD S out h Kor e a Ch in a Mon go lia OECD
Fos sil fue l de pende nce

105.00
Energy and CO2 intensity of China and

100.00
95.00
90.00
Mongolia are very high compared to OECD
average, though show a declining trend
85.00
80.00
75.00
70.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
S out h Kor e a China Mongolia OECD

Projected CO2 emissions 2000-2025
CO2 emission projections

5,000
4,000
million tonne CO2
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990 2000 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Developing countries Developed Countries EE/FSU
•Without significant efforts in mitigation, Developing country

contribution to total world emissions will be higher than Developed
countries by 2020.
Climate change and Sustainability
• Climate Change could adversely affect many

developing countries in the long run
• GHG Mitigation would enhance sustainable
development

Cereal Production Impact of Climate Change
CGCM1, 2080s
Source: http://www.gfse.at/publ/Powerpoint/18%20Februar/18February_P2_01_IIASA_Shah.ppt
Fossil fuel consumption increase has both
long and short term implications
 On Environment – e.g., increased air
pollution
 On economy – e.g., dependency on imports
of energy

PM10 concentration (1999) in selected cities in the
world
200
PM10, micrograms per cubic meter
160
120
80
40
0
on i n
K g
Ta ng
u
en g
u
Sh ow
Ch t a
Ca i ro
ad
La an
u
i
t ta
Lu ur
n
elh
gd
Zh an
ho
ho
A yua
Ch anj
r
ui
ji
ab
Jin
ul
ka
Ca
y
an
en
gz
Be
D
nz
gq
ck
lc
en
ed
Ti
Ja
i
hm
Source: World Development Indicators 2003
Out of 16 cities in the world with PM10 concentration > 100 micrograms/m3, 15
cities are in Asia and 14 of them are in China and India.
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SO2 concentration (1990-98) in the selected cities in the world
450
400
SO 2, micrograms per cubic meter
350
300
250
WHO guideline = 50 micrograms per cubic meter
200
150
100
50
Sh ma
rio
ng
Ta g
ui
o
ng
an
g
de an
Li hou
Q bo
l
n
w
bu
n
da
Ch yan
ha
ua
sh
i ji
ui
co
hr
ya
Jin
ne
a
Zi
ng
tan
ns
oh
nz
iy
an
gq
Be
Te
os
ui
en
Ja
A
ui
ok
La
up
Is
on
G
Y
o
Ri
Source: World Development Indicators 2003
Out of 30 cities exceeding WHO guideline in the world, 23 cities are in Asia
and 20 cities are only in China.
Energy and Urban Air pollution

Implications of growth on Development
Energy import dependency, %
Import dependency is
Country/Region 1990 2000 increasing
China -3.4 5.9 Higher important
dependency can make
India 16.1 27.1 economies vulnerable to
Other South Asia 40.2 45.5 fluctuations in energy
prices
South East Asia -37.7 -4.0
This introduces long term
Developing Asia 1.1 11.6 growth uncertainties
OECD 28.0 29.8

Data source: IEA (2002b)

Fuel Import Dependency of Thailand
under CO2 reduction targets
85
Energy Import Dependency (%)
Base case ER5

ER10 ER15
75
65
55
45
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Primary Energy Mix under CO2 Emission Reduction Targets (1)
60
Coal Natural Gas
 Significant Biomass
80
Base ER5
50 ER10 ER15 70 Base ER5
40 60
ER10 ER15 use at all ER target
Mtoe
Mtoe
50
30
40
20 30 Coal use under
10 20
10
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
- ER15
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
60
Oil
25
Biomass
 Noticeable in Oil
Base ER5
55
ER10 ER15 20
50
45 15
use under ER15.
Mtoe
Mtoe
40
10
Natural gas share
Base ER5
35
ER10 ER15

30 5
25
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
16
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14
12 IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
What does Renewable Energy imply for
Sustainable Development?
 Biomass – example of sustainable energy resource
 Biomass resource development helps mitigate
GHG emissions and provides sustainable
development benefits through rural employment
generation
 RETs like wind, solar, hydro also improve the
local environment
 CDM+Sustainable Development?

