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M
= (C x PVIFAk,n)+ ------
(1 + k)n
k is the “Yield to Maturity” or “Redemption Yield”
- it is the average rate of return which
investors require from the bond. Its value
determines whether a bond sells at par, at a
discount or at a premium.
It represents the cost of borrowed capital
for the firm.
Example:
Face value (= maturity or par value), i.e. M = £100
Coupon rate = 4 percent, so I = £4
Maturity 4 years
Market value (Vb) = £89.84; i.e. investors are required to
pay £89.84 to purchase the following set of cash flows
Year: 1 2 3 4
Cash Flow: £4 £4 £4 £4 + £100
At a discount rate of 7%, the Net Present Value of this
investment will be exactly equal to the purchase price:
(£4 x PVIFA7%,4) + (£100/1.074)
= (£4 x 3.3872) + (£100/1.3108) = 89.84
In other words, the IRR of investment in the bond (i.e. its
‘yield to maturity’) is 7%.
This is the market’s expected rate of return on the bond -
it is the rate of discount applied by the market to the
bond’s cash flows, resulting in the market value of £89.84.
Another example: M = £100, I = £8, n = 4 years.
and
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Capital Market Efficiency
Efficient Market Hypotheses
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is an
investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat
the market" because stock market efficiency causes
existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect
all relevant information.
three form levels:
Strong form market efficiency
Price of security in market reflects all information –
public as well as private, insider information.
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Capital Market Efficiency
Semi-strong market efficiency
only public information is reflected in security’s market price.
Investors with access to insider/ private information will be
able to earn abnormal returns.
Example: Public stock markets in developed countries.
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Interest Rate Risk
Bond Theorems
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Interest Rate Risk
Bond Theorems
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Exhibit 8.2: Relation Between Bond
Price Volatility and Maturity
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Interest Rate Risk
Bond Theorems
3. For a given change in interest rates, lower-Coupon Bonds
Have greater Interest Rate Risk than higher -coupon bonds.
The lower the bond’s coupon rate, the greater the proportion
of the bond’s cash flow investors will receive at maturity.
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4. Interest rate risk increases as maturity increases, but at a
decreasing rate. (see Exhibit 8.2)
5. Capital Gains from an Interest Rate Decline Exceed the
Capital Loss from an Equivalent Interest Rate Increase
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Marketability
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Call Provision
Gives the firm issuing bonds option to purchase the bond from
an investor at a predetermined price (the call price). i.e.
Investors must sell the bond at that price)
When bonds are called, investors suffer financial loss because
they are forced to surrender their high-yielding bonds and
reinvest their funds at lower prevailing market rate of interest.
Bonds with call provisions sell at higher market yields than
comparable non-callable bonds
Difference in interest rates between a callable bond and a
comparable non-callable bond call interest premium (CIP)
CIP = icall - incall > 0
Bonds issued during periods when interest rates are high
are likely to be called when interest rates decline; these bonds
have a high CIP 27
Default Risk
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Bond Ratings
Individuals and small businesses must rely on outside
agencies for information on default potential of
bonds.
The most prominent credit rating agencies
internationally are: Fitch IBCA, Moody’s Investors
Service (Moody’s) and Standard & Poor’s (S&P).
Credit rating services rank bonds in order of
expected probability of default; and publish ratings
as letter grades.
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Exhibit 8.4: Corporate Bond Rating Systems
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Exhibit 8.5: Default Risk Premiums
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The Term Structure of Interest Rates
This is the relationship between yield and term to maturity. Three basic
shapes (slopes) of yield curves in the marketplace:
1. Ascending or normal yield curves are upward sloping yield curves
that occur when the economy is growing.
2. Descending or inverted yield curves are downward sloping yield
curves that occur when the economy is declining or heading into
recession.
3. Flat yield curves imply interest rates are unlikely to change in the
near future.
Three economic factors determine shape (slope) of yield curve:
4. Real rate of interest
5. Expected rate of inflation
6. Interest rate risk
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1. The real rate of interest varies with the business cycle.
Highest rates are seen at end of a period of business
expansion, and vice versa, . Lowest rates at the bottom of a
recession. Changes in expected future real rate of interest can
affect the slope of the yield curve.
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