Floods to Droughts

Wendy L. Pearson, Hydrologist

NOAA NWS Central Region Headquarters, Kansas City, MO

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 Living Near the River

http://www.classzone.com/books/earth_science/terc/content/investigations/e
s1308/es1308page01.cfm
 NOAA’s NWS Mission

• Provide weather, hydrologic, and climate

forecasts and warnings for the United
States for the protection of life and
property and the enhancement of the
national economy
Flood Safety

http://www.floodsafety.noaa.gov

http://www.floodsafety.com/

* Vehicles can be swept

downstream in as little as
6 inches of moving water.
Water Cycle
How Water is Used & Reused
Reliable Water Information and Services for
Decision Makers
Water
Management
Drought Mitigation
Weather and
Flood Control
Climate
Information: Public Safety (Flash
Floods, Debris Flow)
Water Information
Temperature Water Supply
Precipitation Hydrology and Water Waterway
Resource Modeling Commerce
Wind, …
Power Generation
Agriculture
Recreation
“Summit to the Sea”
Ecosystem Health
Socioeconomic
Sciences
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 What is a Flood?

• Flash Flood

• River Flood

• Low Water Crossing

• Hurricane Storm Surge

• Hurricane Inland Flooding

• Snowmelt Flooding

• Overland Flooding

• Dam Failures
 Severity of Flooding

• Minor Flooding

• Moderate Flooding

• Major Flooding

• Record Flooding
 Frequency of Flooding

100 year flood = 1% Flood

500 year flood = 0.2% Flood
 NOAA Water Forecasts: Water Predictions
for
Where you are, when you need them Life Decisions
• Snowpack
• Precipitation
• Soil moisture
• River flow
• Surface storage
• Ground water
River
Developed
Shrubs/Grass
Agriculture
Wetlands
Forecast Basin
Forecast Point
Lewistown, PA
Flood warnings for
local communities
1984 flood

Critical hydrologic
information for 1972 flood

neighborhoods 1999 flood

and watersheds
Working Together: 1996 flood

Federal, Tribal, State, and Local Water supply and soil

Agencies, Private Sector and Academia condition forecasts for
drought risk management
NOAA Hydrologic Service Delivery

13 River Forecast Centers (Areas are in Color)

122 Weather Forecast Offices (Areas Outlined in Black)

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)

Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Camp Springs, MD 12
 NWS Products and Services
River Forecast Centers

(numerous)
Via Satellite,
LFWS Coop Obs.
NCEP QPF

(numerous)

Gridded Products Tabular Forecast

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WFO NEXRAD 1

Hydrograph Text Products

WFO NEXRAD 2
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Partners
WFO NEXRAD 3

NCEP Graphical and • Short and Extended Range Streamflow Forecasts

Gridded Products
• Flash Flood Guidance
• Interagency Support Activities
• Hydrometeorological Discussions
• Hydrometeorological Support Products and
Services
 NWS Products and Services
Weather Forecast Offices

NEXRAD
(many)

RFC Graphical, Gridded,

and Tabular Products
x F lood Waring
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ (many)
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x x x x ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
x ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Warnings
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Public Forecasts
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• Public Forecast and Warnings
• Flash Flood Forecast and Warnings
• Service Hydrologist Customer Coordination
• Warning Coordination Meteorologist
Service Coordination / Outreach
NCEP Weather and Climate
Graphical and
Gridded Products
Gridded Products
River level data
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
(AHPS) http://www.weather.gov/ahps/
• Provide improved water availability and
flood warning information by leveraging
NOAA’s infrastructure and expertise
• Modernize services through infusion of
new science and technology
• Enhanced decision support
• Quantification of forecast certainty
• More accurate and timely forecasts and
warnings
• Flood mapping
• Visually products

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Outlook vs. Forecast
 Probability Information

Two Ensembles:
Conditional Simulations (CS)
• 55 simulations each starting with
the current model states only
• Blend of forecast and historic data
drive the model

Historical Simulation (HS)

• one simulation for entire period of
record
• 55 Hydrographs starting over a
range of initial conditions
• Represents the hydrologic model
climatology

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 Decision Support Information
Conveying Certainty

Difference indicates relative departure from “normal”