NO2, SO2 Emissions in Thailand under CO2 Reduction Targets
Total NOx Emission Total SO2 Emission

1,100 1,400
Base case
1,000 Base case
ER5 1,200
900 ER10 ER5
1,000
T hous and tons
ER15 ER10
Thousand tons
800
700 800 ER15

600 600
500
400
400
200
300
200 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
 Total cumulative NO2 emission in  Total cumulative SO2 emission in

ER15 8.6% less than in Base case ER15 35.4% less than in Base case
during 2000-2030 during 2000-2030
 SO2 reduction higher than NO2

The Factors for high CO2 growth in
developing countries
 High growth in GDP
 High dependence on fossil fuel
 Inefficient use of energy resources
 What prospects for CDM?

Sectoral Energy Related CO2 Emission in
Asian Countries
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Sectoral contribution to National CO2 eq. emissions
What are the sources of GHG emissions? And how big?
BANGLA- CAMBO- INDO- PAK-

AZERBAIJAN DESH BHUTAN DIA NESIA ISTAN
Total Emissions and

Removals (Gg) 59886 76419 632 59445 883198 155287
Energy (%) 87.91 25.93 15.00 2.99 20.10 53.50
Fugitive emissions (%
of energy emissions) 17.68 0.74 0.00 0.00 10.77 7.01
Industrial Process (%) 2.41 1.95 21.16 0.08 0.00 7.26
Manure Management
(%) 1.05 2.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.59
Forest and Grassland
conversion (Gg) -5.86 2.32 0.00 76.06 34.33 0.00
Solid Waste (%) 2.24 1.21 0.00 0.01 0.00 1.24
Wastewater treatment 1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13
GHG emissions from National Communications ( year 1994)

Contribution to country CO2 eq emissions
MALAY- PHILI- SOUTH

SIA PPINES SRI LANKA KOREA THAILAND VIETNAM
Total Emissions and
Removals (Gg) 144193 154812 56696 285115 307621 29185
Energy (%) 58.54 31.86 43.97 85.77 42.13 85.96
Fugitive emissions (% of
energy)
14.76 0.46 0.01 2.11 3.14 3.91
Industrial Process (%) 3.45 6.84 0.53 6.18 5.19 13.04
Manure Management
(%) 1.09 0.00 1.74 0.03 0.95 0.01
Forest and Grassland
conversion (Gg) 5.30 42.34 6.61 0.00 19.72 0.19
Solid Waste (%) 15.19 2.75 17.41 0.00 0.13 4.77
Wastewater treatment 3.20 1.22 0.02 2.17 0.11 0.13

Sectoral Share in CO2 emissions in Selected countries in 2000
Elec. & Heat Unalocated. autoproducers Other Energy industries
Manu. & Ind. Transport Other
100
90
80
Sectoral share of CO2, %
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
ld
a
ia
an
al
a
h
in
EC
or
s
ep
an
st
de
In
Ch
W
ki
N
O
iL
la
Pa
ng
Sr
Ba
Source: World energy Council

• Electricity, Manufacturing & Industry and Transport are the main source of
energy related emissions
• In Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, China and Thailand electricity sector
contributes 30-50% of energy related CO2 emissions
Sectoral Share in CO2 emissions in Selected countries in 2000
Elec. And Heat Unallocated Autoproducers Other Energy Industries

Manuf. & Ind Transport Other Sectors
100%
Sectoral share of CO 2 (% )
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Transport sector contributes around 30% in Srilanka, Malaysia,

Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
Manufacturing accounts for over 30% in China, Bangladesh,
Nepal, Vietnam
AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24 – 26 March, 2004
th th
Types of Energy Related CDM projects
– Energy efficiency improvement projects

– Fuel switching to cleaner fossil fuels
– Renewables projects
– Cogeneration
– Other projects

What are the prospects for energy
efficiency related CDM projects?
 Gaps in energy efficiency can provide the
answer

Efficiency gaps in Power sector (1)
 Supply Side
– Generation efficiency gap
– T & D efficiency gap
 Demand side
– End use energy efficiency gap

Potential CDM projects in Power sector (2)
Efficiency Gaps in Power Sector
Generation Efficiency Gaps

 Large gap in generation efficiency of coal fired plants between most
Asian countries and the best practice country (BPC) in the world. Coal
fired power generation in Asia are approximately 9% less efficient as
compared to that in OECD.
 The efficiency gaps are obviously much larger when they are
measured with reference to the efficiency of the best available
technology (BAT).
 There exists a large potential for the reduction of coal consumption

and CO2 emission if the electricity generation is based on BAT or best
practiced technology (BPT) instead of the existing inefficient
technologies.

Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps – Coal
Electricity generation efficiency for Coal in 1999
50.00
Best Practice efficiency
45.00
40.00
Eff. gap
35.00
30.00
25.00
%
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Data source: IEA, 2002
Efficiency gain by 1% in China and India would reduce CO2 by 24 and 11.6
million tonne respectively in 2000

Electricity Generation Efficiency Gaps - Gas
Electricity generation efficiency gap for Gas in 1999
50.00 Best Practice efficiency

45.00
40.00 Eff. gap
35.00
30.00
25.00
%
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Data source: IEA, 2002

Electricity Transmission and Distribution Losses
 Large transmission and distribution efficiency gaps
Percent (%)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
OECD
China
Thailand
Malaysia
World
Indonesia
Asia
Vietnam
Phillipines
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
India
Cambodia
Myanmar

Potential CDM projects in Power sector (5)
Electricity Transmission and Distribution Losses (contd..)
 T&D losses as a percentage of total generation in some Asian

countries range from 14 % in Vietnam to as high as 32 % in
Myanmar.
 T&D losses in a well designed system can normally be within 10%,
reducing technical losses appears to be a promising option for
reducing the generation requirements as well as reductions CO2
emissions.
 1% of T&D loss reduction in Pakistan from 1995 to 2018 would
result in cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 24 to 26 million
tons.
 Gross savings per kW of power demand avoided due to T&D loss
reduction could be in the range of $ 1372 to 1770, which are
significantly higher than the new T&D capacity cost per kW.
(Shrestha and Azhar, 1998)

End-use Device Efficiency Gaps
– Lamps: Lighting accounts for a large share in residential sectoral

electricity consumption (e.g., 28% in India, 32.8% in Pakistan, 32%
in Sri Lanka). Incandescent lamps, which use 3 to 4 times more
electrical energy than compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) are most
widely used in many Asian developing countries, e. g. India,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.
– Air conditioners (ACs): Air conditioning accounts for a major share
of electricity consumption in the commercial sector. Its share varies
from 20% in Pakistan to 70% in Thailand. However, the widely
used ACs in Thailand till few years ago used about 45% more
electrical power than the efficient ones.
– Electric motors: Mostly, standard motors are used as industrial
drives in India, Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia and Sri
Lanka. They are also used for agricultural water pumping in India.
The efficiency of these motors is, however 3 to 7% less than that of
energy efficient motors.

What environmental Benefits from improved energy
efficiency in the power sector?
Country Planning CO2 (106 tons) SO2 (103 tons) NOx (103 tons)
Period Emission reduction Emission reduction Emission reduction
NREB, India 2003-17 538 1,744 965

Pakistan 2000-14 92 206. 313
Sri Lanka 2000-17 22 48 32
Thailand 2003-17 62 651 134
Vietnam 2003-17 115 123 391
Source: Shrestha and Bhattacharya (1998) and Shrestha and Bhattacharya (2002)

Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Cleaner Thermal CDM Projects in
Selected Asian Countries
Candidate Country Capacity (MW) Marginal CO2 emission

CDM Project abatement cost reductions (106
($/tonne CO2) tonnes)
IGCC Sri Lanka 300 83 2.0
Thailand 500 12 10.0
Yunnan-China 300 16 9.2
PFBC Sri Lanka 300 115 0.8
Thailand 500 100 4.0
CFBC Yunnan-China 300 16 9.2
CC-LNG Sri Lanka 500 31 15.3
Source: ARRPEEC (2003)

Wide variations in MAC for CTTs:
 IGCC: 12 $/tonne (Thailand) to 83 $/tonne of CO2(Sri Lanka)
 PFBC: 100 $/tonne (Thailand) to 115 $/tonne CO2 (Sri Lanka)
 CC-LNG: 31 $/tonne CO (Sri Lanka)
2

Incremental cost of CO2 Abatement ($/ton CO2) in Thailand during
2000 – 2030
• The average incremental cost of

Total CO2 emission reduction (Million tons)
CO2 abatement (IAC) would
120
increase from $28 per ton of CO2
Incremental cost ($/tons)