Low Flow Information

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Iowa City 2009 Fargo, ND 2009

Cedar Rapids 2008 Cedar Rapids 2009

 Distributed Hydrologic Modeling

• Generate high resolution

soil moisture estimates
• Agricultural use
• Debris flows
• Drought
• Extend to finer scales
• Accommodate land use
change impacts
 Flood Inundation Mapping

Located with NWS

river forecast
locations

Depicts flooding
from minor to
historical levels

Communities can
see potential
impacts to the flood-
prone areas

NOAA is working
with partners;
states, FEMA, USGS,
and USACE to
communicate Flood
Risks.
 NOAA National Weather Service

• AHPS Flood Mapping depends on

partnerships, diligence, dedication,
and commitment.

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 New Business Model for Water Forecasting:
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

The new approach provides:

Historically, organizations and groups:
• Worked independently
• Developed their own unlinked
systems
• Duplicated efforts
• Used disparate tools and processes
• Open system architecture to easily
accommodate addition of models,
data, and procedures
• Modern platform for collaboration
with national/international
agencies, universities, and private
sector to leverage work of others

Historical New
Approach Approach

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 Emerging Strategy to Advance Water
Forecasting
• Enable Full Use of Existing and New Observing Systems
• Accelerate Research-to-Operations
– Incorporate models and science developed by partners
– Deploy integrated (water, climate, ecosystem information) services for
time scales of hours to months

Private Sector

Bureau of
EPA Integrated Water Resources Reclamation
Science and Services (IWRSS)
NOAA’s R&D User Needs and
and Testbeds Requirements

High Resolution Community

NASA
Observations and Hydrologic
Models Prediction System USGS

Regional Demonstration NOAA’s Unified Mission

Projects Delivery and Support Services

USACE USDA

Academia
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 Initial Federal Partnership for Integrated
Water Resources Science and Services

Hydraulic
Hydrology Water
Coastal Engineerin
Program Resources
Services g Center
Institute
Center
Remote
Hydromet
Testbed
NOAA USACE Sensing
Centers
Forecast Cold Regions
Offices Research Lab

USGS
Water
Discipline
Water
Geography Science
Discipline Centers

• Aligning multi-agency collaboration is essential

– Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of consistent water
resources monitoring and forecast information – summit to sea
– Sustain quality of life and the natural environment
– “No water agency can meet the full array of climate change-induced
water problems on its own” 26

Integrating to Address
the Challenges For
All Water Agencies
Integrating Water Science and Services
To address growing demand for
relevant and reliable water
information, we must integrate
our water science and services to
provide our Nation with water
information when and where it is
needed.
• “In this century, the U.S. will be
challenged to provide sufficient quantities
of high-quality water to its growing
population.”
- National Research Council
• Estimates of economic losses from recent
western droughts are “billions of dollars”.
- Western Governors Association
• Competition for increasingly limited
freshwater resources will make “water
supply availability a major economic
driver in the 21st century”.
- Nature
• The provision of adequate fresh-water
resources for humans and ecosystems
will be one of the most critical and
potentially contentious issues facing
society and governments at all levels in
the 21st century.
- American Meteorological Society
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Drought Monitor
 Homework
• Safety is always #1

• Water runs down hill but which way is that?

• What kind of flood is it?

• What were the contributing factors?

• What factors will increase uncertainty of forecast?

• Can I help explain forecasts?

• Societal and Economic Impacts?

• What are the roles and responsibilities of local, state, and

federal organizations involved?

• Media of all types are partners with NOAA NWS. We need

storytellers to tell the flood forecast story!
 When FLOODS make Headlines
• Deaths

• Record Flooding

• Evacuations

• Possible Disasters

• Millions of Sandbags and thousands of

volunteers

• Road closures and washouts

 NWS Message

• Text and Graphics online

• Talking Points and Sound Bites

• Headlines

• Complex Situations

• Scientific Jargon

• Uncertainty
 New Media
• Internet
– U tube

– Online Radio

– TV station web pages

– News Papers Online

– Blogs

– Twitter
 Flood News in Pictures

• http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/
red_river_flooding.html

• http://www.iowaflood.com/

• http://nd.water.usgs.gov/photos/1997RedF
lood/