100
in ER5 case to $111 per ton of
CO2 in ER15 case. 80
60
• At IAC of 28 $/tCO2, about 142
million tons of CO2 could be 40
mitigated (cumulative) during 20

2010-2030. 100 300 500 700 900 1,100
• At IAC of $46/ tCO2 and

$111/tCO2, 468 and 978 million
tons of CO2 (cumulative) could be
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reduced respectively. IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) of Selected Renewable CDM
Projects in Selected Asian Countries
In a study of selected RETs based CDM projects in Yunnan- China,

NREB-India, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet nam by ARRPEEC (2003)
wide variations in MAC are observed:
SolarPV: 12 $/tonne to 364 $/tonne of CO2

Wind:11 $/tonne to 36 $/tonne of CO2
Geothermal: 5 $/tonne to 73 $/tonne of CO2
BIGCC: 3 $/tonne to 94 $/tonne of CO2
Mini-Hydro: 2.2 $/tonne of CO2 (Thailand)
Limited prospect under presently relatively low CER price.

Energy efficiency gap in steel making
Bars for each country / region refers to years 1980, 1990, and 2000 in that order
Source: www.worldenergy.org/ date 20th March 2004
Efficiency gap between Asian developing countries and Japan 0.4 toe/ton

Energy efficiency gap in cement production
Source: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ies/iespubs/45292.pdf
•Emissions reduction of 29.7 Million tonne of CO2 in India and 260 million
tonne of CO2 in China if both countries can achieve best practice efficiency

Potential for Cogeneration in ASEAN
Source: www.cogen2.net
Date: 16th March 2004

Sugar industries:
Fuel availability and cogeneration potential
Country Sugar cane Bagasse Max. Power
production production Generation
(1,000 tonnes) (1,000 tonnes) Potential
(GWh/year)
Indonesia 31,000 8,990 2,997
Philippines 21,000 6,090 2,030
Thailand 54,000 15,660 5,220
Vietnam 12,000 3,480 1,160
Total 118,000 34,220 11,407
Bagasse = Sugar cane * 0.29; 1 kWh = 3 kg of bagasse (including steam for process)
Source: www.cogen3.net (Date: 16th March 2004)

Palm oil industries:
Country FFB Residue Max.Power
(GWh/year)
Indonesia 25,000 10,500 4,200
Malaysia 42,000 17,640 7,056
Philippines 300 126 50
Thailand 2,300 966 386
Total 69,600 29,232 11,693
Residue = Fresh Fruit Bunch * 0.42; 1 kWh = 2.5 kg of residues (including steam for process)
Source: www.cogen3.net Date: 16th March 2004

Rice industries:
Country Paddy Rice husk Max. Power
(GWh/year)
Indonesia 51,000 11,220 7,480
Malaysia 2,000 440 293
Philippines 11,000 2,420 1,613
Thailand 22,000 4,840 3,227
Vietnam 28,000 6,160 4,107
Total 114,000 25,080 16,720
Rice husk = Paddy * 0.22; 1 kWh = 1.5 kg of rice husk (including steam for process)
Source: www.cogen3.net Date: 16th March 2004

Final Remarks
 Energy efficiency gaps and high dependence on fossil fuel present

challenges as well as opportunity: CDM as vehicle for Sustainable
Development
 Not all energy efficient and renewable technologies necessarily meet
the economic criterion for CDM projects.
 Economic viability also depends upon the market for Certified
Emission Reductions (CERs). Presently, demand for CER is low
hence the low price for CER (2 to 3 $/t CO2).
 Several energy efficient technologies (EET) and RET projects may
appear economically unattractive as CDM projects at present due to
low market demand and price for CER.
 However if countries like U.S. and Russia are to ratify the Kyoto
protocol, market for CDM will grow significantly, resulting in higher
CER prices and more CDM projects would than be economically
attractive.

Final Remarks (2)
 Incremental CO2 abatement cost for a CDM project can

vary across countries.
 Regional level energy development may offer larger
potential for CDM projects in South Asia.
 Careful cost benefit analysis of potential projects necessary
 Capacity building is essential for CDM project preparation
and implementation in the South Asian countries.

Specific energy consumption of various
types of brick Kilns (tonnes of coal equivalent per
100, 000 bricks)
Clamp Kiln: 30-48

Bull’s Trench Kiln: 20-24
Fixed Chimney: 16-20
Vertical Shaft Brick Kiln: 10-13

Potential and installed capacity of selected RETs in selected Asian
Countries
Country Potential Installed Capacity (MW)

Solar Wind Biomass Mini Solar Wind Biomass Mini
(MW) (MW) Hydro (PV) Hydro
(MW)
India 7 kWh/ 20,000 17,000 10,000 57 1702 98 217
m 2/day
Sri Lanka 5.4 200 10,000 88 0.360 3 - 12.5
kWh/m2/day
Nepal 3-4 200 200 0.130 - - 4.87
kWh/m2/day
Source: www. teriin.org; RETs Asia, 2003; Wind Energy Monthly

Marginal Abatement Costs in the Power sector
$/tonne of CO2 at 1998 prices
Country/Regions CO2 emission reduction targets

5% 10% 15% 20% 30%
Yunnan-China 1.0 4.3 7.3 7.9 10.6
NREB-India 1.8 3.4 5.4 - -
Sri Lanka - 12.5 - 15.5 18.3
Thailand 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.3
Vietnam 2.4 2.8 3.2 4.1 5.5
Source: ARRPEEC (2003)
MAC Ranges from:

 1.0 to 2.5 $/tonne of CO at 5% reduction target
2
2
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2
IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004
Average unit consumation of energy for cement
production

Potential CO2 emission from Cement
–Project by Cement plant in India – increasing flyash content in cement from

10% to 13% - results in emission reduction from 0.813 tCO2/t cement (process
emission + thermal energy emission + electricity energy emission) – for a
annual production of 1.83 million ton production emission reduction is 22467
tCO2
Energy related CO2 emission by region
Developing countries CO2 emission to exceed that of industrialized countries by

2025. Presents challenges and opportunities for mitigation.
Implications of growth on Development
•Increased urban pollution – developing country cities are the most

polluted cities today
Major sources of emission
 Energy consumption is the major source of GHG

emissions
 In some countries Fugitive emissions (Azerbaijan,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan) fugitive emissions from gas
production are significant
 Industrial process emissions for almost all some countries
are significant – cement sector primarily
 Solid waste and industrial waste related emissions for
Malaysia, Sri lanka, Kyrgyzstan are significant
 Forest and Grassland conversions represent deforestation
related emissions – countries like Philippines, Thailand,
Malaysia have very high emissions from this category

Sustainable development
 Issues in growth in energy requirement
– Huge investment outlay to meet the growth
 Energy production infrastructure ( USD 1000 billion in next
10 years for India to meet just the electricity generation
infrastructure)
 Energy distribution infrastructure
– Import dependency can seriously affect economic
stability
– Environmental implications
 Urban air pollution due to increased fuel use in transportation
 Waste generation and disposal (e.g., coal ash)
 Indoor health issues in rural areas
 Acid rains – SO2 emissions in South Asia and South East Asia
are expected to grow 150% and 200% over 2002 by 2030
under certain growth scenarios

Sustainable development
 Waste management
– MSW in South Asia and South East Asia 150% and 100% (200
million ton and 100 million ton respectively) by 2030
– Air and water pollution from disposal of solid waste in urban areas
– Water pollution from industrial waste
– Opportunity cost of Land for disposal of waste is high – a serious
problem
– Agriculture residue and animal waste in rural area - air pollution
as well as loss of resource
 Forests
– Ecological impacts of forest degradation and deforestation
– Loss of livelihoods for population dependent on forest in
developing countries
– Climatic impacts on forest will be enhanced

Types of CDM projects & SD
 Energy sector – key to sustainable economic

development
– Reducing costs of energy infrastructure
 Efficiency in supply (better technologies; cogeneration)
 Efficiency in use (steel, cement, waste heat recovery,
residential, etc. )
– Environmental benefits
 Fuel options (coal to oil/gas; oil to gas; fossil fuel to renewable
energy)
 Use of agri waste and renewable to meet rural energy demand

Types of CDM projects & SD
 Waste management
– Urban solid waste – methane capture and use
 Reduce air pollution
 Reduce water pollution
 Reduce requirement for land
 Provides alternative energy resources lower dependence on
fossil fuel
– Agriculture residue and animal waste
 Indoor health using biogas
 Rural electricity – residential and for economic growth
 Forests – ecological protection

Submitted W-t-E projects
Project Waste Annual Emission Emission Other
Title handled per Electricity reduction reduction benefits
day (tonne) produced (methane (fossil fuel
(MWh) capture) (T displaced)
CO2 eq) (T CO2 eq
Salvador 3150 315000 904942 157500
Landfill
capture
Biomethana 300 40000 101848 30000 75 tpd of
tion, organic
Lucknow manure
Landfill gas 2000 288 51000
capture,
Brazil
Durban 67800 384512 56960
landfill
CDM – SD in developing countries
Development
Climate
CDM and SD spac
Energy (supply an
demand)
Waste
management
(urban and
agriculture)
Forestry
Environment

Share of Energy Sector GHG Emissions
 IEA estimates that at the global level, carbon emissions from

energy related activities represent about 70% of all GHG
emissions. Non-carbon energy-related emissions represent
another 10-15%.
Source: World Energy Council (http://www.worldenergy.org/ accessed on 3
March 2004 )
 The U.S. energy sector CO2 emission in 1997 accounted for 86% of
total GHG emissions of the country (Toman, 2001).

Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in South Asian Countries,
2000
Commercial Energy Consumption1 Carbon

Dioxide
Emissions3
Total (Million
(Quadrillion Natural metric tons
Btu) Petroleum Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectric Other of carbon)
Bangladesh 0.50 30% 68% 1% 0% 1% 0% 7.7
Bhutan 0.01 24% 0% 21% 0% 55% 0% 0.1
India 12.67 32% 7% 53% 1% 6% 0.2% 253.3
Maldives 0.004 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.1
Nepal 0.06 57% 0% 14% 0% 24% 5% 0.8
Pakistan 1.91 41% 42% 5% 0% 12% 0% 29.5
Sri Lanka 0.18 78% 0% 0% 0% 22% 0% 2.6
Total 15.28 34% 13% 44% 1% 7% 0.2% 294.1
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Database, May 2002
Share of fossil fuels ranges from 45% (Bhutan) to 99% (Bangladesh). Coal
share highest in India (53%).
Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in South-east Asian
Countries, 2000
Total
(Quad Petrole Natural Geotherm
BTU) um Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear al etc. CO2
Cambodia 0.01 94.63 0.00 0.00 5.37 0.00 0.00 0.15
China 39.67 25.77 3.13 63.95 6.91 0.43 0.03 831.74
Indonesia 4.63 46.94 27.84 19.59 2.26 0.00 1.11 87.13
Korea, North 2.84 6.16 0.00 86.04 7.80 0.00 0.00 67.19
Korea, South 8.06 55.06 10.24 21.04 0.30 13.28 0.06 120.80
Laos 0.01 36.73 0.00 0.18 91.15 0.00 0.00 0.10
Malaysia 2.27 42.06 42.12 3.62 3.27 0.00 0.00 36.15
Mongolia 0.07 26.53 0.00 71.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59
Philippines 1.25 56.74 0.55 16.32 6.55 0.00 20.36 18.62
Thailand 2.90 55.78 28.17 12.68 2.22 0.00 0.83 48.49
Vietnam 0.76 50.54 6.26 20.26 22.94 0.00 0.00 12.56
CO2emission are in million metric ton of CO 2 equivalent;

Energy consumption by fuel source is in %age

Technical Potential for Primary Energy Savings in Steel making in 1995
If India reduces energy intensity of steel production by 10% (3.7 GJ/tonne) –

total energy saved will be 88 million GJ (4.6 million tonnes of Coal equivalent)
per year in 1995
Potential CDM projects in industrial sector
 Iron and Steel industry
 Cement industry
 Co-generation: Co - generation efficiency = upto 90%

Conventional power efficiency = about 35%
– Sugar Industry
– Pulp and Paper Industry
 Efficient brick kilns
 Electricity DSM programs in industry

CO2 and Energy intensities and Fossil fuel
dependence
CO2 intensity
2.5 Energy Intensity
2 35.00
30.00
kgCO2/ 1995 USD
1.5 OECD
Non-OECD 25.00
'000 QuadTPER/1995 USD

1
20.00 OECD
0.5 15.00 Non-OECD
10.00
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 5.00
0.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Fossil Fuel Dependence
92.00
90.00 Higher growth rates of non-OECD energy

88.00
and CO2 emissions due to :
86.00 OECD
Non-OECD
84.00
82.00
•Significantly higher energy and CO2
80.00 emission intensities
78.00
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
•Higher dependence on fossil fuels
Data source: EIA website, March 2004 •Higher GDP growth rates

Natural Gas Reserves in Selected Asian Countries
800
600
billion cu m
400
200
0
Myanmar Bangladesh India Pakistan
Source:http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/bm.html

CDM projects through regional energy trade/development in
South Asia
 Hydropower development (e.g. in Nepal and Bhutan)

– Displacement of thermal in India and other countries
 Natural gas based electricity generation

- Exploration and regional development of gas pipeline in Pakistan, India and
Bangladesh
Fuel switching:
 oil to gas in transport sector
 coal/oil to gas in industrial boilers
 coal/oil to gas for cooking

Potential CDM projects in Transport sector
 Electric vehicles (with Non thermal power

supply)
 Electric rope - ways (with Non thermal
power supply)
 Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) (with Non
thermal power supply)
 Use of Bio-diesel/ethanol/methanol etc.

Potential CDM projects in Residential sector
 Cooking
– Use of biogas as a cooking fuel
– Improved cook stoves
– Biomass plantation for fuelwood
 Lighting
– CFL, Slim tubes, electronic ballast
 Water heating
– Solar Water heater

Potential CDM projects in Commercial sector
 DSM programs
– Efficient A/Cs, Refrigerators, Lamps

Types of steel projects
 pulverized coal injection up to 40% in the blast
furnace (primary steel)
 Heat recovery from sinter plants and coke ovens
(primary steel)
 Recovery of process gas from coke ovens, blast
furnaces and basic oxygen furnaces
– Steel plant in India, producing 1.6 million ton steel has
submitted CDM project for recovery of BOF gas (80
NM3 per ton of steel with calorific value 2000
kcal/NM3) – will result in 94.84 GWh of electricity and
resultant emission reduction of 87895 tCO2.(15 MWh
coal power plant)
 Power recovery from blast furnace offgases
(primary steel)
Types of steel projects
 Replacement of open-hearth furnaces by basic

oxygen furnaces (primary steel);
 Application of continuous casting and thin slab
casting;
 Scrap preheating in electric arc furnaces
 (secondary steel);
 Oxygen and fuel injection in electric arc furnaces
(secondary steel);
 Efficient ladle preheating;

Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism Opportunities in Asia

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Energy Use and Clean Development Mechanism

25th March 2004

 Economic Growth, Energy requirement and

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

1.3 TPES 1.3 GDP

Source: IEA 2001

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

Source: IEA 2001 OECD Developing Asia Other regions

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

GDP TPES CO2

35.0 CO2 Intensity

Fossil fuel dependence

95.00 • Energy and CO2 intensity in major

Data source: EIA website, March 2004

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

CO2 Intens ity

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0.60

Fossil fuel dependence

Data source: EIA website, March 2004

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

CO2 Intens ity

Fos sil fue l de pende nce

Energy and CO2 intensity of China and

S out h Kor e a China Mongolia OECD

Data source: EIA website, March 2004

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

CO2 emission projections

•Without significant efforts in mitigation, Developing country

• Climate Change could adversely affect many

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

Source: World Development Indicators 2003

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

OECD 28.0 29.8

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

Base case ER5

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

Total NOx Emission Total SO2 Emission

700 800 ER15

 Total cumulative NO2 emission in  Total cumulative SO2 emission in

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

BANGLA- CAMBO- INDO- PAK-

Total Emissions and

GHG emissions from National Communications ( year 1994)

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

MALAY- PHILI- SOUTH

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

Manu. & Ind. Transport Other

Source: World energy Council

Elec. And Heat Unallocated Autoproducers Other Energy Industries

Transport sector contributes around 30% in Srilanka, Malaysia,

– Energy efficiency improvement projects

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

Generation Efficiency Gaps

 There exists a large potential for the reduction of coal consumption

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004

Electricity generation efficiency for Coal in 1999

Data source: IEA, 2002

AIT IGES-URC Workshop in Asia, 24th – 26th March, 2004